Euro 2012: Italy vs. Croatia Group C Match Preview

After the first round of games in Euro 2012's Group C, the more impressive performances of the group were turned in by Italy and Croatia.

The Italians proved to be incredibly disruptive to the Spanish tiki-taka, denying the Spaniards their 15th consecutive win in competitive matches, and earning a well-deserved point that many by the end of the match believed could have—or even should have—been three.

The Croats came out of the gate fast in a crucial opening matchup against Ireland, opening the scoring in the third minute on their way to a 3-1 victory.

Thursday's matchup between the two teams is another hugely important match, particularly for Italy, who would be unlikely to recover and claim a spot in the quarterfinals should they lose.

Here is a closer look at the second-round Group C matchup between these two teams.

Tale of the Tape

Italy		Croatia
1910	Founded	1990 (first match as independent nation)
Azzurri	Nickname	Vatreni
12	FIFA World Ranking	8
1/16	Best/Worst Ranking	3/125
4 (1934, 1938, 1982, 2006)	World Championships	0 (Best result: 3rd place 1998)
1 (1968)	European Championships	0 (Best result: Quarterfinal 1996, 2008)
Cesare Prandelli	Coach	Slaven Bilic
Gianluigi Buffon	Captain	Darijo Srna
1	Head-to-head wins (2 draws)	3
Group Stage	Last World Cup	DNQ
Quarterfinal	Last European Championship	Quarterfinal
WLLLD	Last 5 Matches	DLWDW

Italy in the Tournament

Italy surprised many by taking the game to defending champions Spain in their opener.

Several controversial moves—chiefly the use of a 3-5-2 formation by Cesare Prandelli and the use of midfield enforcer Daniele De Rossi as the center of that three-man back line—paid off handsomely for the Azzurri, who were able to keep 40 percent of possession in the match.

That was quite an achievement against a team like Spain that normally enjoys 65 to 70 percent of the ball.

The Azzurri threatened the Spanish goal on a consistent basis, forcing Iker Casillas to make more saves than he had had to make through all of qualifying.  Their lone goal in the 1-1 draw, after a little more than an hour, was well deserved and well executed, with Andrea Pirlo slipping a perfect through ball to substitute Antonio Di Natale, who slotted the ball past Casillas.

Casillas had to keep five other Italian shots out, including a cracking shot from Antonio Cassano, an impressive volley from Claudio Marchisio (a candidate for goal of the tournament), a great header by Thiago Motta and a point-blank shot from Marchisio in the 89th minute that would have been a goal had it not been straight at the goalkeeper.

Defensively De Rossi was the player of the game, consistently disrupting the Spanish passing lanes and making several last-ditch tackles that would have had dire consequences had they not come off right.

Spain's quick response to Di Natale's opener was the result of an uncharacteristic mistake by Giorgio Chiellini—who abandoned his post in the center of the field to press the ball and opened a huge hole in front of Gianluigi Buffon—and a lapse by Emanuele Giaccherini—who, while playing out of position as a wing-back, allowed Cesc Fabregas to get in front of him.

Despite Spain's edge in possession, they didn't put up many serious threats to the Italian goal, often settling for long-range attempts.  The Italians were the better team for large portions of the match and really deserved all three points from a tough match.

Croatia in the Tournament

The Croatians dominated Ireland on Sunday.  

Taking advantage of Ireland's natural tendency to cede possession, play organized defense, and counter-attack, they seized the initiative and attacked early, causing the usually solid Ireland back four to splinter under the pressure.

The Irish attempt to get back into the game was quashed, as they were unable to rally and bring much to bear on Stipe Pletikosa's goal after Croatia retook the lead before the half.

Despite their easy win, the Croatians also took advantage of a tremendous run of fortune.

All three of their goals were helped into the net by Lady Luck.  Mario Mandzukic's first goal should have been saved by Ireland keeper Shay Given—he was either screened from the shot or was prevented by injury from getting to it in time.

Nikica Jelavic's goal on the stroke of halftime was gifted to him when Stephen Ward scuffed a clearance and sent the ball straight to the Everton man—who would have been in an offside position had the ball come off a Croatian foot.

Mandzukic's luck was on again just after the restart. His header hit the post and rebounded off the back of Given's head and into the net.

The goal put the game out of reach.

Their run of good luck continued when Robbie Keane was upended in the box in the 62nd minute, but was not awarded a penalty that could have made the last half-hour of the game a nervy finish.

This isn't to say that the Croatians didn't play a good game—they completely dominated and made a normally organized Irish defense look foolish at times, while squelching any attempt the Irish made to get back into the match in the second half.

It was a performance that has made their remaining group games against Spain and Italy tantalizing to watch.

Key Players: Italy

Antonio Cassano

The controversial striker ran wild amongst the Spanish defenders Sunday, forcing Iker Casillas into a difficult save in the first half and supplying service to several close calls for the Spanish defense.  

He is unlikely to play a full 90 minutes in this tournament, as he continues to recover from minor heart surgery in November.

But if he can cause the havoc he caused against a team like Spain, one can only imagine what he'll be able to do against the lesser competition that is the rest of the group.

He will be counted on to lead the forward line the rest of the tournament.

Andrea Pirlo

Pirlo's metronomic passing was on full display against the Spaniards, and his assist for Di Natale's goal was a thing of beauty.

He will be even more important against Croatia, where Italy stands to see a lot more of the ball than they did against the world's top team.

Expect a man-of-the-match performance.

Daniele De Rossi

De Rossi's turn as the center of Prandelli's three-man defense was a master class from someone who had barely ever played the position before.  He consistently disrupted the Spanish passing lanes and made several last-ditch challenges that would have resulted in a Spanish goal or a Spanish penalty had been even the slightest bit off.

It will be interesting to see if Prandelli keeps him in that role again, or if he returns to the diamond 4-4-2 that Italy dominated the qualifiers with, returning De Rossi to his normal midfield position.

Either way De Rossi will be important in disrupting Croatia's attack, in the back or at midfield.

Key Players: Croatia

Mario Mandzukic

Mandzukic, a free agent since his contract with Wolfsburg expired, cashed in on a large chunk of luck to score a brace against an Ireland defense that had its back broken early on.

He'll have to be in form against an Italian defense that allowed only two goals in qualifying and effectively nullified the vaunted Spanish attack for much of Sunday's game.  He can't count on a more talented Italian team being as disorganized as the Irish.

Luka Modric

Modric proved his quality Sunday, constantly making space for himself, controlling the Croatian attack and finding the target twice with shots.

He'll have his work cut out for him against a team that figures to control possession and attack a lot more that Ireland did.

He'll also have to stay disciplined—he'll be carrying a card into Thursday's match. His suspension from the final group game against Spain would be backbreaking for the Vatreni.

Vedran Corluka

The Bayer Leverkusen man made his international debut against Italy six years ago, and he's one of six men on the team with more than 50 caps.  He will be charged with helping to keep Cassano bottled up, forcing Italy to rely on its younger and talented, but less proven, forwards, like Sebastian Giovinco and Mario Balotelli.

Manager: Italy

In spite of some questionable handling of the calcioscommesse scandal, Prandelli was vindicated in the match against Spain.  His tactical decisions were spot-on, as was his decision to bring on sniper Antonio Di Natale as a sub, who continued his fantastic three-year run of form by scoring with his first touch.

That said, he has several decisions to make before Thursday's matchup.

First and foremost is the left side of defense.  He asked a lot of Emanuele Giaccherini–a winger with Cesena before becoming an attacking midfielder for Antonio Conte's Juventus this year—to make his international debut against Spain as a wing-back.

Giaccherini didn't get much into the game, and his mistake in allowing Cesc Fabregas to get in front of him was one of the keys to Spain's equalizing goal.

ESPN's Ian Darke noted Palermo's Federico Balzaretti—the team's only natural left-back—warming up on the sideline towards the end of the game.

It's time for Prandelli to plug him in.

That side of the field was a focal point of the Spanish attack as the game progressed, and the full-backs can expect more action from Croatia, who play much wider than Spain does.

Prandelli also must decide whether to give Mario Balotelli another run at the forward position.

Mario was anything but super Sunday, contributing little to Italy's attack, completely brain-cramping in a one-on-one situation with Iker Casillas, and getting himself booked within the first 40 minutes of the match.  After being substituted, he looked totally uninterested in anything on the bench, at least until Italy scored.

Antonio Di Natale looked far more dangerous and could be a good match with Cassano.  I would only consider Balotelli off the bench for the rest of this tournament, when he can attack tired defenses—and will have less of an opportunity to earn a second yellow card.

His final decision will be whether to stick with the 3-5-2 that worked so well against Spain, or revert to the diamond 4-4-2 that he leaned on during qualifying.

I think that he should make the latter move.  The 3-5-2 worked so well Sunday because the Spaniards play a very narrow style, looking to pass through the middle for their goals.

The Croatians are a team that play wider and whose strikers are taller.  It would be better to revert to a four-man defense to allow better coverage of the wings, as well as put more height in the box.

As fantastic as De Rossi was against the Spaniards, he's generously listed at 6' and would lose any aerial battle against Mandzukic or Jelavic; whereas Giorgio Chiellini and Leonardo Bonucci are excellent ball-winners in the air.

Manager: Croatia

Croatia's manager has been in the news for a while now after it was announced that he would be stepping down after this tournament. He will be the new manager of Lokomotiv Moscow in the Russian Super League.  

Judging by his team's start to the tournament, they want to send him out in style.

Bilic's tenure has been full of ups and downs with the Croatian national team.

They beat out England to top their qualification group for Euro 2008, where they were eliminated in heartbreaking fashion in the quarterfinals after allowing a last-gasp equalizer to Turkey, who proceeded to the semifinals on penalties.

Drawn again with England in qualification for the 2010 World Cup, the Vatreni were hit hard by injuries.  England ended Croatia's 14-year unbeaten run at home early in qualifying before hammering them 5-1 at Wembley—the worst loss in Croatian history.

They failed to qualify for the tournament.

Bilic was expected to step down after 2010, but stayed on for Euro 2012.  The qualification phase was up-and-down for the Croatians, who were beaten out for automatic qualification by Greece despite being the group's top seed. Croatia had to win a grudge-match playoff against Turkey to qualify for the finals, which they did on 3-0 aggregate.

Bilic doesn't really have any major issues in his squad.  He'll likely keep the same starting XI on Thursday.

Recent Matchups

Friendly, August 16, 2006, Croatia 2 Italy 0

The last match between these teams was six years ago.  It was a day of firsts: first match in charge for both Bilic and Italy manager Roberto Donadoni, as well as Italy's first match as World Champions.

It was a bad match to judge form on, as the regulars of the Italian side were all resting on their laurels after their World Cup win.

Only one Italian—goalkeeper Marco Amelia, who backed up Buffon in Germany—was on the 23-man roster that claimed glory in Berlin.

First half goals from Eduardo and Modric gave the Croatians a victory against a severely underpowered Italian side, although two players from that Italian lineup, Giorgio Chiellini and Antonio Di Natale, figure to be major players on Thursday.

Key Matchup 1

Andrea Pirlo vs. Luka Modric

The midfield maestros of either side will be fighting a duel that may determine the outcome of the match.

It's an interesting contrast of styles.

Pirlo, a typical regista, is more of a deep-lying playmaker who orchestrates the Italian attack with pinpoint passes from the back.

Modric is more of an attacking midfielder who leads from the front, frequently joining in the attack and menacing the goal himself.  He has an uncanny ability to make space for himself.

The winner of this battle is likely to be the one whose team wins the match's possession battle.

The question will be whether Pirlo can execute the possession style Prandelli has instilled, or whether Croatia can overpower the relatively younger and less experienced Italians and continue the form they saw against Ireland.

Key Matchup 2

Mario Mandzukic vs. Giorgio Chiellini

Mandzukic was deadly in the air on Sunday, and the Irish didn't seem to have an answer for him.

Enter Chiellini, the three-time Serie A defensive player of the year.  One of the tallest players in the Italy roster and a master in the air.  

Chiellini didn't have a particularly good game against Spain.  He made a critical mistake that opened up the space for Cesc Fabregas to make the run for his goal—the second-straight major tournament game in which Chiellini has made a critical error.

The final match of the 2010 World Cup group stage saw his mishandling of a throw-in lead to the deciding goal in Italy's 3-2 loss to Slovakia.

He'll be looking to make amends for those mistakes Thursday.  

Croatia is a team that uses a much wider approach than Spain, so he'll have to use his aerial prowess to stop the Croatian forward from scoring.

Mandzukic is going to be looking to do exactly what he did against Ireland: win battles in the air and get the ball on target.

If he does, his next contract may grow quite a bit.

Key Matchup 3

Vedran Corluka vs. Antonio Cassano

Cassano ran wild against the Spanish defense, and Corluka is going to have the stiff task of keeping him from doing the same thing.

Corluka and his teammates at the back weren't really tested by the Irish, but Prandelli's side will likely take the initiative much more, giving the Croatian defense a much stiffer test.

Corluka, who made his debut against Italy in their August friendly six years ago, must lead his team in bottling up a clearly in-form Cassano and whoever Prandelli decides will partner him in attack.

Italy is likely to do as well as Cassano does in this tournament. It is critical to the Azzurri for him to play the way he did against Spain, finding space, shooting when he can and supplying teammates with opportunities to score.

Predicting Starting XI's

Italy

		Buffon
Maggio	Chiellini		Bonucci	Balzaretti
		Pirlo
	De Rossi		Motta
		Marchisio
	Cassano		Di Natale

Croatia

		Pletikosa
Srna	Corluka		Schildenfeld	Strinic
		Vukojevic
	Rakitic		Perisic
		Modric
	Mandzukic		Jelavic

Prediction

The Croatians are a good team and played very well against Ireland, but they had a lot of luck along the way.

The Italians played a fantastic match against Spain.

This will be the match to watch before taking a nap while the Spaniards thrash Ireland.

Considering the amount of possession the Italians had against ball-hogs Spain, and their tendency under Prandelli to dominate possession against lesser teams (no offense to Croatia, but when you open a tournament against Spain, everyone else qualifies as lesser opposition), I think the Croatians are going to get a rude awakening.

Italy's defensive organization won't splinter as Ireland's did—they're far more talented and have much more big-match experience.  Unlike the Irish—whose tactics are as pure a form of catenaccio as you're going to find in this tournament—the Italians will play on the front foot and heap pressure onto Croatia. The Croatian back four will get their first real test of the tournament—and a taste of what they're in for on Monday against Spain.

Cassano will continue his great form and score a goal, and I expect Di Natale to play well and score, either as a starter or a sub.  The Croats will get a few shots, but nothing that Buffon can't handle.

My final prediction: Italy 2, Croatia 0.