Tennessee Titans' Advanced Stat of the Week: Breaking Down the '99 Titans

This week, Advanced Stat of the Week will look at some of the great teams in the history of the franchises that make up the AFC South.

The 1999 Tennessee Titans came up a yard short of immortality. They were a good team, but also a lucky one. Most importantly, they absolutely had the number of the '99 Jacksonville Jaguars.

While no one will ever forget the Music City Miracle, the '99 Titans were merely keeping up with a season-long theme of good breaks. Their Pythagorean record was only 9.8-6.2, meaning they overachieved by a stunning three games.

None of their DVOA stats indicated that they should have been a yard away from forcing overtime in the Super Bowl. They were just 20th on defense, but they were an elite offensive unit. The Titans had the third-best offense in football in 1999.

Much of that was due to an unconventional passing game. Steve McNair and Mark Brunell were statistical twins, but the Titans also picked up four wins thanks to the play of Neil O'Donnell. Combined, McNair and O'Donnell posted a NY/A number of 6.3, good for seventh in football.

They leaned heavily on their tight ends, and Jackie Harris posted the second-highest catch rate among tight ends at 76 percent.

Eddie George, one of the most overrated backs in NFL history, was his typical plodding self, but he did manage to post a success rate of 48 percent, which was good for eighth in the league.

The real question is how this team managed to beat the Jaguars in three straight games.

The answer comes in the form of an advanced stat we haven't covered yet: fumble luck. The Titans forced 13 turnovers in three games against the Jags, and that was par for the course. They finished the year fourth in total turnovers forced and were first in forced fumbles, with 39 on the year.

Fumble luck says that teams recover about half of the fumbles they force. Forcing fumbles is a skill, but recovering them is random or lucky. A good chunk of that "luck" comes from the fact that the Titans should have recovered 19 or 20 fumbles, but they managed to recover 24 on the season.

That four to five fumble difference easily accounts for the extra wins the Titans posted. They played seven games decided by three points or less and went 7-1 in those games.

Specifically against the Jaguars, they forced five Jaguars fumbles and recovered four of them in the playoff game. Had a couple of those balls bounced the other way, the outcome could have been very different.

Saying the 1999 Titans were a "lucky" team doesn't mean they weren't great. It doesn't mean they didn't take advantage of the breaks they got. It doesn't mean they didn't "deserve" to win.

All it means is that when presented with opportunities, they capitalized. They were greater than the sum of their parts and took their season as far as it could go.

They took it all the way to the 1-yard line.