2012 NHL Mock Draft: Nail Yakupov and Safest Picks on the Board

In the NHL Draft, teams are always looking for a home run selection that will become their next superstar, but sometimes the best pick is the one that is the most obvious. There is no sense in taking unnecessary risks, especially because a bad pick early in the draft can set a franchise back years or, perhaps, even a decade.

It is incumbent on every general manager to do his due diligence and come up with a selection that has the best chance of paying off in the long run. There are a ton of highly-rated prospects with very uncertain futures in this year's draft, but there are still a few who seem like pretty sure things at the next level.

Along with a full, first round mock draft, here is some further analysis on the safest picks in the draft that will pay big dividends to whoever selects them.

1. Edmonton Oilers - Nail Yakupov, F, Sarnia

Unlike most professional sports drafts, over the past several seasons the NHL draft has often produced a top player who has been the clear No. 1 choice. That is the case once again this year as Sarnia Sting forward Nail Yakupov is the consensus top pick. Yakupov has been looked at as the best player in the draft since the beginning of the NHL season, and nothing has changed between then and now.

There is some concern that because Yakupov is Russian, he might bolt for the KHL if things don't go well for him immediately. That is understandable since many promising Russian prospects have done that over the past several years. Yakupov never even played in the KHL, though, and has been in North America for quite a while, so that shouldn't be much of a consideration at this point.

At 5'10" and 170 lbs, he is a bit small, but there is still some time for him to grow. Even with the NHL regressing towards big, hulking players, though, there are several players on the smaller side who continue to excel. As long as a player has great offensive skill, he has a chance to succeed. And Yakupov has a boatload of skill.

2. Columbus Blue Jackets - Mikhail Grigorenko, F, Quebec

Yakupov may be the surest thing in the draft, but Grigorenko may the biggest enigma. Even though Columbus has had bad luck with Russians in the past, they'll gamble on this one's immense talent.

3. Montreal Canadiens -  Filip Forsberg, F, Leksands

Aside from North American players, the safest picks in the NHL draft in recent years have been Swedes. When the Detroit Red Wings won the Stanley Cup a few years ago with Swedish players leading the way, it became en vogue to select Swedes. That is still the case, and the best Swedish player in this year's draft is unquestionably forward Filip Forsberg of Leksands.

At 6'1" and 176 lbs, Forsberg has good size, but he can also skate like the wind and has excellent hands. He has made great strides in the Swedish league and has really risen in the ranks over the past couple months.

Forsberg truly has it all, and it is difficult to see him failing in the NHL. Even if he doesn't become a perennial All-Star, Forsberg should be a guy who pots 20-25 goals consistently, and that makes him very valuable in today's NHL.

The Montreal Canadiens need a guy who can come in and contribute right away but is also viable for the long haul. Forsberg appears to be precisely that, and he would be the perfect selection for a team like the Habs as they are attempting to emerge from a very stagnant period in the franchise's history.

4. New York Islanders - Ryan Murray, D, Everett

Murray is arguably the top offensive defenseman in the draft, and he would be an excellent fit with the Islanders due to talented forwards like John Tavares and Matt Moulson up front.

5. Toronto Maple Leafs -  Alex Galchenyuk, F, Sarnia

It's possible that Galchenyuk is the most talented player in the draft, but a knee injury drops him to No. 5 and gives the floundering Maple Leafs a boom-or-bust selection.

6. Anaheim Ducks - Mathew Dumba, D, Red Deer

There has been plenty of discussion regarding who the best defenseman in this year's draft is, but taking all skills into consideration, it seems quite clear that Red Deer Rebels rearguard Mathew Dumba is the total package.

Not only is Dumba an excellent skater with elite offensive skills, but he is also very good defensively and may be the best body checker in the class.

One comparison that many have made regarding Dumba is to Toronto Maple Leafs defenseman Dion Phaneuf. While Phaneuf has fallen off in recent years compared to what he once was, he was possibly the best blueliner in the league for a while with the Calgary Flames, so that is pretty high praise for Dumba.

The Anaheim Ducks have a ton of talent up front and probably shouldn't be picking this high in the draft. The 2011-12 season was a major disappointment, however, so they have a chance to get an impact player. Anaheim's defensive corps left a lot to be desired and was a big reason for the team's failure. Dumba can do a little bit of everything though, and  he will be an instant upgrade for the Ducks.

7. Minnesota Wild - Morgan Rielly, D, Moose Jaw

The Wild have a couple intriguing forwards coming through the pipeline, but they could use a dynamite puck mover on the back end such as Rielly.

8. Carolina Hurricanes - Radek Faksa, F, Kitchener

Carolina is lacking up front aside from Eric Staal and Jeff Skinner, and while Faksa won't be ready immediately, he could be the top-six forward they desperately need.

9. Winnipeg Jets - Jacob Trouba, D, USA U-18

Trouba has been rising up draft boards recently as he excels in all areas of the game, and the Jets would be happy to nab him as they continue to mold their system.

10. Tampa Bay Lightning - Griffin Reinhart, D, Edmonton

Reinhart has become a bit of a forgotten man in a draft stacked with quality defenseman, but he will be a great addition to the Lightning as they are in the midst of a defensive overhaul.

11. Washington Capitals (from COL) - Teuvo Teravainen, F, Jokerit

Teravainen appears to have a varied skill set that should play well in the NHL, and the Capitals won't hesitate to grab him as they gravitate toward European players.

12. Buffalo Sabres -  Brendan Gaunce, F, Belleville

The Sabres have had a paradigm shift in their drafting strategy as they have taken bigger forwards over the past few years. Gaunce will be another example.

13. Dallas Stars - Cody Ceci, D, Ottawa

In most years, it's possible that Ceci would be a top 10 pick, but with so many great defenseman on the board, he'll fall to the Stars in what could be a steal.

14. Calgary Flames - Olli Maatta, D, London

Maatta absolutely dominated in the OHL playoffs, and that put him on a lot of teams' radars, particularly the Flames, who could use a good offensive defender.

15. Ottawa Senators - Sebastian Collberg, F, Frolunda HC

With Swedish defenseman Erik Karlsson playing so well in Ottawa, the Senators will look to Tre Kronor again as they select Collberg.

16. Washington Capitals - Matt Finn, D, Guelph

The Caps already nabbed a promising forward in Teravainen with their first pick, so they'll take a developmental defenseman with a lot of potential in the form of Finn.

 17. San Jose Sharks - Ludvig Bystrom, D, Modo

San Jose has pretty much squandered its chance to win the Stanley Cup any time soon, so now is the time to build the prospect pool with a defenseman like Bystrom.

18. Chicago Blackhawks - Zemgus Girgensons, F, Dubuque

The Blackhawks disappointed this season, but they have a lot of developing stars at forward, and Girgensons would be yet another to add to the mix.

19. Tampa Bay Lightning (from DET) - Malcolm Subban, G, Belleville

Dwayne Roloson and Mathieu Garon aren't getting the job done in goal, and Dustin Tokarski isn't the long-term answer. The Lightning need a netminder like Subban.

20. Philadelphia Flyers - Derrick Pouliot, D, Portland

The Flyers have plenty of firepower up front but defense and goaltending have been the real issue, and that makes Pouliot a logical selection at this point.

21. Buffalo Sabres (from NAS) -  Pontus Aberg, F, Djurgardens

The Sabres already took a forward earlier in the draft, but with their defensive pipeline stacked, they would be wise to take the Swede.

22. Pittsburgh Penguins - Hampus Lindholm, D, Rogle

Pittsburgh was decimated in the first round of the playoffs by the Flyers' forwards. They absolutely must get some quality defensemen such as Lindholm into the system.

23. Florida Panthers -  Stefan Matteau, F, USNTDP

The Panthers underwent a successful transformation in one season under general manager Dale Tallon, and they will add another promising forward in Matteau.

24. Boston Bruins - Brady Skjei, D, USA U-18

Boston's minor league system is nothing to write home about, so it's important that this pick is a success. Skjei looks like a good bet on defense.

25. St. Louis Blues - Nicolas Kerdiles, F, USA U-18

The Blues aren't going to be a real Stanley Cup contender without more offense, so they'll hope that Kerdiles realizes his potential and becomes an offensive dynamo.

26. Vancouver Canucks - Slater Koekkoek, D, Peterborough

Vancouver continued to fall short of expectations this season, and while Koekkoek won't contribute for a while, he is the type of honest hockey player that the Canucks need.

 27. Phoenix Coyotes -  Tomas Hertl, F, Slavia

The Coyotes really love their Czech forwards like Radim Vrbata and Martin Hanzal, and Hertl would be another quality Czech added to the mix.

28. New York Rangers - Scott Laughton, F, Oshawa

The Rangers don't really need anything in particular as their system is stacked, so they'll take Laughton and hope that he becomes a contributor down the line.

29. New Jersey Devils - Tom Wilson, F, Plymouth

Regardless of what happens in the Stanley Cup Finals, the Devils need to add some forward depth with Zach Parise likely leaving, so Wilson is the pick.

30. Los Angeles Kings - Dalton Thrower, D, Saskatoon

It took a while for everything to come together for the Kings, but they have become a complete team. They have the luxury of taking the best player on the board in Thrower. 

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