Random Predictions: Spring Training 2009

In honor of the official start of baseball's pre-pre-pre-season (pitchers and catchers for MLB teams began reporting to camp Friday) I thought that I would share some baseball predictions with you.

Later in the spring, the staff of SFSI will be giving team-by-team (or, at the very least, division-by-division) predictions, but I am going to look more at the storylines (good lord, do I ever hate that term).

At the very least, at the end of the year we can all look back at this and laugh, and if I'm right, maybe I can have John Kruk's job. Or Steve Phillips'. Or, for that matter, Tim McCarver's.

1. The Yankees will NOT win the World Series.

I'm sorry to the Yankee fans in the house, but if there's one thing the past eight years have taught me (other than the fact that former Rangers owners shouldn't be president), it's that spending obscene amounts of money on free agents and ignoring team chemistry doesn't win championships.

CC Sabathia was great with the Brewers last season, that's undeniable. But he's never really dealt with pressure well, even leaving out his terrible showing against the Phillies in the NLDS last year (he was clearly exhausted by that point), he was just pretty good as a youngster in 2001, and he was merely serviceable against the Yankees and got shelled twice by the Red Sox in 2007.

Cleveland and Milwaukee aren't exactly New York, where it can seem like every game is a playoff game when you're under scrutiny. And he will be.

And as highly touted as Mark Teixeira is, he's not much better than David Wright. Look at their numbers; they're very comparable. Nothing against David Wright, I love him to death, but Tex is not Barroid Bonds.

This is not an invincible team. A very good one potentially, but not a lock. And I see them falling short, probably with A-Rod hitting into a double play in a late crucial spot and being showered with syringes.

2. One of the best teams in baseball will not make the playoffs.

As you surely know, the Tampa Bay Rays went to the World Series last year. They beat the Red Sox in the ALCS. Both are in the AL East division. No more than two teams from a division can make the playoffs. Do you see where I'm going with this?

Between the Yankees, Red Sox and Rays, only two can survive (and maybe not even that many, depending on the other two divisions). This prediction presupposes prediction number...

3. The Rays will be good again.

They were young last year, and they fell apart a bit at the tail end. But that experience will help. They're not a perfect team; their bullpen has all the flaws it did during the World Series, since unless ESPN has buried news, they haven't done a lot to fix that bullpen. But if Evan Longoria doesn't hit like 50 home runs, I will be surprised.

But anyway, all three AL East front runners will be good. At most, two can make the post season. Who will be the 2008 Patriots of baseball? I have no idea...I haven't written my division predictions yet. Sorry.

If I had to bet now, though, I would say the Yankees and Red Sox advance, simply because their weaknesses are less glaring.

But the Rays will end up with at least 85-87 wins, I'd say. Most divisions, that would be enough for second, but probably not here, unless A-Rod gets suspended. (Which even as a Red Sox fan, I believe would be a colossal mistake. You will hear more about this later.)

4. The National League will win the All-Star Game.

It's got to happen eventually, doesn't it? And as Rage Against the Machine once said, "What better place than here? What better time than now?"

5. The Mets will not choke in September.

See above.

6. A random team will be really good for no reason.

The Rays did it last year. The Tigers did it in 2006. The Marlins win the World Series in 2003, for goodness' sake. So my prediction? The Royals.

They probably won't blow the doors off of anybody. They will not win their division. But they have a good manager and good young players. Also, Coco Crisp.

I predict third place, and a consolation prize. Oh, and in case you're wondering: in the last two weeks of the year, the Royals play both the Red Sox and Yankees.

So they could play a big part in determining the winner of that division, especially if I'm right about them. They could be a big spoiler.

7. Who am I kidding? The Mets will totally choke again.

In 2007 it was their rotation. Last year it was the bullpen. By the process of elimination, I believe that leaves either the offense or the special teams to collapse this year.

I would bet that in September 2009, the Mets will probably go 0-for-the-month and lose to the Phillies by one game. And I will jump off of something high.

And by that, I mean that I will jump from a great altitude, not that I will consume drugs and try to crowd surf in someone's living room. (Don't try that at home, kids. I haven't either, but it sounds like it could only end badly.)

So that's what will happen in baseball this year. Unless it doesn't, in which case this post can join my "Seattle Mariners 2008 AL West Champions" shirt design and this bullshit in Hell.

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