Daniel Cormier vs. Shane Carwin: Head to Toe Breakdown

Heavyweight champions rarely suffer from a shortage of willing contenders vying for their title, but that's the problem recently crowned Strikeforce kingpin Daniel Cormier faces after finishing off the promotion's Grand Prix.

The eight-man tournament featured a large percentage of Strikeforce's heavyweight roster, with still more of its big fellas, Cormier included, rounding out the injury-replacement bracket of the competition.

With the Grand Prix firmly in the rear-view mirror, nearly all of its entrants, as well as the few outsiders left out, have migrated to other promotions. The only two guys left in the stable are Cormier and finalist Josh Barnett.

The complete absence of options has forced Cormier to look outside of Strikeforce for his next bout and the recently crowned champ has not been shy about dropping a name here or there.

As previously reported by mmafighting.com, Cormier feels that a fight between him and Shane Carwin would be a good thing. Says Cormier:

"

I think if there is a plus one and Zuffa's going to send someone over it is going to have to be someone that is very good you know? Maybe Shane Carwin, as he's coming back. He's a guy with a lot of name value and I don't necessarily know if that's a step up (from Josh Barnett) but that is somebody with name value.

"

Here, we will examine this hypothetical contest and see how this fight might go down, should it become a reality in the not too distant future.

Either fighter will be assigned a slight, moderate, significant or extreme advantage for each area of the game that is analyzed.

Striking/Chin

Shane Carwin

Injuries and consecutive losses have removed some of the mystique that once shrouded Shane Carwin, but he remains a very powerful striker. 

Though his striking arsenal is limited in terms of diversity, he punches with the strength of three men. This means, as long as he can preserve his strength and endurance, he is a legitimate threat to end any opponent's night in the blink of an eye.

Oh, and if you have any questions about Carwin's chin, watch his fight against Junior Dos Santos. 

Daniel Cormier

Cormier is not known for being a prolific striker, but he has exhibited some real competence in this area of the game at different times throughout his career. Most recently, he showed us all that he is to be taken seriously on the feet when he floored Antonio Silva last September.

Like Carwin, Cormier's repertoire is somewhat limited, though he has shown a willingness to throw some leg kicks in the past.

There is no reason to suspect Cormier's chin is a weakness for him. Perhaps it has yet to have been tested to the degree that Carwin's has, but it has not let him down to date.

Advantage Carwin (Moderate)

While Cormier's striking is coming along at a nice pace, this is still Carwin's area of expertise. The only guy who has ever out-struck the Engineer is current UFC heavyweight champion Junior Dos Santos, and there is certainly no shame in that.

One could make the argument that Cormier is a more technical puncher than Carwin, but at the end of the day, the likelihood of Carwin finishing this bout on the feet is much higher than the likelihood of Cromier ending Carwin's night in the same fashion.

Takedown/Takedown Defense

Shane Carwin

Carwin comes from a wrestling background, but in 14 career fights he has not exhibited this trait all that often—a by-product, I suppose, of maintaining a minuscule average length of fight time.

Still, in those fleeting moments when he has needed to stuff a shot, Carwin has proved himself competent. He rarely attempts to take the fight to the mat on his own accord and there is little reason to think this would change in a bout against Daniel Cormier.

Daniel Cormier

Carwin is a competent wrestler, but there is competent, and there is elite. Cormier belongs in the latter category.

A former Olympic team captain for the United States, Cormier is arguably the heavyweight division's most effective wrestler. Though his striking is steadily improving and he likes to show this off, his bread and butter will always be taking his opponents down and beating them up.

Advantage Cormier (Significant)

It is difficult to imagine Shane Carwin consistently stuffing Cormier's takedowns or putting Cormier on his back. This is especially true since Carwin fights aggressively, sometimes exposing himself to counter strikes and takedown opportunities.

Carwin would have to play it very cautious to avoid the ground with Cormier. Even then, whether or not it went there would still be Cormier's choice to make.

Ground Control and Transitions

Shane Carwin

Carwin is a big powerful guy and it is logical to think that he could control an opponent on the mat. The only thing is, the one time he has entered the grappling realm during his UFC tenure ended with a submission loss. To Brock Lesnar.

Granted, the Lesnar incident can be chalked up to fatigue more than skill, but Carwin has done little else to convince anyone that he is an effective grappler.

Daniel Cormier

Did I mentioned that this guy was an Olympic wrestler?

Cormier has terrific top control, which he uses to maintain position and work the ground and pound. It is also difficult to imagine anyone in MMA keeping him on his back for any significant length of time.

Advantage Cormier (Significant)

Like takedowns and takedown defense, this one lies firmly on the side of the Strikeforce champion. 

With a bevy of examples that speak to his proficiency, Cormier is a tough one to shake on the mat. Carwin, on the other hand, has provided us with little material, save for the floundering effort against Brock Lesnar, to gauge his grappling prowess.

Submissions/Submission Defense

Shane Carwin

Before arriving in the UFC, Carwin actually served up a handful of choke submissions. This is not to say that he is a submission threat to any top heavyweight competitor, but anyone who points to Cromier's three submission wins must also acknowledge that Carwin has five of his own (one from strikes).

Since the Lesnar loss, Carwin's submission defense appears to leave something to be desired, though succumbing to the arm-triangle in that fight was largely attributable to exhaustion.

Daniel Cormier

Cormier, while an advanced level grappler, is not much of a submission threat on the mat. He owns three submission wins in his career, but two of those were the result of strikes.

Cormier's submission defense has looked tight throughout his career. 

Advantage Cormier (Moderate)

While neither guy is super threatening when it comes to submissions, Cormier's defense is better than Carwin's. 

What this comes down to is that Cormier could conceivably submit Carwin, while the inverse is more flippant fancy than reality.

Stamina

Shane Carwin

Carwin's cardio looked horrible in the Lesnar fight, but he was able to take Junior Dos Santos to the third bell, incurring severe damage along the way.

Many people will rightfully point to Carwin's endurance as a weakness, but some of the criticism may be a tad overblown.

Daniel Cormier

While he may not look like the most fit guy in MMA, Cormier has a big gas tank. He exemplified this by hurling Josh Barnett through air in the waning minutes of their five-round May showdown.

Besides, you don't make the Olympic team as a wrestler if you gas quickly.

Advantage Cormier (Significant)

Cain Velasquez gets credit for being the most in-shape heavyweight in mixed martial arts, but Cormier could make a case for being the best of the rest.

We know that Carwin can go three rounds, but the single time he did that was more boxing than anything else, and a fight with Cormier can be a real grind.

If anyone tires in this fight it would be Carwin, not Cormier.

The Bottom Line

When beginning this assessment, I anticipated drawing indecisive conclusions for two competitors I previously considered to be evenly matched.

But after going through the various blanket categories of MMA that define this comparison, it seems, to my surprise, that I strongly favor Cormier.

Aside from striking, the former Olympian sweeps the board, with most areas of the game being separated by a significant margin. 

Carwin does have serious power and that always factors into a fight. One-punch knockout capability is a true equalizer.

But the chances of a flash knockout aside, a holistic analysis of the fight suggests that Cormier would use Carwin as a stepping stone towards a showdown with JDS for the UFC heavyweight crown. His combination of striking, wrestling, ground control and stamina make him a formidable opponent for anyone, and few fighters are enjoying the type of momentum Cormier currently has.

For a final prediction, I'll say that Cormier would likely control this fight. How long Carwin could stay strong would ultimately determine whether Cormier wins by stoppage or decision.

But Cormier would win.