Eastern Conference Finals 2012: Predicting Miami's Chances to Make NBA Finals

After finally getting past the pesky Indiana Pacers in Game 6 on Thursday, the Miami Heat have vaulted into the 2012 Eastern Conference finals. Now, they must patiently await and vanquish the winner of the Philadelphia 76ers and Boston Celtics series to make a return trip to the NBA Finals.

That is much easier said than done, so let’s take a look at what the Heat need to do and their chances to make the finals against each potential opponent.

Boston Celtics

The Heat and C’s split their season series at two games apiece, with Boston claiming the latter two and potentially having the momentum going into this matchup.

Here is how they compare to one another by position if the ECF were to start today.

Neither team possesses a strong center, effectively negating the 5, and it’s unlikely that Greg Stiemsma or Joel Anthony will impact any games.

Boston has the edge at the 4, with Kevin Garnett a much better option than Udonis Haslem. With Chris Bosh out, the Celtics are going to try to attack down low with KG as often as possible.

Paul Pierce is one of the few players in the league that has found success guarding LeBron James and often brings his A-game when facing the league MVP. It should be a back-and-forth scoring battle between these two, but the King has the edge.

Miami has a distinct advantage at the 2, with Dwyane Wade playing some of his best basketball over the past week against Indiana. Ray Allen has been hobbled and ineffective, while Avery Bradley is likely to miss the remainder of the playoffs.

Rajon Rondo is a much better point guard option than anyone the Heat employ, but they will dare him to shoot and crowd the lane to stop penetration. That strategy worked to great effect last year, but Rondo has since become an even better passer.

If this matchup happens, it’s likely going to be an epic seven-game battle with Miami having a slight advantage.

Heat’s chance of advancing: 65 percent.

Philadelphia 76ers

Philly was swept over its four-game series during the 2011-12 campaign against South Beach.

The Sixers simply have not played well enough to prove they could do much more than steal a game, even when their season is on the line.

The 76ers are a good team, but they lack a go-to superstar in the clutch and have not been able to address that since these teams last met in the postseason in 2011.

Until they get an alpha-dog scorer who can break down his defender off the dribble and hit crunch-time shots, the 76ers are no threat at all to beat Miami.

Heat’s chance of advancing: 95 percent.