Euro 2012 Semifinals: Why Spain Will Beat Portugal 1-0

Spain has mastered the 1-0 victory in the knockout stages of major tournaments, and this will be the final score against Portugal.

La Roja defeated Germany by the same score line at the finals of Euro 2008 to win the European Championships for the second time in its history.

Two years later, the team won four consecutive elimination games by a 1-0 score to win its first ever World Cup.

In the quarterfinals against France, Spain would have won 1-0 again, had they not been awarded a penalty kick in the closing moments of the match. Still, the strategy that has led to all these victories was no different against the French.

The Spanish subject opposing teams to a slow and painful demise through their tiki taka style. The team dominates the midfield and keeps possession of the ball for an astounding amount of time, thereby limiting their opponents’ opportunities.

In Euro 2012, Spain has kept the ball 67.5 percent of the time while connecting on 89.6 percent of its passes, according to WhoScored.com. They lead the tournament in both statistics.

The constant possession makes it remarkably difficult to score against the Spanish. Going back to the Euro 2008 quarterfinal, La Roja advanced past Italy on penalty kicks after a scoreless draw. In the semis, they demolished Russia with a 3-0 victory.

The win against France was the eighth consecutive knockout game at a major tournament in which Spain did not concede a goal.

Portugal has played well at Euro 2012 thus far, but their performances have not suggested that they will be able to crack the Spanish defense. 

The team relies almost entirely on Cristiano Ronaldo to create in the attacking third. The Real Madrid star may be tied for the tournament lead with three goals, but he has needed 30 shots—by far the most in the tournament by a single player—in order to reach that mark.

If usage rate were kept in soccer, Ronaldo would have Kobe Bryant-esque numbers. 

Ronaldo is a fantastic player, but he has been inefficient with his chances in this tournament. Portugal will be lucky to have the ball for 30 percent of the match, so the winger cannot afford to be so wasteful.

Ultimately, Iker Cassillas, the Spanish defense and Ronaldo’s propensity for eschewing easy opportunities (with a Portugal jersey on) will all contribute to another clean sheet for La Roja. 

When Spain does have possession, it will subject Portugal to death-by-passing. The midfield will knock the ball around with maddening pace and accuracy while constantly probing Portugal’s back line. 

Eventually, the defending champions will find a chink in the armor and get their decisive goal.

There will be no surprises in this semifinal match. The Spaniards will continue to do what they have done for the last four years, and Portugal will be powerless to stop them.