St. Louis Cardinals' 2009 Outlook

The 2008 St. Louis Cardinals were supposed to be a team beginning the road of rebuilding. Their former Cy Young winner was coming back from surgery, their all-world first baseman was looking as if he was going to have elbow surgery in the middle of the season. 

They just sent a disgruntled Gold Glove third baseman packing and their top OF'er was getting old and was recovering from a few serious health issues. That team's season didn't quite go the way everyone predicted. After an early injury to Carpenter, things seemed bleak.

After Edmonds' sluggish start, they shipped him off for a third baseman who'd spend the entire season in the minors, the bullpen was in absolute shambles and then Wainwright misses a significant chunk of the season. Those were the bad surprises. 

The good ones were Ludwick's breakout season (finally), Pujols stayed healthy (and had arguably his best season), late signing Kyle Lohse turned in a career year under Dave Duncan, and the offense that was supposed to take a big step back turned in one of the best performances of the year.

Now looking to 2009 there are just as many questions, but the rest of the division (Cubs excluded) seem to have taken a step back. A lot has been made of their lack of activity in the offseason. After trading for Kahlil Greene early, they stayed pretty stagnant. 

Greene was coming off the worst season of his short career seems like a good fit. His power in theory, should shine through after moving from extreme pitcher friendly PETCO to a more moderate Busch Stadium, and a pitcher heavy NL West to the NL Central which is home to Wrigley winds, Minute Maid, and Great American.

Unfortunately the Cardinals have been looking to trade one of their influx of OFers, but the free agent market has been littered with high caliber OF'ers. That left St. Louis with little options. 

The starting rotation is going to be questioned. Wainwright is a definite No. 1.5 starter. He's not your ideal No. 1, but he's an incredible No. 2 starter. Carpenter's health will be the biggest question mark, but if he returns to form and Wainwright pitches like he did last year when healthy, they may have the best one-two combination in the NL. 

I think most fans are expecting a little bit of a drop off from Lohse, but (if the top two stay healthy) he's a great No. 3 in the rotation. My biggest fear is relying on Piniero as a starter. He's a much better option as a reliever who can fill in at starter.

The bullpen received a little bit of a boost in the off-season with the addition of Trevor Miller. The expectations have also been elevated for hard throwing newcomers Motte and Perez who are the most likely option at closer for the team.

I think the bullpen will be better, but it's probably not going to be the strength of the team.

Pujols is back, and reportedly healthy. There's a large question mark at second... literally. No one is 100 percent on who's expected to compete, who's favored, or if that person is even on the team right now.

My best guess is either Schumacher, Mather, or Thurston. Glaus is going to miss a few weeks, but third base is actually a strong point in our minor league system, so the Cardinals have options to cover them until he comes back.

I think the two most interesting things to look out for from the offense will be if Greene can finally fulfill his potential with a change of scenery, and if Ludwick's breakout season was a fluke or if he's a legitimate all-star OFer.

Some publications have named the Cardinals their surprise favorite to come out of the Central, and while I'm optimistic, I still think the Cubs are the team to beat, but they didn't improve very much (if at all), and the Cardinals have a chance to surprise some teams. 

The question is really going to come down to will Lohse be our No. 3 starter as planned, or will he spend the season as the No. 2 or even more scary would be him being the No. 1. Carpenter's health may be the deciding factor on whether or not this season is a wasted on, or if they'll be a wild card/NL Central competitor.