2012 NBA Mock Draft: Overrated Big Men to Steer Clear of
It's become a yearly tradition in the NBA for big men with limitless ceilings to enter the draft with much acclaim only to leave their teams shattered by disappointment.
The higher those ceilings are, the greater that disappointment is.
Invariably, big men are an enigma. Their imposing statures call out to scouts like a siren song destined to wreck one franchise after another. Whether the culprit is chronic injury, listless motors or stalled development, there always seems to be something standing in the way of discovering the next Shaquille O'Neal, Tim Duncan or Kevin Garnett.
Then again, surely someone will get lucky one of these days.
Or will they? Here's a complete first-round mock along with some sizable risks teams shouldn't take in June 28's draft.
1. New Orleans Hornets: Anthony Davis, PF (Kentucky)
Davis blocks shots that no human should be able to block, and he's not a bad rebounder either. Athletes with this kind of size and motor are few and far between, and that's why Davis has long been a lock to go No. 1.
2. Charlotte Bobcats: Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, SF (Kentucky)
The jury is still somewhat out on Kidd-Gilchrist, but he's a phenomenal athlete and a born leader. Charlotte should ultimately overlook any doubts about his offense and do its best to turn him into a superstar.
3. Washington Wizards: Thomas Robinson, PF (Kansas)
Robinson's fate will largely depend on whether the Bobcats keep the second overall pick and whether teams are willing to wait on MKG to become a better shooter. Robinson should be selected in the top five one way or another, and likely the top three, given how much Washington and Charlotte both need a power forward who can score—as well as their needs for toughness and maturity.
4. Cleveland Cavaliers: Bradley Beal, SG (Florida)
The Cavaliers would presumably be just as happy taking Harrison Barnes or Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, but if Beal falls this far, he won't go any further. The slightly-undersized shooting guard can take it to the rim and shoot pretty well, a dynamic scoring combination that should thrive at the pro level.
5. Sacramento Kings: Harrison Barnes, SF (North Carolina)
As much as Barnes' stock has ebbed and flowed over the last few months, he remains a good bet to go in the top five. If Sacramento is willing to pass on taking a risky big man, Barnes is the next logical choice.
6. Portland Trail Blazers (from Brooklyn Nets): Andre Drummond, C (UConn)
Drummond has too much potential to fall too far, but there's no way he should go as high as the second or third overall pick. He could very well prove one day that he should have, but he's done nothing to suggest as much so far.
Give the big man some time. He'll find ways to contribute one way or another, even if it's primarily with his defense and rebounding. Portland is in a good position to give him the chance to show he can do even more thanks to its need to replace Marcus Camby (who was traded midseason to the Houston Rockets).
7. Golden State Warriors: Perry Jones III, PF (Baylor)
Whether Jones is overrated really depends on whom you ask. No, he hasn't proven much as of yet, but he certainly has the talent to do so. At 6'11", he might seem like just another power forward with NBA stature, but we already know he's more than that. His inside-outside game reflects the explosiveness of a center and the finesse of a small forward.
Still, Jones hasn't demonstrated the consistency to become a top-five pick. He may not even be taken this high. If the Warriors opt for more of a sure thing, Jones could very well fall to the back end of the lottery or outside of it altogether.
8. Toronto Raptors: Jeremy Lamb, SG (UConn)
Lamb could wind up being the best scorer this draft has to offer. He's a lethal shooter and has the physical tools to diversify his offensive game as he develops. Toronto could also go after someone like Dion Waiters or Damian Lillard here.
9. Detroit Pistons: Terrence Jones, SF (Kentucky)
Detroit has a solid young inside-outside duo in Greg Monroe and Brandon Knight. The next step is adding some young talent to the wing, and Jones would certainly do that thanks to his versatility on both ends of the floor.
10. New Orleans Hornets (via Minnesota Timberwolves): Damian Lillard, PG (Weber State)
The Hornets can do pretty much anything they want after taking Anthony Davis. They'll probably go with the best guy left on the board, and that could be someone like Lillard, Terrence Jones or possibly Perry Jones III.
11. Portland Trail Blazers: Kendall Marshall, PG (North Carolina)
Marshall could fall out of the lottery if teams look to take the best-available talent rather than address roster needs, but he's still one of the two best point guards in the draft. If Portland addresses its need for a floor general, Marshall could be the guy.
12. Milwaukee Bucks: Tyler Zeller, C (North Carolina)
Zeller is anything but an overrated big man. If anything, the skilled seven-footer probably doesn't get enough attention. The Bucks should snatch him up to replace Andrew Bogut.
13. Phoenix Suns: Austin Rivers, G (Duke)
It's hard to find much agreement on Rivers, but he probably won't fall too far past this spot. He might switch places with Terrence Ross (at No. 15) or Dion Waiters (at No. 16), but he'll be one of the scorers taken near the end of the lottery.
14. Houston Rockets: John Henson, PF (North Carolina)
There's a case to be made that Henson belongs in the top 10, but there's still far too much uncertainty surrounding his offensive skills. We know he can rebound and block plenty of shots. His energy is a nice plus as well.
But after that, things get a little murkier. If he develops a mid-range shot, he could one day prove to be more than deserving of a lottery selection. Either way, the Rockets could at least use his athleticism and energy as an alternative to the comparatively stationary Luis Scola.
15. Philadelphia 76ers: Terrence Ross, SG (Washington)
Ross has the ideal size and set of offensive and defensive skills to make an impact as a shooting guard at the next level. Philly isn't going anywhere without an improvement at the starting shooting guard spot, so Ross falling to them would be a huge steal.
16. Houston Rockets (via New York Knicks): Dion Waiters, G (Syracuse)
No, he's not yet much of a shooter, but that's not a deal-breaker. Waiters knows how to get to the rim, and he knows what to do once he gets there. The Rockets don't have a dynamic slasher like that, and they'd be happy to add one if the Dwyane Wade-sized guard isn't taken in the lottery.
17. Dallas Mavericks: Jared Sullinger, PF (Ohio State)
Sullinger's recently revealed back problems could very well send his draft stock spiraling all the way outside of the first round. Teams may be willing to take on raw prospects and long-term projects, but a guy with career-threatening conditions is another story.
Nevertheless, some teams may be weary of overreacting, especially when guys like DeJuan Blair were similarly spurned in the first round only to go on to have solid careers. Mark Cuban likes a good risk when he sees one, and he might be willing to jump on Sullinger before he slips any further.
The powerful bruiser has plenty of skill, so while buyers should beware, they shouldn't be overreacting.
18. Minnesota Timberwolves (via Utah Jazz): Moe Harkless, SF (St. John's)
If the Timberwolves have a shot at a guard like Terrence Ross or Dion Waiters, one of those guys would take priority. Assuming that's not an option, however, Harkless would at least fill a need on the wing and give Minnesota some flexibility to deal some of its other young assets.
19. Orlando Magic: Meyers Leonard, C (Illinois)
Leonard can impose his will around the rim on both ends of the floor, and that should count for a lot even if he's yet to develop much of a mid-range shot or post-game.
Would he fully replace Dwight Howard whenever that time comes? Probably not. But there's a good chance he's the draft's best option at the center position once we get past the lottery.
20. Denver Nuggets: Arnett Moultrie, PF (Mississippi St.)
Given how young Denver's roster is already, the last thing this team really needs is a rookie. If the Nuggets end up keeping this pick, Moultrie would at least add a new dimension to the bench. He's got more size and athleticism than the anyone currently in the fold, and he has a solid perimeter game for a guy his size.
21. Boston Celtics: Royce White, SF/PF (Iowa State)
White may not take Paul Pierce's spot anytime soon, but he'd give the bench a useful asset thanks to his ability to spend time at either forward position.
There's really no chance he'll go much higher than this, but he's still one of the more talented players likely to fall outside of the lottery. For a team that desperately needs some youth infused to its rotation, White would be a huge help.
22. Boston Celtics (via Los Angeles Clippers): Fab Melo, C (Syracuse)
It's looking more and more like Boston will move at least one of their picks one way or another. The team would either benefit from better draft position or more veteran talent that could contribute right away.
Either way, the back-to-back first-round picks could help in making such an acquisition. Alternatively, though, an explosive big man like Fab Melo could help bolster a position that's been a point of weakness for Boston over the last couple of years.
23. Atlanta Hawks: Tony Wroten Jr., PG/SG (Washington)
There's a good case to be made that Wroten is too much of a project to draw interest from the Hawks—a team that ostensibly is looking for an immediate impact. Nevertheless, it's hard to imagine a player fitting that description at this point, and Wroten would at least give Atlanta some needed depth in the backcourt, especially in the event that free agent Kirk Hinrich doesn't return.
24. Cleveland Cavaliers (from Los Angeles Lakers): Jeff Taylor, SF (Vanderbilt)
Unless Cleveland lands Kidd-Gilchrist or Harrison Barnes in the lottery, look for the Cavaliers to go after the best-available small forward left on the board. That could be someone like Taylor—arguably the best perimeter defender in the draft—or perhaps Draymond Green or Royce White.
25. Memphis Grizzlies: Evan Fournier, SG (France)
Fournier is already a solid shooter with a good bit of Manu Ginobili in his game. Even if he isn't ready to contribute a lot of minutes from day one, he has the kind of unique skill set that could turn into something special in the long run.
26. Indiana Pacers: Draymond Green, F (Michigan St.)
Green has the rare combination of smarts and skills that differentiate solid prospects from the rest of the pack. He has good size for a swingman in the NBA, but his versatile skill set is even more impressive. With Indiana presumably looking to acquire a star via the trade market, Green could help replenish any assets lost in such a deal.
27. Miami Heat: Festus Ezeli, C (Vanderbilt)
What do you get for a team that has everything? Well, the Heat don't exactly have everything. Despite an All-Star core and some capable role players, Miami could still use a defensively-sound big man, and that's almost certain to be Ezeli or Fab Melo at this juncture.
28. Oklahoma City Thunder: Andrew Nicholson, PF (St. Bonaventure)
OKC's bench is short on offense outside of Sixth Man of the Year James Harden. Nicholson would solve that problem at least in part on account of his shooting ability and excellent touch. The Thunder could always move this pick, but an affordable addition to the rotation makes sense as well.
29. Chicago Bulls: Marquis Teague, PG (Kentucky)
The Bulls may have to trade up a few spots in order to land Teague, but he'll be the best true point guard around once Damian Lillard and Kendall Marshall are off the board. Unless Chicago finds another way to acquire its point guard depth, it will need someone like Teague to come in and ease the temporary loss of Derrick Rose.
30. Golden State Warriors (via San Antonio Spurs): Quincy Miller, SF (Baylor)
Miller could very well slip to the second round, but don't be surprised if a team like Golden State snatches him up first. The 19-year-old approaches 6'10" but has the athleticism to play small forward. With a few years to develop his offensive game, he could surprise some people down the road.
