Wanderlei Silva vs. Rich Franklin II: Preview, Odds and Predictions for UFC 147
Originally scheduled to feature Anderson Silva vs Chael Sonnen II, along with a powerful co-main event between Ultimate Fighter: Brasil coaches Wanderlei Silva and Vitor Belfort, it didn't take long for UFC 147 to unravel into a promoter's nightmare.
Silva vs. Sonnen was moved to UFC 148, Belfort broke his hand and needed to be replaced, the main event was changed to a nonexistent weight class, and for the first time since the show began, a non-finalist is getting a crack at the tournament final.
Although the card we ended up with isn't the card we once knew, it should still be an entertaining night of action from top to bottom. Expect the Brazilians to go all out in their home country, and the main event promises to satisfy our eternal craving for a 100 mph war that leaves a pool of sweat, blood and pride across the cage.
Here is a look at the main card of UFC 147, along with betting odds and predictions.
Yuri Alcantara vs. Hacran Dias
1 of 5Yuri Alcantara has quietly been sneaking up the ladder of the UFC featherweight division. Since signing with Zuffa, the Brazilian has gone 3-0, with key victories over Michihiro Omigawa and Ricardo Lamas. The wins improved Alcantara's winning streak to 13 and have hardcore fans excited about his next move.
Unfortunately, instead of allowing "Marajo" to continue climbing the ladder, Joe Silva has paired him off with a promotional newcomer who has a lot of promise.
At the end of 2011, Hacran Dias was named the top featherweight prospect in all of mixed martial arts by BloodyElbow.com. With a professional record of 20-1-1 and an eight-fight winning streak, the Nova Uniao prodigy has a stiff challenge ahead of him.
Dias and Alcantara are two of Brazil's top prospects, so it makes sense that they would meet on this card, however they won't do much to aid in the sale of this pay-per-view.
Dias is a strong and aggressive grappler who comes from a camp known for their jiu-jitsu phenoms. The key to victory in this contest lies in his takedowns. The majority of his wins have come from the ground, either by submission, ground-and-pound or decision.
Alcantara is no slouch on the ground, but his powerful standup will be a handful for Dias, whose striking has not excelled at the same rate as his BJJ. His key to victory lies in his ability to keep the fight standing and benefit from his likely striking advantage.
Prediction: This fight is a nightmare to predict, as we haven't seen a lot of Dias, and he has never faced an opponent the caliber of Alcantara. I'd struggle to bet confidently on this one, but I'm leaning towards Dias because of his afiliation with Nova Uniao. Hacran Dias wins via unanimous decision.
Betting Odds: Alcantara (-300) over Dias (+220) at BetAnySports.eu
Rony Mariano Bezerra vs. Godofredo Pepey
2 of 5The featherweight final of The Ultimate Fighter: Brasil features a battle between Team Silva's first pick Rony "Jason" Mariano Bezerra and Team Belfort's sixth choice Godofredo Pepey.
After talk that he would drop in weight, BloodyElbow.com ranked Mariano as the top bantamweight prospect in the world last year, despite him never fighting in the division. Perhaps it is because of his lethal muay thai, excellent ability to scramble and smothering top game.
Pepey may not have been on the radar of the coaches when it came time to pick teams, but the Team Belfort fighter is 8-0 in his professional career and has won all of his fights via stoppage. Despite his flawless record, it's hard to gauge his ability to compete, as his previous opponents are non-notables.
Bezerra battled title contender Renan Barao to a split decision, and I think that speaks volumes about his level of talent. It's hard to see Pepey pulling this one out, as Jason has the well-rounded skills to finish this fight no matter where it ends up.
Prediction: Bezerra wins via TKO in the second round
Betting Odds: Bezerra (-280) over Pepey (+200) at betanysports.eu
Cezar Ferreira vs. Sergio Moraes
3 of 5Ever since The Ultimate Fighter began, I have always wondered what would happen if a finalist got hurt before the finale. Now we know: Replace him.
Daniel Sarafian should be in this contest against Cezar Ferreira, as he knocked out Moraes in the semifinals to earn a shot at the title of Ultimate Fighter. The right move would have been to postpone the final contest until Sarafian is ready to get back into the cage.
Anyway, I digress.
Ferreira, also known as "Mutante," was the first selection for Team Belfort when picking teams. This likely has more to do with his personal relationship with Belfort than his 4-2 professional record. In any event, Mutante has been impressive, winning all three of his fights on the show via stoppage.
Moraes will likely be more cautious when shooting in for takedowns. After all, an interceptor flying knee from Sarafian knocked him out and eliminated him from the competition. However, he will want to work the contest to the floor so he can employ his effective submission skills.
Prediction: Mutante wins via knockout in Round 3. With Moraes' only career losses coming by way of KO, I expect him to be slightly gun shy and nervous heading into this contest. I think this fight is closer than oddsmakers are making it out to be, because Moraes could definitely pull off a submission if he gets it to the ground, but I've got to go with Mutante.
Betting Odds: Mutante (-280) over Moraes (+200) at betanysports.eu
Fabricio Werdum vs. Mike Russow
4 of 5Finally, we get to a fight where I expect the majority of our readers to know the participants.
Fabricio Werdum is a top-five heavyweight who has been paired up with a wrestler who has racked up an impressive win streak in the UFC.
Werdum is one of the most elite jiu-jitsu practitioners in MMA, and he has supplemented his game by achieving the rank of black belt in both judo and muay thai.
Russow has already been outclassed on the feet by Todd Duffee, although he was able to come from behind and score a highlight-reel knockout in that contest. Additionally, he was able to close the eye of Jon Madsen to score a doctor stoppage.
The Brazilian submission machine does not have much experience facing a high-level wrestler, although he feels most comfortable when fighting from his back. The biggest win of his career came by submitting Fedor Emelianenko, who dared to enter the guard of "Vai Cavalo."
Prediction: I don't see Russow winning this fight unless it comes via miraculous one-punch KO. Fabricio Werdum wins via submission in Round 2. Werdum has a substantial advantage wherever this contest goes. Standing, he should be able to stun Russow and follow him to the mat for a sub. On the ground, it's Werdum's world.
Betting Odds: Werdum (-500) over Russow (+400)
Wanderlei Silva vs Rich Franklin II
5 of 5Earlier this year, Franklin vs Silva II was a rematch that I listed as a fight that fans wanted to see, whether they knew it or not.
Fast forward to today: Be careful what you wish for. While the rematch promises to be full of fireworks between a pair of future Hall of Fame fighters, it doesn't have title implications, nor does it feel like the caliber of fight that should main event a UFC PPV in 2012.
Franklin and Silva are both confident in their standup abilities and willing to let it all hang out. We have no evidence to suggest that they will look to implement a different fighting style than what we saw the first time around. If that is the case, it could come down to the gas tank.
Both men have excellent cardio when they arrive in peak form, although Franklin took the fight on shorter notice than he would have liked. Will that play a factor if the fight somehow goes into the 25th minute?
Prediction: Chins get weaker as days go by, and it's been a long time since "The Axe Murderer" has been able to absorb a substantial punch. Rich Franklin can put his hands on any chin in the business. I'm just not convinced that Silva can handle five rounds of punishment from Franklin without going down. Wanderlei Silva gets knocked out in Round 4.
Betting Odds: Franklin (-165) over Wanderlei (+145)


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