NBA Playoffs 2012: Why Spurs Will Fall Right into Thunder's Trap
Although the San Antonio Spurs have yet to lose a single game this postseason, they will exit the 2012 Western Conference finals with four of them, all to the No. 2-seeded Oklahoma City Thunder.
The Thunder's trap is set and the Spurs are about to fall right into it.
Unlike San Antonio Spurs teams of old, Gregg Popovich's 2011-12 team is more offensive-minded and less likely to win because of their defense. Quite frankly, if the Spurs hope to get into a shootout with the Thunder, they are sure to regret it.
The Spurs rank 11th out of the 16 total playoff teams in postseason rebounding differential (-1.25). San Antonio also ranks ninth and 12th in steal (-0.75) and blocked-shot differential (-1.62) among the 16 playoff teams. The bottom line, their defense is slightly below average when stacked against the rest of the units remaining in the playoffs.
The Boston Celtics, Miami Heat and Philadelphia 76ers had all held their playoff opponents to less than 88 points per game on average this postseason coming into Saturday night. The Spurs have allowed 88.75 points per game in eight playoff games this spring.
Sure, how can you argue with 8-0 and allowing less than 89 points per game? Also consider that Miami, Oklahoma City and Boston all allow a lower field-goal percentage on average in the playoffs than the Spurs, who allow 42.3 percent shooting in the 2012 playoffs.
Though most would argue that San Antonio's +13.75 scoring differential demands to be respected, consider that the padded statistic came via eight games versus the Utah Jazz and Los Angeles Clippers. Neither one of those teams averaged more than 91 points per game during their short postseason stays.
OKC is the second-highest scoring offense (100 PPG) in the playoffs behind San Antonio (102.5 PPG), and the second-best shooting team (46.5 FG%) in the postseason behind the Spurs (49.1 FG%). Perhaps on the surface it appears that the Spurs offense has shined brighter thus far this postseason, but in reality, their superb production has come against two of the worst defenses in the playoffs.
The question is not only how well San Antonio can slow the Thunder's Big Three of Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook and James Harden, but also whether they can keep up their strong offensive pace with such a large rotation of players. Popovich has been using almost every one of his bench players this postseason and will likely need to call upon his starters for more minutes in this coming series.
The wear and tear of a Western Conference finals series against a championship-caliber team like the Thunder will easily demand more intensity than the playoffs' first two rounds combined. So the longer the series goes, the more it favors the young legs of OKC. Tim Duncan is 36, Manu Ginobili is 34 and Tony Parker is 30. Not one member of the Thunder's Big Three is older than 23.
Oklahoma City's trap is set for San Antonio. The Spurs have put together a solid postseason thus far, winning eight of eight, but they have yet to play the Thunder once. This series will be an entertaining one, but OKC has disposed of the last two NBA champions already. Why not another?
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