2012 NFL Statistics: Predictions for Every Starting Quarterback

Statistics.

Some will have you believe they mean nothing, like a certain NFL starting quarterback. While the scoreboard is what ultimately matters in football, statistics are always part of the equation. Some coaches might think that stats are for losers, but they are a great tool in helping to predict winners. 

Of course, the one position where statistics matter the most is quarterback. Offensive pilots might be winning games, but statistics give a deeper understanding of their impact in those victories. Conversely, a losing quarterback might not be to blame.

Then there are fantasy football implications. Stats are of the upmost importance for guys and gals who take fantasy football seriously, which is a significant amount of NFL fans. 

It is still early, but here are my predictions for quarterback statistics this season.

Arizona Cardinals

John Skelton

One of the quarterback competitions that is close to call will fall to Skelton, and I am not the only one who thinks so.

Ken Whisenhunt is not the type of coach to let personnel decisions be made because of financial reasons. Arizona may have signed Kolb to a huge contract after trading away a starting cornerback and a high draft pick, but that guarantees him nothing in training camp.

Skelton is still a work in progress, but he has shown more upside than Kolb with Arizona. He seems to have better chemistry with Larry Fitzgerald, and a bolstered offensive line and receiving corps can only help.

Projection: 3,700 yards, 23 touchdowns, 20 interceptions; 200 rushing yards, one touchdown

Atlanta Falcons

Matt Ryan

Is a breakout season in store for the fourth-year quarterback? His statistics certainly seem to be trending in that direction:

Year	Comp.	Att.	Comp. %	Yards	Yds/Att.	TD	INT	NFL Rating
2009	263	451	58.3	2,916	6.47	22	14	80.9
2010	357	571	62.5	3,705	6.49	28	9	91
2011	347	566	61.3	4,177	7.38	29	12	92.2

Combine the trend with the chatter coming from Falcons practice about passing more and we have a recipe for a big year from the fifth-year quarterback.

It helps to have big-time talent in Roddy White, Julio Jones, and the ageless Tony Gonzalez.

Projection: 4,250 yards, 34 touchdowns, 13 interceptions; 75 rushing yards, one touchdown

Baltimore Ravens

Joe Flacco

While Ryan was flushed out of the playoffs in the first round yet again, his 2008 draft buddy was a dropped touchdown pass and perhaps a missed field goal away from the Super Bowl last year.

There is certainly room for improvement for the ever-confident quarterback in Baltimore. Flacco has never been as productive as Ryan during his time in the NFL, though he has not enjoyed the weaponry Ryan has had in Atlanta either. 

Baltimore has done a good job in acquiring pieces for Flacco. Anquan Boldin is on the decline, but the Ravens have Torrey Smith, Dennis Pitta, Ed Dickson and a pass-catching threat out of the backfield in Ray Rice. 

I expect an uptick in Flacco's statistics, but not nearly to the same level as his Falcons counterpart.

Projection: 3,775 yards, 24 touchdowns, 12 interceptions; 75 rush yards, one touchdown

Buffalo Bills

Ryan Fitzpatrick

The Harvard product took the league a bit by surprise to begin the 2011 season before falling off as it wore on. Losing Fred Jackson and Demetress Bell likely played a big part in that.

Buffalo has moved on from Bell, but Jackson is back with a fresh contract. He and C.J. Spiller will help keep the pressure off Fitzpatrick both in the running game and as pressure-release valves underneath the defense.

His yards per attempt (YPA) was a pedestrian 6.74 last season, and there are question marks in his receiving corps behind Stevie Johnson. Hopefully, a combination of Donald Jones, David Nelson, Naaman Roosevelt and rookie T.J. Graham can step up for their quarterback.

We may have seen Fitzpatrick's ceiling, or the best may be yet to come. The 29-year-old is in his seventh season, but he may just be hitting his stride on an improved Buffalo team.

Projection: 3,750 yards, 25 touchdowns, 19 interceptions; 175 rushing yards, one touchdown

Carolina Panthers

Cam Newton

Can he make history again?

The reigning Rookie of the Year broke the all-time record for rushing touchdowns by a quarterback last year, tallying 14 en route to a fantastic first season.

While he may be hard-pressed to come close to that number again—particularly with Mike Tolbert in town to do the dirty work at the goal line—Newton also surpassed 4,000 yards last season. The problem with that number is that he got over 20 percent of that in his first two weeks as he burst into the league with 854 yards passing.

Newton averaged 222 yards per game (YPG) and threw 16 touchdowns and 12 interceptions over his final 12 games as defenses began to figure him. He will need to do better than that if he is going to improve in his sophomore campaign. 

Projection: 3,850 yards, 25 touchdowns, 16 interceptions; 600 rushing yards, six touchdowns

Chicago Bears

Jay Cutler

The last time Cutler and Brandon Marshall were on the same team, the quarterback threw for over 4,500 yards in just his third year in the league.

Circumstances are obviously different for the two teammates nowadays, but they are both in their primed for huge seasons. 

Cutler's biggest obstacle will be his porous offensive line. Hopefully offensive line guru-turned-offensive-coordinator Mike Tice will help right that ship.

His next biggest obstacle might be Marshall's knuckleheaded tendencies. If the receiver can finally keep his head on straight off the field and the offensive line can provide halfway decent pass protection, look for a big uptick in Cutler's numbers.

Projection: 4,350 yards, 31 touchdowns, 17 interceptions; 150 rush yards, one touchdown

Cincinnati Bengals

Andy Dalton

Dalton's passing numbers as a rookie were eerily similar to Newton's over his final 12 games, averaging 232 YPG and throwing 16 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. Though he did not light up fantasy scoreboards like his counterpart in Carolina, Dalton had a solid rookie campaign.

It helps that he had future all-world receiver A.J. Green to target. Jerome Simpson and Jermaine Gresham were also good weapons for the rookie quarterback.

Simpson has departed for the Vikings, and a wide-open competition is being held between Brandon Tate, Armon Binns, Jordan Shipley and rookies Mohamed Sanu and Marvin Jones to determine his replacement. 

Dalton's immediate future seems bright with all of these receivers in the fold.

Projection: 3,725 yards, 23 touchdowns, 15 interceptions; 175 rushing yards, one touchdown

Cleveland Browns

Brandon Weeden

Cleveland did not draft a 28-year-old rookie quarterback to have him sit. 

Though there is some semblance of a quarterback competition with incumbent Colt McCoy still in town, this is Weeden's job to lose. 

Unfortunately, he dons the mantle of starter on an offense that features a far from sure-handed Greg Little and little else at wide receiver. Mohammed Massaquoi, Josh Cribbs, relatively unknown commodities Jordan Norwood and Carlton Mitchell and rookies Travis Benjamin and Josh Cooper make up the rest of their disappointing unit. 

Of course, those receivers might have been languishing because of poor quarterback play in recent years. If Weeden can bring out the best in those guys, he will be a pleasant surprise.

But don't hold your breath.

Projection: 3,350 yards, 18 touchdowns, 16 interceptions

Dallas Cowboys

Tony Romo

Romo is one of those quarterbacks who quietly amasses great statistics that are overshadowed by annual disappointments.

Last season was no different as the Cowboys could not muster a playoff appearance despite Romo's gaudy numbers. He averaged 8.1 YPA en route to a 4,200-yard, 31-touchdown season, but costly mistakes at critical times did not help his team's cause.

Despite the departure of a surprising Laurent Robinson, Romo retains a great set of weapons in Miles Austin, Dez Bryant and Jason Witten. If his running backs can just stay healthy, the offense will be a dangerous one to contend with. 

Can he finally rid himself of the mistake monkeys on his back?

Projection: 4,250 yards, 32 touchdowns, 13 interceptions; 200 rushing yards, two touchdowns

Denver Broncos

Peyton Manning

Will the dark blue knight rise, or will the bane of injury rear its ugly head?

Manning is perhaps the most difficult quarterback to project this season because of uncertainty surrounding his surgically repaired neck. Not only did that force a year-long layoff for the 35-year-old quarterback entering his 14th season, but he is just now throwing with the arm strength he once had.

But can it hold up to the rigors of a full NFL slate?

Manning is also learning a new offense for the first time in a long while, but the highly intelligent and hard-working quarterback should have no issues there.

It is an offense that features two young, talented receivers in Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker and a great pass-catching tight end in Jacob Tamme. The Broncos return a good running game as well, led by the resurgent Willis McGahee and rookie Ronnie Hillman.

If Manning can stay healthy, I expect a big season from him, though perhaps a falloff from the numbers we are used to seeing from the veteran.

Projection: 4,200 yards, 37 touchdowns, 15 interceptions

Detroit Lions

Matthew Stafford

The stud Lions quarterback was the fourth in the history of the NFL to crack 5,000 yards passing in a season.

At the age of 23.

He is a year wiser now, and poised to take a leap to an even higher level if Calvin Johnson can stave off the Madden Curse. 

Stafford's main concern will be an offensive line that left a few things to be desired last season. Riley Reiff enters the fray as a rookie, but Gosder Cherilus and Jeff Backus are hanging on to the starting gigs—for now.

Even if the offensive line is only marginally improved, Stafford's weapons cache continues to get bigger. Aside from the best receiver in the league, the Lions sport Nate Burleson, Titus Young and rookie Ryan Broyles at receiver. They also have blossoming Brandon Pettigrew and Tony Scheffler at tight end.

About the only real downer is the running back situation, which is in a bit of flux with Kevin Smith and Jahvid Best's injury woes and Mikel Leshoure's legal trouble. 

Projection: 4,850 yards, 37 touchdowns, 15 interceptions; 150 rushing yards, one touchdown

Green Bay Packers

Aaron Rodgers

The reigning MVP would have surpassed 5,000 yards passing last season had the Packers not decided to rest their starters during Week 17.

While Drew Brees shattered Dan Marino's yardage record last season, Rodgers was a model of efficiency. He broke the lesser-celebrated NFL rating record, posting a 122.5 rating on the season. He also smoked the league with a 9.2 YPA and 45:6 touchdown-to-interception ratio.

Green Bay's stud quarterback was simply amazing, and he is just entering his prime. That must be a scary thought for opposing defenses.

Part of his success this year will come from familiarity—the Packers retained most of their offense aside from offensive coordinator Joe Philbin, who was hired away by the Dolphins. 

From Greg Jennings and Donald Driver to Jermichael Finley and D.J. Williams, the depth chart in Green Bay is stacked with weapons for the best quarterback in the league.

Projection: 4,950 yards, 44 touchdowns, nine interceptions; 175 yards rushing, three touchdowns

Houston Texans

Matt Schaub

The Texans were rolling until Schaub rolled his foot.

Well, the injury may not have happened exactly that way, but a foot injury knocked the veteran out for the season nonetheless. 

T.J. Yates filled in admirably—especially considering he was a sixth-round pick and the third-string quarterback—but could not take the Texans deep into the postseason.

Houston is hoping Schaub will be back to lead their team to greener pastures this season, but he and Andre Johnson must remain healthy to do so.

Projection: 4,100 yards, 33 touchdowns, 14 interceptions; 100 rushing yards, one touchdown

Indianapolis Colts

Andrew Luck

Picture 1998. The Colts had come off a 3-13 campaign, landing them the top pick in the draft. They selected Peyton Manning with that pick, who, despite his bright future, led them to another 3-13 campaign.

Manning performed relatively well that season, throwing for over 3,700 yards, but he threw 28 interceptions to 26 touchdowns. He also led the league with 575 pass attempts as a rookie.

Do not expect that out of Andrew Luck.

Indeed, the Colts might be playing from behind during many games, but I do not expect them to throw him to the wolves that many times this season. For one, the horrid offensive line was not improved this offseason. For another, he does not exactly have elite weaponry—unless you consider 36-year-old Reggie Wayne and concussion prone Austin Collie elite.

Projection: 3,550 yards, 23 touchdowns, 19 interceptions; 150 rushing yards, two touchdowns

Jacksonville Jaguars

Blaine Gabbert

The second-year quarterback out of Missouri got a nice upgrade at receiver this offseason, but he might have to wait a while to play with one of his new toys.

Justin Blackmon was recently arrested for aggravated DUI, and a suspension is probable for the rookie receiver. That will not help Gabbert get off on the right foot.

Laurent Robinson was brought in as a free agent after a breakout season with the Cowboys, but how much of that was because of his quarterback? He is a wild card for Gabbert—if Robinson can repeat his performance from 2011, Gabbert will get better accordingly. 

The Jaguars still sport a great running game with Maurice Jones-Drew—assuming there are no major contract disputes—and I expect them to lean on that some more this season.

Projection: 3,150 yards, 21 touchdowns, 23 interceptions; 150 rushing yards, two touchdowns

Kansas City Chiefs

Matt Cassel

It's put up or shut up time for Cassel.

Though the injury bug that ravaged the Chiefs last season hit quarterback too, he has simply not performed during his tenure in Kansas City. 

Still, he has some great players to target. Dwayne Bowe is coming into his own as a top receiver, Jonathan Baldwin is looking to make an impact in his second year and Tony Moeacki hopes to build on a great rookie season after an injury knocked him out of his sophomore season. 

Having a dynamic running back like Jamaal Charles cannot hurt either.

Projection: 3,250 yards, 23 touchdowns, 15 interceptions; 100 rushing yards, two touchdowns

Miami Dolphins

Matt Moore

The winner of the South Beach shootout may not spend the whole season as the starter.

I expect Matt Moore to retain his starting job going into the regular season, but if the Dolphins falter out of the gate, the pressure to try out rookie Ryan Tannehill might grow too strong.

Heck, even if the Dolphins play well, Moore is just a few bad games away from the hook.

That is the reason for my depressed projection below.

Projection: 2,900 yards, 17 touchdowns, 12 interceptions

Minnesota Vikings

Christian Ponder

Ponder had a topsy-turvy rookie season after wresting the starting job from Joe Webb last season, but he enters this year with a full offseason under his belt and the starting job in his pocket.

Will he be able to capitalize on the opportunity?

Fortunately, Ponder has the dynamic Percy Harvin to throw to, and Jerome Simpson is no stranger to performing as a No. 2 receiver. 

If Adrian Peterson can make it back early and be effective, defenses will be forced to stay honest, which will only help the second-year signal caller. 

Projection: 3,200 yards, 22 touchdowns, 19 interceptions; 250 rushing yards, three touchdowns

New England Patriots

Tom Brady

Is there a superlative that has not been heaped upon Tom Brady? 

Tom Terrific does not show any signs of slowing down at age 35. A year after breaking Dan Marino's record for passing yards—he did so soon after Brees accomplished the feat—he finds himself swimming in a sea of talented receivers.

New England jettisoned the ineffective Chad Ochocinco after signing Brandon Lloyd away from the Rams, and with Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez entering just their third years in the league and perennial Pro-Bowler Wes Welker coming back for more, Brady is in for another run at the record books.

Projection: 5,000 yards, 44 touchdowns, 12 interceptions

New Orleans Saints

Drew Brees

Assuming the Saints can finally do right by Brees and sign him to a long-term deal, the reigning Offensive Player of the Year should not miss a beat this season.

Well, perhaps failing to surpass Dan Marino a second time can be considered "missing a beat," but he should have a fine season.

The talented quarterback lost Robert Meachem to free agency, but Lance Moore and Devery Henderson should be ready to fill that void. The Saints also drafted Nick Toon to help the cause. 

Oh, and Brees has a 6'6" monster named Jimmy Graham to target. 

The only real concern here is the absence of Sean Peyton. Brees had his two worst games of the season when his coach was relegated to the booth for three games due to a knee injury. Whether that is a coincidence or not, the bounty scandal might be a harbinger of things to come for New Orleans this year.

Projection: 4,850 yards, 40 touchdowns, 17 interceptions; 100 rushing yards, two touchdowns

New York Giants

Eli Manning

Eli(te).

The younger Manning put himself in that conversation after a stellar year—tying for fourth in the league with 8.4 YPA and another Super Bowl victory. 

But can he keep it up?

Manning is still in his prime at 31 years old, and his offense got a facelift this offseason.

The Giants let plodding Brandon Jacobs walk only to draft the dynamic David Wilson at running back. They also shut out Mario Manningham only to luck into Rueben Randle in the second round. 

Though Hakeem Nicks' foot injury will likely keep him out of most or all of the preseason, he should be ready to go for the regular season. Whether he can stay healthy or not is a different question, but Manning has some fantastic receivers if he can stay on the field.

Between Nicks, Randle and Victor Cruz, there is plenty of speed and size in the wide receiver corps to terrorize opposing secondaries.

Projection: 4,650 yards, 31 touchdowns, 14 interceptions

New York Jets

Mark Sanchez

The question is not whether Mark Sanchez will be the starter in Week 1, it is how long he can keep that job.

He very well could have staying power as the starting quarterback, but I am not taking that one to the bank by any stretch of the imagination.

The Jets have a brutal schedule out of the gate, playing against Pittsburgh, San Francisco, Houston, a much-improved Buffalo team and a squad with a stout defense in Miami. If New York gets out to a 2-3 or 1-4 start, it will not be long before New York puts up billboards clamoring for Tebow Time.

I expect Sanchez to hold out a bit longer than that, but not by much. 

Projection: 2,150 yards, 14 touchdowns, 11 interceptions; 100 rushing yards, one touchdown

Oakland Raiders

Carson Palmer

Carson Palmer got a raw deal last year as Oakland's starter.

Granted, he may have brought it on himself by "retiring" instead of playing out his contract in Cincinnati, but the veteran was hurled into the fire after a long layoff and almost zero practice. It was no surprise that he threw interceptions at a blistering pace.

With the benefit of a full offseason to get all the way back into game shape, I expect a much better season from Palmer. He has some great young receivers in Darrius Heyward-Bay, Denarius Moore, Juron Criner and Louis Murphy.

Darren McFadden is a major threat for the Raiders as well, both as a runner and as a pass-catcher out of the backfield. Of course, he has to be healthy to be a threat. 

Projection: 3,550 yards, 27 touchdowns, 20 interceptions

Philadelphia Eagles

Michael Vick

A year removed from being the top fantasy player off some boards, Vick finds himself a bit under the radar. 

His talent is undeniable, however, and he should put up some big numbers this season if he can stay healthy.

Though replacing All-Pro Jason Peters will be a tall task, Vick has his legs to help him get out of trouble, and the talent around him at the skill positions is unmatched by most other teams.

The Eagles retained DeSean Jackson's services with the hope that he will get back to playing good football instead of worrying about getting hurt. Jeremy Maclin continues to play well on the opposite side, and Brent Celek finally emerged as a reliable target last season.

I would be remiss not to mention LeSean McCoy, who is every bit as dynamic a running back as Vick is a quarterback. His pass-catching skills out of the backfield are arguably the best in the league, making him yet another dangerous weapon for Vick to utilize.

The veteran quarterback needs to work on getting his accuracy back up—his completion percentage dipped below 60 last season after hitting a career high 62.6 in 2010.

Projection: 4,100 yards, 32 touchdowns, 15 interceptions; 500 rushing yards, five touchdowns

Pittsburgh Steelers

Ben Roethlisberger

Woe is Roethlisberger, the quarterback who has been sacked a league-high 261 times since 2006.

Thankfully, for his body's sake, the Steelers did something about his horrendous offensive line by scoring David DeCastro and Mike Adams as draft-day steals. Both will likely start and immediately improve the line. 

Aside from his line, Roethlisberger will be operating an entirely new, pass-oriented offense run by new offensive coordinator Todd Haley. 

Roethlisberger certainly has plenty of good receivers to throw to. Mike Wallace may be disappointed with his contract situation, but he still brings plenty of speed to the table. Antonio Brown and Emmanuel Sanders will duke it out for the second spot once again this preseason, but both should be on the field plenty.

All in all, expect a nice uptick for Roethlisberger this season.

Projection: 4,250 yards, 28 touchdowns, 13 interceptions; 100 rushing yards, two touchdowns

San Diego Chargers

Philip Rivers

After a down season by his standards, Rivers looks to bounce back in 2012.

Despite the departure of Vincent Jackson, he should be able to do that. Rivers was noticeably better when Antonio Gates got healthy last season, and the tight end's ability to stay on the field will be crucial to his success. 

Aside from Gates, the Chargers replaced Jackson with Robert Meachem, a perennial underachiever in New Orleans. Hopefully a chance to start in a more vertically-oriented offense than he had in New Orleans will do wonders for the sixth-year receiver and, in turn, his quarterback.

Projection: 4,400 yards, 34 touchdowns, 17 interceptions; 150 rushing yards, one touchdown

San Francisco 49ers

Alex Smith

Smith might decry statistical analysis, but his success last season came because he did not fill up the stat sheet.

At least in terms of interceptions. Unfortunately, I don't expect Smith to duplicate his five-interception performance from last season. 

Smith may have played close to mistake-free ball, but the 49ers would not have let him dangle in the wind as a free agent while they kicked the tires on the whole Peyton Manning pursuit if they felt strongly about him as their quarterback.

As long as the 49ers keep winning, his job should be safe and his defense will give San Francisco every opportunity to continue its roll. 

Smith did get some nice new toys to play with at receiver. Old Man Randy Moss came back for one more run, and reports from practice are positive on the veteran. Mario Manningham also signed as a free agent and the 49ers drafted Illinois star A.J. Jenkins in the first round.

Combine the newcomers with Michael Crabtree and Vernon Davis and Smith suddenly finds himself with a bevy of munitions with which to carve up defenses.

Projection: 3,250 yards, 21 touchdowns, 10 interceptions; 75 rushing yards, one touchdown

Seattle Seahawks

Matt Flynn

The three-headed quarterback competition for the Seahawks will come down to who is not 5'10" or an erratic quarterback.

That man is Matt Flynn.

Whether he holds onto the job or not is another story, but I expect him to have success in Seattle. Just don't expect him to throw for 7,680 yards and 96 touchdowns.

Projection: 3,550 yards, 23 touchdowns, 16 interceptions

St. Louis Rams

Sam Bradford

After a promising rookie season, Bradford crashed back down to the turf in a miserable sophomore campaign.

Part of that had to do with the abominable number of drops his receivers had—the 31 drops last season nearly comprised 10 percent of all his pass attempts.

St. Louis has done something about that, drafting Brian Quick and Chris Givens to bolster that unit. The Rams will also get a boost from the return Greg Salas and Danny Amendola, both coming back from injury.

A better season is in store for the third-year quarterback out of Oklahoma. 

Projection: 3,650 yards, 25 touchdowns, 16 interceptions

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Josh Freeman

Freeman was woefully disappointing after a solid sophomore season. He regressed in every way except rushing touchdowns, and was a big reason why the Buccaneers took three steps back after narrowly missing the playoffs in 2010.

In an entirely different outcome than 2010, when he threw just six interceptions, Freeman turned the ball over 30 times last season. He hopes to rectify that under new head coach Greg Schiano.

Unfortunately for his fantasy value, Schiano likes to run the ball a lot. Freeman should bounce back, but his statistics might not be terribly gaudy.

Projection: 3,450 yards, 21 touchdowns, 15 interceptions; 250 rushing yards, three touchdowns

Tennessee Titans

Jake Locker

In what is turning out to be one of the best camp battles of the year, I expect Matt Hasselbeck to eek out a victory and begin the season as the starter for the Titans.

Jake Locker will give him a run for his money, though, and I expect him to take the reins sooner rather than later.

This projection will turn out to be low if Locker wins the job outright, but the second-year quarterback has a bright season ahead of him if he can build on some solid appearances as a rookie.

How can he go wrong with Kenny Britt, Nate Washington, Kendall Wright and Jared Cook to throw to?

Projection: 2,650 yards, 17 touchdowns, 13 interceptions; 175 rushing yards, three touchdowns

Washington Redskins

Robert Griffin III

A new era has begun in Washington, where rocket-armed RGIII hopes to lead his team back to glory.

The best quarterback to come through the city since Mark Rypien, Griffin has a big load on his shoulders as a rookie. The Redskins gave up a great deal to get the quarterback out of Baylor.

He has delivered thus far, but as NBA great Allen Iverson would say, "we are talking about practice, man."

Griffin does have a better situation than fellow rookie Andrew Luck, however, and should outperform him statistically as a result. Though it might not be considered elite, Griffin has a nice receiving corps that includes Pierre Garcon, Leonard Hankerson, Santana Moss, Josh Morgan, and Fred Davis at tight end.

His athleticism will ultimately set him apart from Luck, at least statistically, as a rookie.

Projection: 3,650 yards, 20 touchdowns, 15 interceptions; 400 rushing yards, three touchdowns