NBA Draft 2012: Odds These 20 Prospects Make the All-Rookie Team

In a week there will be 60 lives changed forever, as 60 players will get drafted and even the last one picked will make almost half a million dollars if he can stick around for the whole season. That's a nice chunk of change. 

Some will fall short of expectations. Some will have slow starts. Some will have fast starts and then fade. Whatever happens, there will be players declared to be "the steal of the draft" and/or "busts" within a month of the season. 

The first year won't make or break a player. Tyreke Evans was the 2009 Rookie of the Year, but Blake Griffin, James Harden, Stephen Curry and Ricky Rubio could all be argued to be better players now. 

The point is: the All-Rookie team isn't the "best picks" team. It's the players who are going to have the best rookie years. Players who are projected to start or have bigger roles are going to automatically have a better chance of being on the All-Rookie team. 

Here are the odds that these top 20 players make it to the team. Player rankings are from Chad Ford's top 100. 

20. Arnett Moultrie

Arnett Moultrie is ranked 20th by Chad Ford, but he's got a chance of getting picked up by Houston or someone earlier than that.

It's not impossible for him to make the All-Rookie team but it's going to take some breaks. He's going to need to get to a team where he can get playing time. That's not impossible, but it's not a given either. 

If he does get playing time, he could put up some solid rebounding numbers, which might be enough to get him second-team status. 

Odds: 15:1

19. Kendall Marshall

Kendall Marshall is a great passer, but that means he's going to be entirely dependent on where he gets drafted. He might be a master of weapons, but if he's unarmed, he's not that dangerous. 

The problem is that it's hard to find a team that is in the range that would take him, that 10-20 range, that fits that description.

Perhaps Portland would be a good fit. There's also the possibility of a team moving up via trade. 

If he gets on the right team and can rack up huge assist numbers, he'll land on the team. But if players can't convert when he sets them up, it won't matter that he's set them up. 

Odds: 30:1

18. Moe Harkless

Harkless, to me, seems like the type of player that doesn't have an immediate impact, but in the right situation, has a chance to grow. He is very raw, but also very talented. 

He's also projected to go to a playoff team, though who that team is, is a bit up in the air.

Yet there's not much of a chance that he's going to start. In fact, he might not get much playing time at all. 

He could, however, be the kind of player who breaks out in two or three years.

He's a project, and as such don't expect him to make the All-Rookie team. 

Odds: 50:1

17. Jared Sullinger

Jared Sullinger is a player that plays better than he's supposed to. He doesn't have "elite athleticism," which to some scouts seems to be all that matters anymore. 

If you stop looking at what he should be able to do and start looking at what he actually does though, Sullinger is a better player than he's supposed to be because he plays with his head, not just his "athleticism." 

He'll put up numbers wherever he lands, and he stands a good chance of landing on the All-Rookie team because of that. 

The strike against him is that he's got seven other power forwards and big men who are ranked ahead of him, and a couple of others just behind. That's a lot of competition.

Odds: 25:1

16. Tyler Zeller

In some ways I look at Zeller and say "I've seen this before," but maybe there's a chance there's more to Zeller after all. 

Zeller runs well, has great hands and can finish around the rim. He has a very real chance of getting a job as a starter in the NBA. 

If he does start, he has an exceptional chance being on the All-Rookie team. But his chance of making the first team is very slim, as Anthony Davis is his competition. 

Odds: 12:1

15. John Henson

John Henson continues to climb the boards because he's got crazy athleticism to go with his length, a 9' 5" reach and a 7' 5" wingspan. If he had some muscle, he would be going even higher. 

But that's the problem. He's thin, and playing at power forward, the concern is that he's going to get pushed around.

If he were a small forward like Kevin Durant, I'd be OK with that. But as a power forward, that's a big issue.

Henson won't be great until he bulks up and fills out. His chances of making the All-Rookie team are correspondingly low. 

Odds: 25:1

14. Terrence Jones

Terrence Jones is a versatile big who can play any frontcourt position. He plays solid defense and is a noted shot-blocker.

The problem is that many of his skills don't show up on the stat sheet or get you All-Rookie attention. 

Because of that, and the fact he won't likely be a starter, he'll have a hard time putting up numbers that would get him a spot. 

Odds: 25:1

13. Perry Jones

If only this kid had a motor, he'd be something special.

The problem here is motivation.

With Perry Jones, it's all about where he lands. He needs to be on a team where he gets some playing time and has a coach that knows how to pull his strings. 

If he ends up on the right team with the right role and gets motivated, watch out. If he ends up unhappy, though, he could be a problem.

Odds: 10:1

12. Jeremy Lamb

Jeremy Lamb has a chance to put up very good numbers if he lands with the right team. He's long and he's an excellent shooter.

He's a little light, but as a perimeter shooter that's not as critical as it is for a player like John Henson, who is going to be trying to body up inside. 

Lamb should get enough shot attempts if he lands on the right team. The only issue for him is there are so many shooting guards that it will be tough for him to be among the top two or three. 

Odds: 20:1

11. Terrence Ross

Terrence Ross might be one of the more undervalued players in this draft. His length, 6' 7", is outstanding for a shooting guard, and it's a good reason to expect that he's ready to contribute right away. 

The other thing that's notable about him is that he's a credible defensive player as well. That means he's not gong to lose time because he plays both ends of the court. 

Ross could end up being one of the best players in the draft, both short term and long term. 

Odds: 10:1

10. Austin Rivers

I want Austin Rivers to succeed but I don't think he will. At the very least he's going to struggle out of the gate. The basic problem with Austin Rivers is that the biggest fan of Austin Rivers is Austin Rivers. 

If he were as good as he thinks he is, he'd be a sure fire No. 1 selection and easily on the All-Rookie team but he's not quite that good.

He's going to shoot too much and that's going to earn him a conflict with his coach. That's going to land him on the bench until he learns some humility. 

Odds: 15:1

9. Meyers Leonard

Draft camps and workouts and measurements can be annoying.

Teams can overreact to all those things, ignoring what they see on the court because a player can jump a quarter inch higher than another player. 

Sometimes it's worth paying attention to though.

Leonard has worked out and answered a lot of questions in terms of his skill. He may be the second best center in the rookie class behind Anthony Davis. 

Odds: 5:1

8. Damian Lillard

Damian Lillard has been rocking up the boards lately. He is now regarded as the top point guard in the draft.

He is regarded as a "shoot-first' point guard which is a moniker I hate because it makes it sound like a bad thing if a point guard scores points. 

Lillard has a chance to put up great numbers across the board and should be in the running for rookie of the year. He'll easily make the All-Rookie team. 

Odds: 1:1

7. Dion Waiters

Dion Waiters knows where he's going. We don't know where he's going but apparently he does as he was allegedly promised by an owner in the lottery to be picked. 

Wherever that is, I expect they'll find that he's the best shooting guard in this year's draft.

When you look at his shooting percentages versus Bradley Beal, there's no comparison. Waiters has a .537 effective field goal percentage to Beal's .525, but Beal is getting all the love as a shooter. 

Watiers will be the better starting shooting guard this year and perhaps going forward. 

Odds: 2:1

6. Andre Drummond

Andre Drummond has taken a beating for whatever reason and frequently addressed as a potential bust. He's also been argued to be better than Anthony Davis. 

Pretty much he's what happens when the media has too much time to spend talking about something. 

The truth is in the middle.

Drummond will be good, but he won't be Davis good. He reminds me of Alonzo Mourning when he was a rookie. People talked about him in relation to Shaquille O'Neal because it was easy. 

Well in the end he had a great career but he was not Shaq. I expect Drummond will have a fine career, but he won't be as good as Davis. 

This year, the "other" center position on the All Rookie team will be between him and Meyers Leonard. 

Odds: 2:1

5. Harrison Barnes

Harrison Barnes might not be the best small forward in the draft or the highest taken, but he has the best chance to be on the All-Rookie team.

Why? Because he is the best scorer out of all them and that's what gets you noticed by the voters. 

He has an even better chance if he can land in Cleveland where he'll get set up by Kyrie Irving.

Odds: 1:1

4. Thomas Robinson

Thomas Robinson is an interesting debate to me.

It looks like Michael Jordan intends to take him with the second pick in the draft, which he should. It also looks like everyone else thinks that's too high and this is Kwame Brown redux. 

The thing is, he might actually be worth it.

He'll be the best power forward in this year's draft and merits the pick. He is the one power forward who really likes to play inside. 

Odds 1:1

3. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist

Micheal Kidd-Gilchrist is a player with extraordinary athleticism who finishes at the rim. Yes, he needs to work on his jump shot but he does so many little things well.

He's got the potential to be a Luol Deng or Andre Iguodala type player who does so many small things well. His ceiling could be higher than either of them though as he has Deng's size and Iguodala's athleticism. 

Whether he'll be on the All-Rookie team though is very much a factor of where he goes.

If he ends up with an elite point guard he will be. If he doesn't he probably won't. He isn't the type of player who does a great job of creating shots for himself. 

Odds: 3:1

2. Bradley Beal

Mark me different, but I'm not sold on Bradley Beal at all. If I'm a fan of a top five team I'm hoping against hope that my team doesn't take him. 

Of course I'm not an NBA scout either but here's my problem: I keep hearing how he's an "amazing shooter" (what Chad Ford Calls him). When I look at the stats he's a pretty ordinary shooter. 

His field goal percentage is .445. His three-point percentage is .339, and that's a college three. 

I don't think he's going to be a complete flop but I do think he's going to be a project. He's going to take a couple of years before he starts to see his potential. 

Odds: 2:1

1. Anthony Davis

Anthony Davis is a lock to be the top overall pick. There has only been two times since 1989 that the top overall pick has not made the All-Rookie team.

One of those was Greg Oden in 2007 who certainly would have made it, had he not gotten injured.

The other was Kwame Brown, arguably the dumbest pick in the history of the NBA. What if the Wizards (erp Bullets) had taken Pau Gasol? 

But I digress. 

Point being Davis is going to be the top overall pick, and those make it to the All-Star game unless they get hurt or they're Kwame Brown and Davis is no Kwame Brown. Look for Davis to be there. 

Odds: 1:3