Euro 2012 Quarterfinals: Why the Spanish Will Batter Les Bleus

On June 27, 2006 at 9:48 pm, Spaniards around the world thought that the time had finally come for their national football team to emerge triumphant.

Decades of underperforming in international competitions had taken their toll on supporters and players alike of La Furia Roja.  Yet David Villa's 28th minute penalty in the first knockout stage match between France and Spain at the World Cup looked to change all of that.

The typical Spanish cynicism going into the tournament was momentarily extinguished by a smart finish that sent the Hanover crowd into a momentary delirium, that is, until France, led by the legend Zinedine Zidane, put on yet another masterclass en route to their second World Cup final.

Fast-forward six years and two major international tournaments later, and what do we have?

The Spanish, spearheaded by a possession-centric Barcelona spine of once-in-a-lifetime players like Xavi Hernandez and Andres Iniesta, have won a Euro Cup and a World Cup, while the French, eliminated in the group stages of those two tournaments, appear to have lost their way. 

Few would have predicted the 2006 World Cup Finalists to have switched places with Spain, but Saturday's Euro 2012 quarter-final battle between the two Western European Giants will re-confirm Spain's ascendancy to the top and France's new role as the frustratingly talented underachiever.

To attribute the differences between Spain and France by pointing to a gulf in class between the two team's players is insufficient. 

On paper, they appear well-matched.

Spain have: a supremely talented squad who play with a level of unity rarely seen in international competitions today, a strong coach willing to pursue minor tactical alterations (as seen by their 4-6-0, or "false nine" formation against Italy), and an aura of near invincibility.

France, on the other hand, can boast the mercurial talents of Karim Benzema, Frank Ribery and Samir Nasri, a world class goalkeeper in Hugo Lloris and a respected manager with loads of international playing experience. 

But what France possess in talent and flair, they lack in defense and team spirit.  With their young stars, they embody a certain individualism anathema to international success.

In their last group stage matches, Spain and France failed to impress.  Yet the differences between each team's last performance is instructive in comparing their recent fortunes and predicting the outcome of their upcoming encounter. 

While Spain may have been underwhelming against Croatia, they won 1-0 nevertheless, did not concede a goal and managed to top their group.

France, on the other hand, were humbled 2-0 at the hands of bottom-dwellers Sweden.

As is so often the case, what it came down to for France was defensive frailty and a predictable over-reliance on their wing forwards.  What may have worked in their first two matches against England and Ukraine, will not cut it against the defending European Champions.

Not since the international retirements of Claude Makalele and Lillian Thuram have France been able to boast of a consistent defense, while Spain, spearheaded by the rock-solid center back pairing of  Gerard Pique ("'nbauer"—a nickname alluding to his similarities with German legend Franz Beckenbauer) and the feisty Sergio Ramos, conceded just one goal in the group stage.

Not even a starter at club level, France's Phillip Mexes and partner Adil Remi have conceded three goals, looked off pace and failed to convince.

Spain's midfield is truly a model for excellence. 

In their second group stage match against Ireland, Xavi Hernandez set a European Cup record for passes completed en route to a decisive defeat of team Ireland. 

Not only can Spain control the middle of the park with ease, but they also possess the speed and technical virtuosity in wingers David Silva, Andres Iniesta or Juan Mata to employ a "Plan B" by spreading play to the flanks. 

With no creative influence in the middle and injuries to speedy wingbacks Bacary Sagna and Eric Abidal, as well as midfield destroyer Abou Diaby, France is forced attack via the inconsistent dribbles of Ribery or Nasri, which Spain's full backs Jordi Alba and Alvaro Arbeloa will no doubt have come to expect.

The forward lines of each team also present an interesting dynamic. 

Karim Benzema, who was on fire for Real Madrid all season long, and played admirably in France's first two matches as a more withdrawn lone-striker, has yet to convert for Les Bleus. 

Spain's Fernando Torres, on the other hand, was much maligned for his inconsistency at Chelsea, but has looked dangerous whenever on the pitch, and consequently has two goals to his Euro 2012 tally.

Cesc Fabregas has also played in the striker's role for Spain and scored against Italy.  The key difference between the two attacks, however, has been their service from the midfield.  In this sense, there is no basis for comparison: Spain is the better team.

Spain go into this match-up with 4:5 odds to win, are heavy favorites to advance to the finals and look the part of champions. Yet one would be foolish to completely write off France. 

Anything can happen in an international competition, especially in the knockout stages, and with a clinical finisher and two speedy wing demons, France could hit Spain on the counter, score a goal or two, and pull an upset. Ultimately, however, Spain's quality, cohesion and their international success should prove too much for Les Bleus.

A 3-1 final should send France packing.