Andy Reid Has a Hotter Seat Than Jason Garrett, but Neither Should Get Comfy

Former Philadelphia Eagle Brian Dawkins didn't rock anyone's world this week when he suggested that Eagles head coach Andy Reid should be on the hot seat in 2012. But I'll take that one step further and argue that Reid's seat should be hotter than any coach in the NFC East, including the one currently occupied by Jason Garrett in Dallas.

I know, Jerry Jones has the patience of a squirrel and the expectations of a 69-year-old billionaire. But even what Jones expects of his Cowboys doesn't measure up to what the world expects of the Eagles in 2012.

Eagles owner Jeff Lurie has been credited for his patience with Reid—and he's surely a more patient man than Jones is—but Lurie rarely had a chance to be disappointed in Reid as the team went to four straight conference championship games earlier in his tenure. Since then, things have slowed down, and now we've reached a breaking point.

The Eagles have the deepest, most talented roster in football, and yet they failed to muster a winning record or a playoff appearance last season. For that, Lurie said there was "no legitimate excuse." This year, they're arguably better, and there's no lockout to blame.

Keep in mind that while Reid has had 12-and-a-half years and talent all along the way in Philly, Garrett is only entering his second season as the full-time head coach of the Cowboys. Jones might be spontaneous, but only once in his history has he fired a coach that early in his tenure. And when he gave Chan Gailey his walking papers after two seasons in 1999, the Cowboys were an old team in decline. This is much different.

Hell, even Dave Campo lasted for three losing seasons under Jones.

You'd have to believe that it would take a disaster for Jones to give up on Garrett this quickly, especially when you consider the young talent on that Dallas team. Unless he pulls a Wade Phillips with a 1-7 start, he's as safe as a coach can be under an unpredictable owner.

Reid's situation in Philly appears to be more dire, but it's actually just as difficult to gauge. We haven't seen Lurie fire a coach in 14 years. He canned Rich Kotite in 1994 after the team lost seven straight to finish the season, and he got rid of Ray Rhodes after back-to-back miserable years in 1998.

Those were easy decisions. 

But it's a lot harder to fire a coach—especially one whom you've grown to like deeply as a friend and colleague—after an 8-8 season.

An added problem for Lurie—if you want to call it that—is that the team itself is locked in with its core personnel for several years to come. Almost every key player is signed through at least 2015, and there isn't a lot of wiggle room beyond that. So what good does it do to throw a single body off a sinking ship? And how difficult might it be to fill the head-coaching vacancy left by Reid under circumstances such as those?

With that in mind, Reid could stick in Philly a lot longer than some would expect. But I still think that without at least a playoff appearance in 2012, he'll face unemployment in the new year. 

Each coach's fate is tied specifically to how hard he falls, but if Reid and Garrett fall at relative rates—and despite the math, repeat 8-8 campaigns would indeed represent falls—then the circumstances dictate that Reid will likely be in more trouble come Black Monday.