San Francisco Giants: Is It Time to Convert Tim Lincecum into a Reliever?

The San Francisco Giants made it nine in a row on Saturday night in Seattle. Tim Lincecum struggled once again, giving up five earned runs in five innings to a weak-hitting Mariners team. 

The Giants were last victorious in a Lincecum start on April 28. Think Like a Man was the top movie at the box office, according to BoxOfficeMojo.com.

Now you know, for good or ill.

For the umpteenth time, the Giants are insisting that their plan is to stay the course with Lincecum. Andrew Baggarly of CSNBayArea.com reported over the weekend that Giants manager Bruce Bochy says the team has no plans to skip Lincecum's next turn in the rotation. He will pitch on Friday in Oakland against the A's.

Staying the course or skipping his turn aren't the only two options the Giants can choose from. Via Jim Bowden of ESPN, we also know that the Giants have discussed moving Lincecum to the bullpen for a spell.

Now that he's 2-8 with a 6.19 ERA and a 1.57 WHIP, maybe it's time to do that. The only question is whether moving Big Time Timmy Jim to the bullpen would be worth it in the long run.

That's a question that requires immediate discussion.

The Argument

Moving Lincecum to the bullpen would come with two key advantages.

One, it would give him a chance to chill out. He wouldn't feel the same kind of pressure to perform in the bullpen that he does in the starting rotation, so the change could help boost his confidence. The simple change of scenery could also help.

More importantly, moving Lincecum to the pen would give him a chance to cut loose and find his old stuff.

Lincecum wouldn't have to worry about throwing 100 or so pitches and giving the Giants six or seven good innings if they were to move him to the bullpen. He would only have to worry about getting three, four, maybe five outs. To get those outs, he could, well, go all-out.

Lincecum's fastball has been coming in at an average of just over 90 miles per hour this season, according to FanGraphs, but we've seen him dial it up to 93 and 94 miles per hour on occasion. He still has plenty of gas in his arm, and he knows how to tap into it when he needs it.

If he only had to throw 10-15 pitches per night, it stands to reason he'd be more willing to tap into that gas. He probably still can throw 95 miles per hour, maybe even 97. And if he were to start blowing such high-velocity fastballs by hitters, good things would happen with his confidence.

The other thing about working out of the bullpen is that it would give Lincecum more chances to pitch out of the stretch. Both his velocity and his control have been highly inconsistent when he's had to pitch out of the stretch this season, and hitters have taken advantage of his struggles.

If Lincecum were to come in out of the pen and start getting hitters out while pitching out of the stretch, he could use that experience in his inevitable return to the starting rotation.

There's not a whole lot the Giants can do about Lincecum's struggles if they're being brought about by a physical problem (i.e. a dead arm). But if they're being brought about by mechanical and mental issues, moving him to the pen certainly wouldn't be a bad way for them to help him get himself figured out.

And besides, moving Lincecum to the bullpen would, at the very least, get him out of the rotation for a little while. For the Giants, that would be a good thing.

The Counterargument

If we lived in a perfect world, all the stuff I just outlined would become reality and Lincecum's time in the Giants' bullpen would end up being just what the doctor ordered.

We don't live in a perfect world. There are a few very good reasons why the Giants haven't moved Lincecum to the pen yet.

First and foremost, why would the Giants want to mess with their bullpen? It has a 3.16 ERA, and the presence of guys like Santiago Casilla, Sergio Romo, and Jeremy Affeldt would force Bochy to limit Lincecum to middle-innings duty.

So the notion that a move to the bullpen would boost Lincecum's confidence is tricky. He wouldn't take kindly to being moved to the pen in the first place, and I doubt he would like being used in non-crucial innings much better. A move to the pen could therefore be a confidence-killer instead of a confidence-booster.

It could also be an arm-killer. The idea of Lincecum cutting it loose with 95-97 mile per hour fastballs sounds good, but that kind of increase in effort could do a number on Lincecum's arm. The last thing the Giants want is to put Lincecum in a situation where he would become damaged goods. That's the risk they'd be running if they had him ramp it up for a short while only to ramp it back down later on.

Furthermore, having Lincecum pitch out of the stretch more often is something that could create more problems than it would solve. Per Baseball-Reference.com, Lincecum's strikeout-to-walk ratio drops to 1.04 when he has men on base, and hitters hit him at a .292 clip in such situations. 

This is the root of Lincecum's one-bad-inning syndrome, and there's no guarantee moving him to the pen would fix the problem. Since the Giants would still be trying to win games, having a reliever who can't get men out with runners on base wouldn't do them much good.

So while there is indeed a chance that moving Lincecum to the pen would be good for everyone, there's also a chance that moving him to the pen would make everything a lot worse.

One Solution Would Be To...

Instead of having Lincecum's bullpen banishment be a temporary thing, one thing the Giants could do is make it a permanent thing.

Yup. Instead of using Lincecum as an every-fifth-day starting pitcher, the Giants could possibly use him as an everyday reliever.

With Brian Wilson out for the season and Guillermo Mota suspended for 100 games thanks to a second positive PED test, the Giants could use another arm in their pen to take some pressure off their late-inning guys (who are very good). 

If Lincecum was moved to the pen knowing it was going to be a permanent thing, he could worry simply about reinventing himself into a successful reliever, period, as opposed to reinventing himself into a reliever only so he could rediscover what made him an effective starter.

As a full-time reliever, it's not hard to imagine Lincecum coming in out of the pen throwing blazing fastballs with cartoonish offspeed stuff. He'd look just like the old Lincecum, except for one or two innings at a time instead of six to seven innings at a time.

Since he's making $18 million this year and $22 million next year, Lincecum would be the highest-paid reliever in the majors. That wouldn't be ideal for either the Giants or Lincecum, who will be a free agent after the 2013 season, but the Giants wouldn't be in a position to complain if Lincecum helped them win ballgames.

From their perspective, it would be simple: better to have an effective reliever than an ineffective starter.

The Grand Conclusion

If the Giants were to move Lincecum to the bullpen, the move would have to be permanent. At the very least, it would have to be for the rest of the 2012 season and into the playoffs.

It would be a desperate move, but you know what they say about desperate times, am I right?

Of course I am.

But here's why I wouldn't do it if I ran the Giants.

For starters, the Giants aren't desperate. They may be an astonishing 2-12 in games started by Lincecum, but they're still 37-30 and just five games behind the Los Angeles Dodgers in the NL West.

When Lincecum doesn't pitch, they're the best team in baseball. Even despite his pitching, they'd still be one of the NL's two wild card teams if the season ended today.

Second, moving Lincecum to the pen on either a permanent or temporary basis could solve one problem, but it certainly would create another problem. The Giants would have to figure out who to start in his place, and they're not overflowing with options in that regard.

Third, as bad as Lincecum's numbers are, there are numbers that suggest he can't possibly be this bad.

Dayn Perry of CBSSports.com beat me to the punch with a lot of this stuff, but I'll point out what he pointed out anyway. Lincecum's LOB (left-on-base) percentage is a mere 60.5 percent, which is absurdly low. His BABIP (batting average on balls in play) with men on base is an absurdly high .343.

These numbers suggest that luck hasn't been on Lincecum's side. So does his FIP, a stat that measures what a pitcher's ERA should look like (see FanGraphs). Lincecum's FIP is 3.87, considerably lower than his 6.19 ERA.

It's bad. Really bad. Unfairly bad.

The good news, however, is that it can't get any worse.

If the Giants continue to be patient with Lincecum, they will be rewarded.

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