Handicapping the NBA Finals: How to Bet on the Cavs and the Spurs

The 2007 NBA Finals will be great for sports investors—although the series will break many of the rules "weekend warrior" bettors may be used to.

The spread for Game One (Cle@SA) is 7.5 points, with the home team favored.  In a championship matchup, 7.5 points is a monumental gap.

Here's why the Spurs might cover:

First, they're considered the better team, and easily have the better pedigree.  Tim Duncan leads a group of savvy veterans who have been there and done that...and who still play with a chip on their shoulder.

This team never gives an inch, and takes every facet of the game seriously.

The aging Spurs have also had ample time to recuperate since defeating the Utah Jazz. Coupled with the fact that the Cavs are coming off a grueling series—two losses by three points, one in double overtime—and are having to deal with a veritable media frenzy, that respite bodes well for San Antonio.

Another factor in the Spurs' favor: Beyond Duncan, they have a number of players who consistently show up in big games. Tony Parker, Manu Ginobili,  Bruce Bowen, Michael Finley, Robert Horry—how many times have those guys come through in the clutch? 

If any one of them is on their game, 7.5 points is a cake spread.

Finally, the Spurs know what to expect from Cleveland. Like the rest of the world, they've seen that the Cavs can defend, rebound, and score in bunches. More to the point, they never give up.

Teams like that are dangerous if you let them hang around. Don't expect San Antonio to make the same mistakes Detroit did.

Of course, that's not the whole story. Before you rush out and place your wagers, let's look at why Cleveland might beat the spread:

For starters, 7.5 points is a lot of points—especially against a team playing with plenty of confidence.

During the regular season, the Cavs easily beat this spread; in fact, they beat San Antonio straight up, both at home and on the road. In those two games, they were 5.5- and 3.5-point underdogs.

No less importantly, LeBron is LeBron.  When was the last time he had a bad game?  Granted, it's conceivable the San Antonio's defense might focus on James and that the Cavs' role players could proceed to shoot bricks all night...but this is the biggest series of their lives, and they have nothing to lose.  And if the Spurs don't clamp down on LeBron well, his impact will be more than enough to bridge a 7.5-point spread.

Let's also not forget that the Cavs are hot:  They're 21-6-1 against the spread in their last 28 road games, and 38-15-1 ATS in their last 54 games overall.  In their last 10 outings as underdogs, they've covered eight times.

True, you're only as good as your next game—but the Cavs' last game was pretty good, as were the games before that.  If their recent performance says anything, it's that 7.5 points is far too generous.

Finally, San Antonio's apparent statistical edge in the series isn't all it's cracked up to be.  Yes, the Spurs have a decided edge in playoff PPG (97.9 to the Cavs' 90.9)...but the Spurs have played offensively-orientated (and defensively-limited) teams.

Cleveland's tough D might change the equation drastically. 

Rebounding is another telling category. At 43.9 RPG (compared to the Spurs' 39.8), the Cavs have pulled down more boards against opponents who took fewer shots.

Looking at those numbers, 7.5 points seems like the lock of the year.

As for the series as a whole the media's calling the Spurs to win in five or six games...which may be right, given their talent and experience.  But as sports investors, we're not worried about who wins the series; we're only looking for the financial payoff.

However Game One pans out, remember that the bookies' job is to make as much money as possible.  They have between four and seven games to adjust the lines based on a wide range of factors: betting trends, home-court advantage, injuries, momentum. 

The rub: Take one game at a time, and only invest what you can afford to lose.

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