US Open Odds 2012: Why Rory McIlroy Is Not Smart-Money Favorite

Rory McIlroy is the second-ranked player in the world, but you shouldn't bet on him this week at the U.S. Open. 

The 23-year-old defending champ won last year's Open at Congressional, but the tournament moves to Olympic Club in 2012. It will take a monumental effort from McIlroy to pull off the victory; but if anyone can do it, it's the game's brightest young star.

Still, you must be weary of betting on McIlroy. Let's take a look why. 

The Odds Aren't Worth It

According to sportsbook.ag, McIlroy has 10/1 odds to win, making him the second favorite, only behind Tiger Woods.

Still, if you're planning on betting on a golf tournament, it's usually smart to avoid the favorites just because so many different golfers can win. Instead, you should go with a middle-tier player because their payoff is much bigger and anything can happen.

I'll let ESPN's Gene Wojciechowski sum it up for me:

"Favorites and Olympic Club don't get along at the U.S. Open. Just look at the past winners. Upset city."

McIlroy Isn't Playing Well

Golf isn't like other sports. In basketball, for instance, if a 40 percent shooter has missed 17 straight three-pointers, you would expect the law of averages to come into play and he would hit a hot streak eventually.

In golf, however, if someone is playing bad, it's usually because there is something wrong with their stroke or confidence. It's not something you simply expect to see turn around all of a sudden. 

McIlroy is coming off a seventh-place finish at the St. Jude Classic, but he double-bogied the final hole to lose the co-lead. 

In the two tournaments before St. Jude, McIlroy failed to make the cut—the only two he's missed all season.

McIlroy started off the season with four top-five finishes in five tournaments, but his play has taken a step back in the last month. 

Olympic Will Be Tough

McIlroy won at Congressional last year with a 16-under, but that just means things are going to be made even tougher this year. 

The best score ever at Olympic Club at the U.S. Open was turned in by Scott Simpson, who shot just three-under in 1987. 

The rough and traps are going to present many problems. McIlroy, who is 127th in the world in driving accuracy, is going to get burned by those problems. A patient, methodical, accurate golfer is going to win this tournament.

That isn't McIlory.

Back-to-Back

Not even history is on McIlroy's side.

The last golfer to win back-to-back U.S. Open titles was Curtis Strange back in 1988 and 1989. Plenty of golfers have won multiple Open championships, but you almost never see someone win twice in a row.

If McIlory is going to win this year, he's going to have to break 23 years of history. That is not something I'm going to bet on. 

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