Boilermaker Breakdown (@Ohio State - Feb. 3)

Ohio State 80, Purdue 72 (OT)

The success of this Boilermaker basketball season may hinge on the L5 vertebrate of Robbie Hummel.

That vertebrate contains a hairline fracture that is limiting Purdue’s best player and as in the case of the Ohio State and Penn State games, keeping him on the bench.

Those two games are Purdue’s only road losses of the season—Penn State by three and Ohio State by eight in overtime.

The Boilers missed Hummel’s 12.9 points per game and definitely missed his 7.5 rebounds a game.

Most importantly, they missed his defense, as the Buckeyes shot an astounding 60.4 percent from the floor against a team that led the nation in field goal percentage defense (36 percent) coming into the game.

Let’s jump into the breakdown:

What the Boilers did well:

·    Inside the Arc Shooting – Purdue was 20 of 34 from inside the arc – good for nearly 59 percent.  They also only missed three of their 17 free throws. Much of this was due to the play of JaJuan Johnson, but overall the Boilers did well from close range.

·    Turnover Margin – Purdue forced 19 turnovers and only gave it up 12 times. Usually if the Boilers come out on the positive side of this statistic, they win the game.

Where the Boilers struggled:

·    Three-Point Shooting – As good as the Boilers were from inside the arc, they were that bad outside of it. They made only 6-of-21 threes.

     Coach Painter’s “less is more” strategy had worked the last few games as they were taking fewer threes but making just as many. Against the Buckeyes, Keaton Grant took more threes (12) than Ohio State as a team (11) yet he made one fewer (five to six). They just need to probe the defense a bit more before settling for a three with a hand in their face.

·    Defense – Not much to say here other than Ohio State shot 60 percent from the floor against the national leader in field goal percentage defense coming into the game. B.J. Mullens had about seven of the easiest imaginable dunks in the game. They did make some unbelievable shots, but this is still unacceptable. 

·    Rebounding – What a dominant team Purdue could be if they could just hold their own on the glass. The rebounding margin was 34-18.  The Buckeyes almost doubled up Purdue in this category.  This is really where Purdue lost the game. They gained seven possessions in the turnover margin, but lost 16 possessions from rebounding.  It is really amazing this game still went into overtime with Purdue giving its opponent nine more possessions when they shot 60 percent from the floor.

Player of the Game

JaJuan Johnson.

The sophomore probably has just about wrapped up the most improved player award for the Big Ten. His 30 points were a career high and season high for anyone on the team this year. He made 10-of-16 shots and was 10-of-11 from the stripe.

In conference games only, Johnson ranks ninth in scoring, fifth in rebounding, third in field goal percentage, and first in blocks. However, he only pulled down four rebounds against the Bucks and had no blocks.

Questions for the Future

It says a lot about this Purdue team that Ohio State shot 60 percent and out-rebounded them by 16 and the Boilers still had a chance to win it at the end. Purdue played only seven players and each of the starters played at least 35 minutes.

If the game was in Mackey, perhaps Lewis Jackson gets a call on that last shot of regulation. Regardless, you don’t deserve to win when allowing your opponent to shoot at such an astounding clip.

As mentioned above, Robbie Hummel gives this team such a better chance to win when he is on the floor.  I believe Purdue would have won at Ohio State and Penn State if he was healthy and playing. It’s conceivable that Purdue could even be undefeated in the conference with a fully healthy Hummel, as he was playing injured in the overtime loss to Illinois.

So the main question for Purdue is can Hummel get healthy – and quickly. Perhaps the seven full days of rest he will get between the Michigan and Illinois games will be enough to help him heal. Maybe Painter is going to wait longer and save Hummel for a tourney run in March. However, if the Boilers have aspirations of a regular season title, they need him back soon.

Where They Stand

Purdue is now a game-and-a-half back of Michigan State in the standings. They are tied with Illinois and Penn state for second at 6-3, though they lost once to both of those teams. It is very crowded at the top though as Minnesota and Ohio State are just a half game back of Purdue.

Up Next and Prediction

Purdue faces an Illinois team on Sunday that already beat them at home in overtime. That game could have been wrapped up by the Boilers in regulation if JaJuan Johnson could have made one more free throw at the end.

Illinois is undefeated at home in conference play, and their crowd will be loud in this one.  Last week they scored an embarrassing 36 points at Minnesota, but righted the ship against Iowa at home on Sunday. 

Purdue had Hummel in the home loss to Illinois, and he is much more doubtful for this game.  As a Purdue fan I am very nervous about this one, and don’t really see the Boilers pulling it off with Robbie hurting.  I hope I’m wrong, but I’m calling Purdue’s fourth overtime loss of the season.

Prediction: Illinois 68 – Purdue 64 OT