Ryan Howard: Now What?

Now that the buzz over Ryan Howard's contract has slowed down, let's take a look at the whole situation.

I believe that the three year $54 million contract is good for both sides. Howard will get some serious money for the next three years and now has a golden path towards free agency. He no longer will have to be concerned with arbitration and hopefully that translates on the field.

David Murphy of the Philadelphia Daily News does a nice job of breaking down Howard's new contract.

In it Howard is entitled to a $1 million raise should he win the NL MVP in the next couple years. He also will receive $1 million from the Phillies if he is traded before November 1, 2010. I think it is safe to say that Howard will be in Philadelphia for the entire three years. Howard will make $15 million in 2009, $19 million in 2010, and $20 million in 2011, before bonuses and possible raises. Some of the other bonuses are:

• $100,000 for World Series MVP
• $50,000 for LCS MVP
• $50,000 for Gold Glove (I'd give him $3 million if he accomplishes that feat!)
• $100,000 for Silver Slugger
• $50,000 for All Star selection

While Howard should be happy with what is coming his way ,the Phillies should be pleased with the contract as well. Sure, the Phillies will be paying a lot for 180+ strike outs, but the reward outweighs the risk in this situation. In Howard's short career, he has become one of the premiere power hitters in the sport, and playing in a park like Citizens Bank Park surely helps.

Howard fills seats. People pay to see homeruns and Howard provides that. People stop what they are doing to watch Howard's at-bats on television. Howard is one of the faces of the organization and is on his way to becoming one of the faces of the National League and Major League Baseball overall.

The Phillies can easily cash on on all of Howard's success, as they already have. Howard carries the team on his back in September and if not for Howard the Phillies may not have made the playoffs in 2007 or in 2008.

With Howard's new contract, the Phillies avoid arbitration for the next three years with Howard. Will that save the Phillies money in the long run? Probably not, but it is a hassle that is now not an issue.

The club would like to sign Howard to a long term deal eventually, which Howard was not ready to sign yet. Even though Howard was not eligible to go anywhere until the end of the 2011 season anyway, having the arbitration process out of the way leaves room to work on a long-term deal with the first baseman.

I would expect that the Phillies and Howard will hold off on negotiating until the end of the 2010 season. If Howard is not signed by the midway point of the 2011 season then Howard may be preparing himself to test the free-agency waters.

Many skeptical Phillies fans believe that Howard will be gobbled up by the Yankees in 2011, who never seem to have trouble affording anybody. That philosophy may fail because Mark Teixeira is signed to an eight year deal that expires in 2016.

What about the Red Sox? Hard to tell because David Ortiz's contract expires in 2010. You would think the Red Sox will address the first base/designated hitter position with a solid investment at that point, unless they rent a player for a season and wait for the Ryan Howard sweepstakes.

If you are worried about the Mets you should probably rest easy. Carlos Delgado's contract was optioned for the 2009 season, but expires after that. After Delgado, the Mets' options run as deep as Marlon Anderson. After 2009, the Mets will have to address their first base position and may have to sign a deal that runs past Howard's free agency period.

Having ruled out the top three payrolls in the majors that would leave the Phillies as the best possible fit. Why don't we just wait and see though, right?