NBA Draft 2012: Setting the Bust Odds for the Top 8 Prospects

There's a reason they call the NBA draft the night of calculated risk.

For every draft choice that ends up as a consistent starter, there will be another who is out of the league as soon as they can remember what happened.

For every future All-Star, there is a future disappointment. That's just the way the draft works, as any and every player is eligible to break out or fall into the most dreaded category of all: bust.

The 2012 NBA draft will be no different than the past, as each pick will offer a new series of highs and lows.

While some may find predictable failure, others will be much more high-profile names. Others may actually be within the top eight picks in the draft.

Even the elite can struggle. So who's going to be a bust?

1. Anthony Davis, Kentucky Wildcats

There's a small population of fans who believe that Anthony Davis will end up as an underwhelming NBA player after such a promising college career.

To each and every one of those people under that belief, I'd like to inform you how outrageous it is to believe such a thing.

While Anthony Davis is in dire need of some meat on his bones, he's one of the safest picks since the turn of the century.

His shot blocking and rebounding skills range well beyond his length and athleticism, as he's one of the best at fighting for position in the paint and imposing his will via patience and intelligent action.

Anthony Davis is no bust; at worst, he's one of the best interior defenders in the NBA.

Bust Odds: 300 to 1

2. Bradley Beal, Florida Gators

The odds come to a more realistic level as the draft goes on. In the case of Bradley Beal, don't expect those odds to increase by too much.

Beal is in prime position to avoid bust status because of one simple trait: he can shoot the basketball.

In a league in which teams can never have enough three-point marksmen (just ask Miami how they like Mike Miller and Shane Battier), Beal has a chance to be one of the best around. If not, he'll still be a valuable asset to any contender as they look to stretch the floor.

Beal possesses the qualities necessary to make a name for himself in the league. He moves well without the ball in his hands, is active on defense and appears to have no limit on his range. As long as the shots keep falling, Beal's career will keep going.

Bust Odds: 100 to 1

3. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Kentucky Wildcats

When your game is based around perimeter defense and a non-stop motor, it's hard to fail in translating your style to the NBA level. As is the case with Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, whose never-say-die attitude alone will keep him on the court.

If we're being perfectly honest, the average bust does not find failure because he can't play the game. Instead, they usually find themselves out of shape after an offseason or two and prove to have a work ethic not worth investing in.

A prime example would be Eddy Curry.

Considering MKG's highest praise is for his work ethic, how could we assume that will suddenly wither away once he's achieved his lifelong dream of reaching the NBA?

With a logical mind, we can't. If nothing else, Kidd-Gilchrist will be a poor man's Tony Allen; something any team would love to have.

Bust Odds: 100 to 1

4. Thomas Robinson, Kansas Jayhawks

If you think Thomas Robinson will suddenly become complacent, you're out of your mind. If it is your belief that the power forward position is the most difficult slot to break through at, you've hit the nail on the head.

A welcomed challenge for one of the hardest working prospects you'll ever find.

Thomas Robinson is an excellent athlete with a well-rounded skill set. He's a defense-first type of player who just so happens to have well-polished back and face to the basket games. He's a menace on the boards, tenacious around loose balls and physical in the paint.

Thomas Robinson will be a respected player at worst. At best, he will be a star.

Bust Odds: 75 to 1

5. Harrison Barnes, North Carolina Tar Heels

The popular bandwagon to jump on these days is that of the "Harrison Barnes won't cut it" brand.

This stems from a lackluster NCAA Tournament in which Barnes failed to recover from the shocking loss of point guard Kendall Marshall, who suffered a wrist injury.

Oh, how quickly we forget the other 60-plus games in which Barnes displayed all the traits of a superstar in the making.

I will not debate the fact that Barnes should have remained in college for another year, as he finally takes the time to piece it all together.

What I will say, however, is that Barnes has three traits that cannot be taught or lost in a mere transition: elite jump shooting, respected leadership qualities and a high basketball IQ. By high, of course, we're speaking about one of the most intelligent players in the nation.

Harrison Barnes could be a star or he could be a consistent rotational option at the 3. Regardless of where he finds middle ground, Barnes is unlikely to end up a bust.

Bust Odds: 50 to 1

6. Dion Waiters, Syracuse Orange

Dion Waiters of Syracuse has established himself as one of the fastest rising prospects available. He's drawn comparisons to NBA superstar Dwyane Wade, as many have cited his top-tier slashing ability as a trait that will transfer over to the next level.

Let's just slow down for a moment, though, and evaluate this as a whole.

Dion Waiters is a respectable athlete whose combination of lateral quickness and a powerful dribble bodes well for his future. He finishes well around the basket, rarely shying away from contact, and has even begun to develop a more consistent mid-range game.

Until he can shoot the basketball on a more consistent basis, however, the threat of a bust is present.

Bust Odds: 30 to 1

7. Andre Drummond, Connecticut Huskies

Andre Drummond has been one of the most heavily-criticized players in this draft class. Many have accused him of lacking the necessary offensive fundamentals to succeed at the NBA level, while others have stated that his defensive prowess just won't transfer over.

Believe it or not, Drummond is actually one of the safer picks in this draft class. Until he develops a more consistent motor, however, the odds of a bust remain at a scary level.

When fully applied, Andre Drummond is an elite interior defender. He's one of the best in the defensive low-post, alters every shot in the paint, crashes the boards well and is not afraid of contact.

While he could cut the fouls down and improve his decision making, the raw ability is there.

Will it make the jump to the next level with him?

Bust Odds: 25 to 1

8. Damian Lillard, Weber State Wildcats

Any time you have a point guard who lights up the scoreboard, excitement will be at a premium. Should you happen to be coming out of a mid-major school where the competition was far from an elite level, concern will be just as high.

This is the case with Damian Lillard, who has skyrocketed to the unanimous choice as the best point guard available. The strange thing is, most of the viewers who rank him this high have never seen him play; highlight videos don't count, basketball fans.

Regardless of that fact, Lillard is an outstanding jump shooter with well above-average athletic ability. He sees the floor well and is as efficient a player as you could ask for. In all likelihood, he will turn into an All-Star point guard.

But can you really feel safe about a pick you know so little about?

Bust Odds: 15 to 1