NBA Draft 2012: Why High-Risk Prospects Will Stunt Lottery Teams' Rebuilding
There's always a significant measure of risk involved with draft picks. If making the right call were more of a science, we wouldn't have such an epic history of selections that turned out horribly.
Hindsight is as telling as ever when it comes to revisiting the draft days of yesteryear.
June 28's festivities will be no different. If anything, the outcomes this time around could be even more unpredictable than usual. There's no questioning the level of talent in this draft—it's just a bit harder to tell which talent will be realized in time.
The Los Angeles Times' Broderick Turner explains why the uncertainty seems to be peaking:
"In the last week, some players who were expected to be lottery picks have had poor workouts, causing their stock to drop.
"The workouts are starting to show some of these players aren’t NBA-ready," said another Western Conference executive, also not authorized to speak on the record. "That’s why so many players are moving all over the place on draft boards."
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There have always been doubts about whether guys like Andre Drummond and Perry Jones III would pan out as well as hoped.
Now, even more elite prospects like Michael Kidd-Gilchrist appear to be losing their footing in the lottery. At one point, MKG looked like a solid bet to be selected by the Charlotte Bobcats with the second overall pick, but now the organization's thinking is anything but clear.
Few draft classes have promised to one day cause so much elation and so much commensurate disappointment.
If Kidd-Gilchrist figures out his perimeter shot, he could be on his way to legitimate stardom. If not, he may never become more than a hustle-oriented perimeter defender—or maybe the next Andre Iguodala. He epitomizes the hit-or-miss nature of this draft.
Similarly, scorers like Jeremy Lamb, Austin Rivers and Dion Waiters could be future All-Stars or busts in waiting.
It shouldn't be surprising that so many trades are rumored to be on the draft-day horizon.
Organizations looking to rebuild in the near-future aren't interested in gambling away their futures on big question-marks–especially after suffering through years of mediocrity (or worse). Thomas Robinson may not have the highest ceiling in the draft, but he's a proven commodity and benefited from playing out his junior year.
The long list of freshman and sophomore candidates are sure to worry middling teams looking to extricate themselves from the bottom of the league standings.
Those clubs may still find themselves with bright futures ahead. It could just take a little longer for them to get there.
