2012 NBA Playoffs: 5 Bold Predictions for the Rest of the Western Finals
And so the San Antonio Spurs winning streak in these 2012 Playoffs came to an end at the hands of the youthful and explosive Oklahoma City Thunder.
As good as San Antonio was, it seemed somewhat implausible for them to sweep their way to the Finals, let alone the NBA title, when their opponents fielded Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook, and Lebron James and Dwyane Wade if they make the Finals.
Was Game 3 an aberration, or a sign of things to come? I'll answer that, and give a few more bold predictions in this slideshow.
No Game 7
1 of 5I have the Spurs rebounding from this performance and winning Game 4 in Oklahoma, despite OKC's raucous crowd that fuels the dynamic efforts of these young guns. When the series gets back to San Antonio, the Spurs will take care of business at the Alamo, where they are pretty much unbeatable.
Here's what happened in Game 3. Coach Scott Brooks' decision to put the best defender on his team, Thabo Sefolosha on Tony Parker threw the Spurs for a loop. Parker was unable to handle Sefolosha's superior length.
As a result, the Spurs struggled out of the gate, turning the ball over seemingly at every possession in the first. They failed to adjust quick enough, and before you knew it, the Thunder had drained a myriad of jumpers and the Spurs couldn't recover.
I trust one of the best coaches in the NBA to make the right adjustments, which I will talk about later, to nullify this.
Also, everything went ultra-perfect for OKC. They're at their best when teams either miss shots or turn the ball over and they can get out in the break.
San Antonio had 21 giveaways, eight more than their season average. They shot sub-40 percent, which hasn't happened at all during playoffs. If you're the Thunder, you can't count on a veteran team to do that for the rest of the series.
More Minutes for Manu and Other Spurs Guards
2 of 5If Thabo swallows up Tony Parker, what can the Spurs do to create offense? The Thunder won't be able to answer that question, because it will be answered in Spanish.
Manu Ginobili played 21 minutes, partially because Popovich didn't see the point in running him into a game where the flow clearly favoured the Thunder. The Spurs are 14-1 this season when Manu plays 25 minutes or more.
He will need to play a bigger role in creating the offense if Parker is having trouble with Sefolosha. He's a better passer than his 4.4 APG suggests, and will have a huge game in Game 4.
To counter the OKC small-ball, Popovich could also try more combinations of two of Gary Neal, Kawhi Leonard and Parker as the backcourt.
More Scoring in the Triple Digits
3 of 5I mentioned earlier that I don't believe San Antonio will continue to shoot the ball so poorly. This is the second-highest scoring team in the NBA, and the Thunder were third.
The Thunder could have scored 120 themselves in this game, the way the defense was being played by the Spurs, but the game was already decided, so they didn't need to.
I believe that each game for the rest of the series will see both teams score more than 100 points each. With both teams knowing that they need to run and play small-ball to win, we can expect some high-scoring, exciting games for the rest of the series.
Blair In, Bonner out
4 of 5The Thunder had 12 offensive rebounds, and 44 points in the paint. That can't happen because it opens up the kick and pop game too much for the Thunder shooters.
If you're a Spurs fan and you're watching the rotations, Matt Bonner is usually the guy who spells Boris Diaw and Tim Duncan when they need rest.
And then you're left wondering why a smart guy like Gregg Popovich is putting a dude who is slow like molasses, shot 0-for-4 including missing all three point shots he took, and turning the ball over four times. Oh and he doesn't really play any defense, either.
Blair, by contrast, had a great last regular season game against OKC (22 points), and had 10 points and 6 boards in 10 minutes of play.
Granted, it was garbage time. But this guy works his butt off and has been ultra-productive for the Spurs when given minutes.
He is also one of the more physical guys on the Spurs, and Kendrick Perkins is throwing his weight around a little too much and imposing his will on the Spurs too much. They need some toughness and brawn out there.
Westbrok Shoots the Thunder out of Another Game
5 of 5Westbrook took just 15 shots Thursday for the Thunder, while Durant had 17. I'm not necessarily suggesting that the Thunder's success is a direct correlation to Durant shooting more than Westbrook.
But in Game 1, Durant took two fewer shots than Westbrook, and in Game 2, Durant took seven fewer.
The shot distribution between Durant and Westbrook does tell you how OKC is handling the shots when it matters though. When Westbrook shoots a bit more than Durant, this is usually due to the fact that it is a closer game and Westbrook is trying to do too much by taking his man off the dribble.
Now we're through three playoff series and no one on the Mavericks, Lakers, or Spurs, is truly capable of defending Westbrook one-on-one.
I believe Westbrook hears the critics and they think he shoots too much for a "point guard". He knows about it. He will try and run the offense like a point guard, which he does serviceably, for the first three quarters.
But in crunch time, he knows he's more physical and more gifted than the guy guarding him, and I think it's in his DNA to want to take guys off the dribble. He is a shoot-first point guard. It's just who he is.
But the stats don't lie. Kevin Durant is the best pure scorer in the league. He's the best pure scorer the game has seen since Kobe Bryant at his athletic peak in 2006.
He needs to be the undisputed first option on offense no matter who is guarding him. Anything less, and the Thunder will be discombobulated in crunch time.





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