Why the Atlanta Braves Have a SHOT in 2009

This is an article written especially for little Nick Carlo in Long Island, New York.

He is a big Mets fan and seems to be a little unhappy with my article on why the Mets will not win the National League East.

If you read my last article, you will see that I have picked the Philadelphia Philles to win the NL East and the Atlanta Braves to win the Wild Card.

Now, Nick wanted me to go further in depth on why I think so highly of the Braves, so, here goes:

Projected Opening Day Line-up

1 L CF Josh Anderson

2 R SS Yunel Escobar

3 S 3B Chipper Jones

4 L C   Brian McCann

5 L 2B Kelly Johnson

6 R RF Jeff Francoeur

7 L 1B Casey Kotchman

8 L/R LF Brandon Jones or Gregor Blanco/Matt Diaz

OK, I can admit that this is not anything close to the 1927 Yankees' Murderers Row, but this lineup should be able to put up good a good on-base percentage and average with Chipper Jones, Brian McCann, and Yunel Escobar leading the attack.

Leading off is Josh Anderson, an overall underachieveing outfield prospect who has absolutely stellar speed and good potential for average.

Yunel Escobar projects to bat second, and he has already proven to be good enough to produce an average well above .290.

In the three hole waits Met-killer Chipper Jones.  He is almost a lock to bat .340+, and has always been a solid producer for the Braves.

Next, unless a left field bat is acquired, is the best offensive catcher in baseball, Brian McCann.  Look for him to belt 25 to 30 home runs and hover around a .300 average.

The five and six holes have two options: Kelly Johnson or Jeff Francoeur.  These two can be flipped, and each have about the same offensive potential: 20 home runs and a batting average around .275.

Casey Kotchman can be expected to bat seventh.  Casey has proven to be a good hitter for average in his career with a little bit of pop.  Look for an average around .280 with 11 or 12 home runs.

Finally, the eight hole holds the left field spot.  I expect, once again unless there is a big bopper acquired, there to be a platoon of Matt Diaz, who has raked lefties in his career, and Brandon Jones or Gregor Blaco.  Personally, I prefer Brandon Jones simply because his ceiling for power is significantly higher than Greg White's.

The only real question marks as far as a consistency basis would be left field with its OK platoon situation, and Francoeur (but if his offseason adjustments have any effect, then he should be alright). 

Projected Opening Day Pitching Staff

1 R Derek Lowe

2 R Jair Jurrjens

3 R Javier Vazquez

4 R Kenshin Kawakami

5 ? (in order) L Tom Glavine (if he signs), R Jorge Campillo, L Jo-Jo Reyes, R Charlie Morton, R Tommy Hanson, R James Parr

This is the strength of the 2009 Braves.

From top to bottom, this staff projects to be significantly better than the group from 2008.

The Braves' ace is the great sinker-baller Derek Lowe.  This is a guy who has a arm a lot "younger" than is 35 years may suggest (he's only been starting for 6 years total, so factor in the average SP pitching from 23 and his years as a reliever and his arms probably closer to that of a 32-year-old).

Next, is the 23-year-old Jair Jurrjens.  He proved to be incredibly effective last year and I expect more of the same this year.

Third is the inning-eating strikeout man, Javier Vazquez.  A move to the NL should only lower his 4+ ERA and raise his 200+ K's.

Fourth is Kenshin Kawakami.  He is unproven in the Major Leagues and his transition to the the Bigs could be as smooth as Hiedeki Kuroda's or as rough as Kei Igawa's, I guess we'll all find out together...

The fifth spot is open to all six of the guys I listed.  My personal preference is Tommy hanson, although I know he need more conditioning in the minors, so I'll let Tom Glavine have the spot if he signs.

The Bullpen (when all are healthy)

The most underrated part of this team is the bullpen.

LRP R Jeff Bennett

LRP R Manny Acosta

MRP R Blaine Boyer

MRP L Boone Logan

SU R Peter Moylan

SU R Rafael Soriano

CL L Mike Gonzalez

This pen is solid all the way through, and with the improved rotation this group should get more rested and only be that much more effective.

Overall this team is greatly improved over last year.  If you recall, a lot of sports reporters (major guys like Peter Gammons and Ken Rosenthal) thought that that team had a shot at the World Series.

Once again, I don't expect this group to win the incredibly competitive NL East, but the Wild Card is more than "gettable".

By the Way: here are some examples of Braves-bashing Mets fans: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2009/01/braves-sign-der.html, just look at the comments.