MLB Trade Rumors: 10 Minnesota Twins Most Likely to Be Dealt in July

To salvage their 2012 season, the 25-36 Minnesota Twins need to consider dealing some of their players.

While their offense and defense still remain solid, the Twins' pitching is finally showing signs of improvement, since cutting ties with Jason Marquis.

During the 42 games that Marquis was a Twin, Minnesota starter pitchers collectively pitched a 10-22 record, 6.48 ERA and 1.82 HR/9.  In the 16 games since Minnesota released Marquis, Twins starters have pitched a 7-7 record, 4.67 ERA, and 1.12 HR/9.  

Obviously, replacing Marquis is not the only reason why the Twins starting pitching has turned around. However, Marquis’ performances rubbed off on Minnesota’s three aces, Carl Pavano, Francisco Liriano, and Nick Blackburn.  The three pitchers combined for a 3-12 record and 6.75 ERA during Minnesota’s short-lived Marquis Era.  

Through ending this dubious era, injuries sustained by Pavano and Blackburn, and a Liriano trip to the bullpen, the Twins were able to call up other talent.

These spring call-ups have jump started the Twins by pitching a 8-3 record, combined 3.08 ERA, and collective average of six innings per outing.

This article examines potential players that the Twins should consider dealing in order to increase starting pitching depth and open up long-term franchise options.

Francisco Liriano

During his first stint as a starting pitcher this year, Francisco Liriano produced a record of 0-5, 9.45 ERA and .346 BAA in 26.2 innings, averaging just under 4.2 innings per start.  After a brief campaign as a reliever, Liriano was brought back as a starter.  In his first two starts since returning from the bullpen, Liriano pitched a 1-1 record, 0.75 ERA, .167 BAA, 12.8 K per 9, and 5.25 H per 9.

Clearly, Liriano is showing signs of his old self.  It is time to trade him, especially if he has more 1 ER, 12.8 K per 9 IP, and 5.25 H per games.

Conclusion: Trade soon.

Carl Pavano

Let’s face it.  Pavano’s year continues to go downward.  Since his last win on May 4, Pavano has pitched a 0-3 record, 8.25 ERA, 15 H per 9 innings, and 4.8 innings per outing.  Now, over a week since going on the DL, trading Pavano sounds like a moved point.

However, if Pavano returns from the DL in his 2010 form, the Twins should trade him.  At the very least, the Twins should not extend his contract pass this season, which ends at the end of the year.

Conclusion: Wait and see

Nick Blackburn

Nick Blackburn’s four full seasons as a starting pitcher have been marked by .400 to .500 records with 4.00-plus ERAs.  In general, Blackburn’s pitching and “mediocrity” can even been considered synonyms.  Though this year, mediocre might even be a stretch.

In Blackburn’s first start since returning from the DL, he earned the win, with five hits, two earned runs, over five innings pitched (3.60 ERA).  Definitely a step in the right direct.  If he can keep solid to good numbers up, he might attract some interest.

Conclusion: Backburn is a 30-year-old pitcher whose best season was a 11-11 record, 4.03 ERA, 240 hits (most among AL pitchers in 2009), it is time to trade Blackburn before the Twins are stuck paying him $5.5 million in 2013.

Denard Span

A player known for his selective hitting, good speed, and strong glove, Denard Span has been one of the few reliable players for the Twins in 2012.  Span's .293/.364/.400 have been definitely been appreciated by Minnesota. 

This makes him a potential trade candidate.  

With Josh Willingham, Ben Revere, three other OF on the team, and several Triple-A players with major league experience, Span is potentially replaceable from within.  Especially when one considers Span's $3 million a year versus the league minimum that Revere gets paid. 

Dealing Span would allow the Twins to trade for depth on their starting pitching staff. 

Conclusion:  Trade him if starting pitching is what they want.  

Matt Capps

Matt Capps is currently on pace to collect 38 saves this season.  Like Span, Capps has been one of the few Twins who have been consistent all season.  If the Twins want to free up some flexibility and money for their starting pitching, they should be looking for teams are in contention, but have shaky closers: Miami’s Heath Bell (13 SV, 17 SVP, 6.08 ERA), St. Louis’ Jason Motte (11 SV, 14 SVP, 3.71 ERA) or Chicago Sox’s Addison Reed (7 SV, 7 SVP, 4.58 ERA).

However, if the Twins continue to turn their season around, they need a reliable closer such as Matt Capps.  Therefore, that could potentially be looking to keep Capps on board.

Conclusion: If season looks dim, trade him.

Josh Willingham

Perhaps Minnesota's only true All-Star this season, Josh Willingham is a clear candidate to be dealt by the Twins in July.  To date, Minnesota has found him to worth every penny of his $7 million per year.  

While he leads Minnesota is many notable offensive categories, his .285/.401/.570 and current pace of 48 2B, 35 HR, 117 RBI, and 98 R should draw some interest come July.

Conclusion: Keep him.  However, the Twins organization has traded away other hot bats before.

Alexi Casilla

Similar to Blackburn, Alexi Casilla is a player with a career of subpar to mediocre seasons, who is currently having a particularly poor year.  Unlike Blackburn, Casilla is not currently showing any signs that he might turn his year around.  Hitting .270 to .280 this year sound like a pipe-dream as Casilla's average has continued to decline from .248 to .230 since mid-May.

Casilla is a lifetime .250 hitter who has not played more than 100 games in the bigs, but the Twins pay him $1.325 a year.

This season, Casilla started the 2012 season as Minnesota’s everyday second baseman.   Currently, Casilla has started roughly two-thirds of games at 2B and one-third on the bench.

Conclusion: Try to trade him or do not resign him after this year.  Odds are that Casilla will never hit above .280, steal more than 15 bases, play more than 120 games in a season, or contend for a Gold Glove at second.  He is not worth $1.325 million a year.

Danny Valencia

Danny Valencia was Minnesota’s everyday third baseman in 2010 and 2011.  After hitting .190 through 27 games, Valencia was sent down to Triple-A.  Valencia’s current Triple-A stats are not going to earn him a spot on the Twins any time soon (.231/.250/.350 through 30 games).

The logic behind dealing Valencia is quite simple.  Valencia sort of fell victim to the sophomore jinx in 2011 (.246, 15 HR, and second-most errors committed at third) and obviously is not having a comeback year in his third year.  

Conclusion: Cut ties if he cannot turn it around soon.

Tsuyoshi Nishioka

The signing of Tsuyoshi Nishioka has turned into one of the biggest blunders in recent Twins history. After dropping $5 million for the exclusive negotiating rights, the Twins signed him to 3 years at $9.25 million.  In his less than impressive rookie campaign in 2011, Tsuyoshi lasted just 68 games (.226 BA, 15 BB, 43 SO, 2 SB) before breaking his leg.

Like many MLB teams, the Twins fell victim the hype of NPB “superstars.”  Not every Japanese star turns out to be an Ichiro.

To make matters worse, Tsuyoshi did not make the Twins roster in his sophomore season.  He is currently hitting .214 through 38 games at the Triple-A level.  

Conclusion: A bust?  Yes. A superstar in Japan?  Yes. A superstar in America? No.  Maybe another MLB team can use a $3 million a year, Triple-A infielder.

Justin Morneau

Justin Morneau’s 2012 season and career appear on the up-and-up since returning from the DL on May 16.  Since his return, Morneau has increased his batting average by 18 points, improved slugging percentage by 39 points, and has not missed a single game.

Morneau is batting .246, 10 HR, and 32 RBI in 45 games this season while he is currently on pace to hit 27 HR and 88 RBI. His increased offensive production is worth considering.  

However, at 31-years-old and $15 million a year, the Twins need to consider his long-term potential.

Conclusion:  See what they can get for him before his contract ends in 2013.