Jared Sullinger: Analyzing Risk and Reward Associated with Ohio State Star

The last thing a prospect wants to hear less than two weeks before the NBA draft is that he has been medically red-flagged. Unfortunately for Jared Sullinger, he has heard that disheartening news.

Some team doctors are telling teams to stay away form the Ohio State star because he has back problems that may linger for the rest of his career.

In his final season with the Buckeyes, Sullinger established himself as one of the top prospects in this draft by averaging 17.6 points and 9.3 rebounds per game under Thad Matta. He can obviously play basketball, but his stock will surely be diminished by the recent reports.

The power forward's father, Satch Sullinger, had this to say, per ESPN:

"

He had a bulging area that was due to his hamstring and quads being so tight," Satch Sullinger told ESPN.com senior college basketball writer Andy Katz in a phone call Monday afternoon. "It pulled on his hip flexor and he's been taking care of it to loosen it. You can call it a red flag if you want. But it's tight hamstring and tight quads. He's been to doctors, he's doing yoga and deep tissue massage. The flexibility is helping take the pressure off the area.

"

That statement doesn't make his back issues sound all that frightening, but it's the type of statement you would expect from the father of a medically red-flagged draft prospect. Nothing that anybody says will be proved true or false until some years down the road, so we'll need to evaluate this situation in a different way.

Worst-case scenario: Sullinger is drafted in the first half of the 2012 NBA draft, plays a few mediocre years in the NBA and is then forced to retire because of a debilitating back injury.

Best-case scenario: Sullinger is drafted by a team who doesn't believe that his back will be detrimental to the overall quality of his career. He then evolves into a force in the post and enjoys an extremely successful NBA career as a result.

Those two scenarios couldn't be further away from each other on the spectrum of an NBA player's career.

I'm not a doctor, but Sullinger missed just two games last season with Ohio State. They were both due to back spasms, but how big of a deal could the back spasms be if he only missed a pair of games because of it?

He tested poorly at the combine, but he's clearly not a test guy. He came in at 10.7 percent body fat—one of the highest numbers in the draft—but he relies heavily on his low center of gravity and bulk to assert himself in the low post.

That's what makes this back injury so scary.

If Sullinger is unable to viciously back down his opponents in the paint because of a balky back problem, he doesn't have much else to offer. He's a good shooter and rebounder, but he's made his name on his superior strength and ability to bang around in the post.

Even the slightest back injury could develop into something worse when he's constantly slamming his back and rear into defenders.

Sullinger has dominated everywhere he's been, though. That's what makes the decision so hard. Teams that pass on him may regret their decision to no end, but it could also go the other way. They could be thanking their lucky stars five years down the road that they passed on Sullinger.

He's not a top-five prospect in this draft, so it is worth it to take a risk on him. If he was higher up on draft boards before the injury, it would be a huge stretch to select a player that may give you three quality years and then break down.

Since he's projected to fall a considerable distance towards the back end of the first round, a team in the high teens or low 20s would be wise to take a chance on the two-time All-American.

If nothing else, that team could use his bad back as a bargaining chip to sign him to a lesser contract. He's going to get a big payday either way, but shaving a million or so off the top wouldn't be so hard now that he has been medically red-flagged by numerous doctors.

Sullinger is worth the risk but not for teams who are picking before No. 15. Before that, there will be too many players in the draft who will be a sure thing, as opposed to Sullinger, who now appears to be one of the draft's wild cards.