Notre Dame Football: The One Must-Win in the 2012 Season

The phrase “must-win game” is one of the most frequently used cliches in sports.

It’s often applicable in a best-of-seven series in the NFL, NHL or Major League Baseball, but in college football it’s not quite as transparent as to what constitutes a true must-win game.

At most schools, there are conference titles for which to compete for even after an early loss or two knocks them out of the national title picture. At Notre Dame, as an independent, it’s national title or bust.

Yes, a BCS bowl bid is always nice, but it’s a subjective honor based more on appeal than merit.

Brian Kelly may very well have the Irish contending for national championships during his time in South Bend, but it won’t happen in 2012. With one of its most challenging schedules in recent memory, Notre Dame will likely be out of the national title picture by midseason.

Beating USC in the Coliseum for a second straight time would be a major achievement, and handing Bob Stoops only his third home loss at Oklahoma would certainly be worth a celebration. Even a win at Michigan State would help exorcise the demons of a devastating overtime loss two years ago at Spartan Stadium.

However, there's only one game on the 2012 schedule that Notre Dame absolutely can’t afford to lose: September 22, when Michigan makes it biennial pilgrimage to Notre Dame Stadium.

The rivalry between the Irish and Wolverines is one of the most storied in the sport, with Michigan ranked No. 1 in all-time wins and Notre Dame not far behind at No. 3. The teams have been evenly matched since renewing their rivalry in the early 1980s, including splitting 12 meetings between 1993 and 2008.

Each of the last three games, however, has gone the way of the maize and blue, thanks to go-ahead touchdowns in the final 30 seconds of all three games.

Michigan was thought to be in rebuilding mode upon the hiring of Brady Hoke prior to the 2011 season, but the program used the momentum gained from its dramatic 35-31 over the Irish last season to springboard to an 11-2 season culminating with a BCS bowl victory.

More importantly, perhaps, are the 18 verbal commitments the Wolverines have received from members of the 2013 class, currently ranked the No. 1 class in the country by most major recruiting services.

Six of those commitments were in Michigan Stadium that night last September, including Alliance,
Ohio DB Dymonte Thomas, who pledged to the Wolverines the following day.

Thomas also held an offer from Notre Dame.

While the Irish’s recruiting efforts for the 2013 class offer little to complain about at the moment, they could be even better had they held on in Ann Arbor and made a BCS run of their own last season.

With a plethora of talent in the Midwest in the class, there are uncommitted prospects with offers from both schools who will have their eye on what takes place in South Bend in late September.

The visitor list for last season’s showcase game against USC was lengthy, one of the best groups of prospects ever to assemble on Notre Dame’s campus on a single weekend. Of all the non-committed prospects in attendance that night from the 2012 class, only one ended up signing with Notre Dame (RB KeiVarae Russell).

Did the 31-17 loss to the Trojans sway many of the undecided prospects? We’ll never know for sure, but a better showing could only have helped Notre Dame’s odds to win many of the recruiting battles in which it eventually came up short.

Although Notre Dame rallied to win seven of nine last season after one of the most heartbreaking losses in program history, this year’s schedule does not ease up like last year’s did.

Following Michigan, the Irish have consecutive games with Miami (FL), Stanford, BYU and Oklahoma. Notre Dame cannot afford a fragile psyche that could arise from a fourth straight loss to the Wolverines heading into that October stretch.

Brian Kelly doesn’t need to make a BCS bowl this year to satisfy his doubters, but it's critical to at least improve over 2010 and 2011 and get to 9-4. Without a win over Michigan, reaching nine wins will be a difficult task.

It’s always a highly emotional game, but after winning the first 59.5 minutes each of the past three years and coming up short all three times, we should see Notre Dame’s fire at a new level under the lights of Notre Dame Stadium.

A win would not only help Notre Dame in the 2012 season, but perhaps in the 2013, 2014 and 2015 seasons, too, with the momentum that could arise from a win over a team that it so frequently battles on the recruiting trail.

A loss would set the Irish further back in reaching their goals for both 2012 and seasons to follow. It would also make the senior class the first in Notre Dame history to lose four games to Michigan.

If that doesn’t define a must-win game, then I don’t know what does.