NBA Draft 2012: Andre Drummond and More Overrated Prospects
Busts are inevitable in the NBA.
No matter how loaded a draft class may be—and 2012's is more than loaded—not all prospects are going to live up to expectations.
Some may be busts of epic proportions, a la Darko Milicic or Robert Swift, but some may be on a lesser scale like Jeff Green. Has he been productive? Yes. Has he lived up to the No. 5 pick? Not so sure.
However, while the severity of this year's busts are completely unknown, you can rest assured there will be some bad picks.
What follows is a look at possible candidates.
Note: All stats come from draftexpress.com
Andre Drummond, PF/C, Connecticut
Let me just get this straight. I hope I'm wrong about Drummond. If he pans out, he has the tools to be one of the most exciting players in the NBA.
He's a specimen at 7'0" and 279 pounds, but he has the lateral movement, quickness and ability to run the floor more like a small forward. When he barrels down the floor, catches the ball at the three-point line, gets to the hoop with two steps and lays it in, it is truly a sight to see.
I hope we can see more of that at the next level.
However, Drummond's offensive game in the halfcourt is just really far away. With his back to the basket (post game), he scored just 0.578 points per possession, which is easily the worst of any big man in this draft.
His free-throw percentage is an anemic 29 percent and his overall efficiency (0.925 PPP) is sixth worst of potential big-man draftees.
Drummond will be a force on the defensive end, there's no doubt about it, but I'm not so sure the next DeAndre Jordan is worth it in the top seven or even top 10.
Perry Jones III, SF/PF, Baylor
Much like Drummond, Jones has elite size (6'11", 234 pounds) and athleticism for his position. However, the biggest question is simple: What role will he play at the next level?
He has the body and skills to be a unique, dominant power forward, but his lack of motor, unwillingness to bang inside and just 7.6 rebounds per game suggest otherwise.
That's OK, though, because Jones has been marketing himself as a small forward at the next level.
A shooting small forward? Probably not. He hit just 30.3 percent of his three-pointers and scored 0.798 points per shot on his jumpers, the fourth worst of the forwards in this draft.
That leaves the role of a slashing small forward, similar to a Josh Smith or Andre Iguodala, but Jones just wasn't very good at creating his own shot. He often showed flashes, but overall, the Baylor product scored just 0.654 points per isolation and 0.795 points per possession on post-ups. Those numbers are, well, quite atrocious.
Because of his physical tools, Jones is successful both in transition and after catching the ball on cuts to the basket, so his effectiveness is going to depend on what team he lands with.
Still, the odds of Jones finding a perfect fit are too low for my liking.
Austin Rivers, PG/SG, Duke
In a similar fashion, I have questions about where Rivers will fit at the next level.
He has elite size and terrific quickness for a point guard, but his questionable decision making is a little frightening. During his only year with the Blue Devils, Doc's son averaged 2.1 assists and 2.3 turnovers per game.
Yikes.
What's more, Rivers struggled this year as a spot-up shooter, as suggested by his 0.761 PPP (third to last of guards in the draft), so a pure starting shooting guard role may be out the question.
Where Rivers is dangerous as a scorer is on the pick-and-roll. His ability to either pull up for the mid-range shot off the dribble or to use his devastating crossover to get to the hole is what makes him such an intriguing prospect.
However, when you combine all of these factors, Rivers looks like a non-point guard who will have to command the ball and use pick-and-rolls in order to be an effective scorer. That looks to me like a first or second guy off the bench.
For someone being talked about in the top 10, I'm not sure he's worth it.
