NBA Draft 2012: 5 College Stars Whose Stocks Have Fallen

Every year in the NBA draft, numerous prospects see their stock fall dramatically based on a telling workout or a serious health concern.

Some players enter the college basketball season with realistic hopes of going in the lottery, only to have those aspirations derailed due to a disappointing season. Although they are often praised for putting the fame and fortune of the NBA on hold in favor of returning to school, that decision quite often proves to be ill-informed.

Entering the 2011 season, Ohio State's Jared Sullinger and Baylor's Perry Jones were being mentioned as potential top-five picks in the NBA draft, but as the 2012 NBA draft is now just days away, both players' stocks have plummeted to where they're now being considered mid-first round prospects.

Let's take a closer look at five college stars whose draft stocks have fallen drastically.

5) C Tyler Zeller, North Carolina

Although he still remains a likely lottery pick, there was a time when Zeller looked like a future star in the NBA. Along with teammates Harrison Barnes and John Henson, Zeller surprised many when he decided to return to school following the 2011 season.

After averaging 25.8 points and 8.8 rebounds in four NCAA Tournament games as a junior, Zeller may have been better off declaring for the draft last year when his stock was still hot. Zeller improved in almost every statistical category as a senior, but it seems he's a prime example of a safe prospect with a low ceiling.

Standing seven feet tall and with the ability to run the floor, Zeller may be able to help an NBA team immediately as a rookie; however, many wonder about how much he can realistically improve at the professional level.

Because he's a post player from North Carolina, Zeller will draw inaccurate comparisons to Tyler Hansbrough. This is a poor comparison because Zeller is 7' 0" and a superior athlete, whereas Hansbrough is just 6' 9" and relies heavily on a relentless work ethic.

In this year's crop of centers, there isn't a surefire success at the NBA level. UConn's Andre Drummond has the highest ceiling but comes with the most risk, while Zeller appears to have been passed by Illinois center Meyers Leonard as the second-best center on most boards. Zeller measured 6' 11.25" at the combine, but his wingspan was measured at a disappointing 7' 0," whereas Leonard stood 6' 11.75" and had a 7' 3" wingspan.

Zeller will likely be taken between picks nine and 14, but his stock has fallen over the past 12 months. While he may never be a superstar, Zeller would be a great addition to a team picking late in the lottery in need of another post player in its rotation.

4) SG Austin Rivers, Duke

Coming out of high school, expectations for Austin Rivers were extremely high.

As the son of an NBA coach, the ultra-smooth Rivers appeared to be the perfect prospect for the professional level. Rivers has a rare ability to create his own shot, and he's had an NBA-caliber floater since high school, which has proven to be a vital asset when trying to score off the dribble.

However, despite Rivers having an impressive freshman season at Duke, his stock isn't nearly as high as it was when he was the heavily-sought-after top prospect in the 2011 recruiting class.

It's a bit perplexing why his stock has fallen over the past year because the knocks on Rivers now are the same as they've always been—he is an undersized shooting guard, and he'd need to learn to take a backseat as a scorer and become more of a facilitator if he were to be considered a point guard at the NBA level.

Because of his slight build and room for improvement as a defender, many expected Rivers to hold off on his professional aspirations and return to Duke for another season. He ultimately felt he was ready for the NBA's challenge, and he's now considered to be a late lottery pick for a team in need of an instant scoring punch.

If he steps into the right situation, Rivers is more than capable of making an early impact with an NBA team. He'll likely come off the board between picks 10-20, and the New Orleans Hornets are rumored to have serious interest in Rivers with their second first-round pick at No. 10 overall.

Barring a trade-up, it doesn't appear that Rivers will be available for his dad's Boston Celtics with the 21st and 22nd overall picks. However, if he reaches his full potential, Rivers will make his head coach incredibly proud regardless of whether there is any blood relation.

3) SF Quincy Miller, Baylor

As one of the more fluid athletes in the draft, Quincy Miller certainly fits the bill as a player with a high ceiling.

However, with high reward comes high risk.

Miller was heavily recruited as a skinny power forward from North Carolina, but he committed to Baylor over several other college basketball powerhouses such as Duke and Louisville. As one of the top 10 prospects in the 2011 recruiting class, one might have expected Miller to be a certain lottery pick when he entered the NBA draft.

However, with the draft just several days away, it would be shocking if Miller ended up in the lottery.

After battling knee injuries for his lone season at Baylor, Miller has teams curious about his potential at the NBA level. His slight build at 6' 10" and 219 pounds is obviously cause for concern in a league full of physical freaks at the forward position. Although similarly built Kevin Durant has quickly become one of the best players in the league, Miller doesn't possess the same fluidity or creativity that Durant does.

According to the Denver Post, Nuggets point guard Ty Lawson hopes his team spends its first-round pick on Miller. Denver picks 20th overall, which is closer to the best-case scenario for Miller, but going to the Nuggets certainly remains a distinct possibility.

Following a solid freshman year at Baylor, Miller originally committed to return to Waco for his sophomore season before changing his mind and entering the draft. But after a disappointing performance at the NBA Combine, it appears Miller should have stuck with his initial decision.

There's a chance that Miller slips all the way to the second round, but he'd be worth a gamble for a team picking late in the first or early in the second round.

In five years, one of two things will happen: Either Miller will maximize his potential and become the steal of this year's draft, or people will hear mention of his name and immediately ask, "Who?"

2) PF Perry Jones, Baylor

After a freshman season in which Perry Jones dazzled NBA scouts and fans alike, he was considered to be a potential top-five pick in the draft.

Since the versatile 6' 11" forward's stock was so hot at the time, many were surprised when he decided to return to school for his sophomore season. Jones put up similar statistics in each of his two seasons at Baylor, averaging more than 13 points and 7 rebounds while shooting better than 50 percent from the field.

Although these numbers reflect a degree of consistency in his game, NBA teams would have preferred to see a slight improvement in production from year one to year two.

More than a year after he decided to return to Baylor, Jones is now only a borderline lottery pick, figuring to come off the board somewhere between picks 10 and 18.

Prior to becoming a college standout, Jones was homeless at times while attending high school. Although he didn't want information on his past to be public, Jones and his family were thrilled when their cheap hotel room contained two beds.

Jones overcame a difficult upbringing, and he's now viewed as one of the most skilled players in the 2012 NBA draft.

Despite his stock being much lower than it would have been in last year's draft, ESPN's Fran Fraschilla called Jones the "second-most talented player in the draft." If that's the case, the fact that he's not even being mentioned in the top 10 is a giant red flag headed into Thursday's draft.

In regards to Jones, the question isn't ability—it's motivation.

However, with several teams picking just outside the top 10 in need of an athletic forward, Jones' high ceiling could prove to be too much to ignore for teams like Portland at No. 11 or Milwaukee at No. 12.

1) PF Jared Sullinger, Ohio State

Although he's been one of college basketball's most productive players over the past two seasons, it appears that Jared Sullinger is entering the draft one year too late.

After the Buckeyes lost to the Kentucky Wildcats in last year's Elite 8, nobody believed Sullinger when he said he'd return to Ohio State for his sophomore season. However, "Sully" stayed true to his word and passed up being a likely top-ten selection.

Jason McIntyre at The Big Lead gave a brilliant summary of the dramatic shift in Sullinger's draft stock, and he estimates that Sullinger would have been the No. 6 overall pick had he come out last year.

Sullinger failed to show significant improvement following his freshman season, as inconsistency and concerns about his motor plagued his sophomore campaign. While he'd often show up and dominate against stiff competition, he was also occasionally outplayed by lesser-skilled post players.

Although his stock is much lower now than it was a year ago, Sullinger registered averages of at least 17 points and nine rebounds in each of his two seasons at Ohio State.

At the NBA level, teams want their post players to be explosive and have the ability to consistently finish above the rim. That's certainly not the case with Sullinger, as he often relies on touch to score when contested around the basket.

On top of having a perceived lack of athleticism for the position, there are serious concerns about the health of Sullinger's back. According to a tweet from Tim Kawakami of the San Jose Mercury News, the state of his back has caused the Warriors to remove Sullinger from their draft board.

With concerns about Sullinger's durability and ability as a professional player moving forward, it remains a possibility that he could fall out of the first round entirely. If that's the case, a team could find Sullinger to be a second round steal even if he has a shortened NBA career.

No matter when he comes off the board on Thursday, Sullinger likely cost himself, financially and otherwise, by not entering the draft last year.