NBA Finals 2012: Dissecting Key Stats for Thunder and Heat
This NBA Finals series is about the people: LeBron James, Kevin Durant, Dwyane Wade and Russell Westbrook, but you can't escape the numbers. Game 3 and the rest of this series will be determined by one key specific statistic for both teams and one shared category.
The team that controls their key stat, and the shared stat will win the NBA championship.
Miami's Key Stat - Opponent's Field Goal Percentage
This may seem like an easy stat to identify, but it isn't as straight-forward as it appears. Some teams win while allowing teams to shoot better, or the same percentage as they do from the field.
That will not work for the Heat.
In Game 1, the Thunder consistently broke the Heat defense down off the dribble. Westbrook and Durant created easy shots in the lane for their bigs, and they shot just under 52 percent from the field.
The Heat don't have a shot-blocker to turn players away, and this dynamic creates easy shots for the Thunder and foul trouble for the Heat. When Miami is playing solid perimeter defense and switching properly as they did in Game 2, the results are easy to see.
They forced the Thunder to take more three-point shots (26 in Game 2 and 17 in Game 1) and they held them to 43 percent shooting.
This is Miami's biggest key to victory.
OKC's Key Stat - Turnovers
You simply cannot turn the ball over against the Heat, especially not in Miami. They will kill you in transition, thus igniting the crowd and improving the play of the role players.
That slippery slope will lead to the Thunder's elimination.
The Thunder have kept this under control through two games. They have had only 10 turnovers in each of the games, but those games have been played in OKC.
The Thunder must take care of the ball in Miami; if they don't, it could lead to a lopsided loss. Here is an example of the Heat taking advantage of a Thunder turnover, and this isn't even James or Wade on the finish:
Shared Stat - Rebounds
Through two games, the team that has won the battle on the boards has won the game. The key figure in this category is Chris Bosh. When he's aggressive on the boards he gives the Heat a chance in this category.
The Thunder are the stronger and more physical team up front, but Bosh proved in Game 2 he could make his mark on the glass. He grabbed 15 rebounds and his play was as much responsible for the Heat victory as anyone's.
Bosh had as many rebounds as Serge Ibaka, Kendrick Perkins and Nick Collison combined. That can't happen for the Thunder if they hope to take Game 3, or any game in this series.
In Game 1 that trio grabbed 23 rebounds and that is the production they need to sway this pivotal category.
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