Projecting How Many Years the San Antonio Spurs Can Maintain Championship Level

The San Antonio Spurs are four wins away from heading back to the NBA finals for the first time since 2007, and at the moment it looks as if the dynastic franchise will maintain championship level for at least another five years.

San Antonio has looked far and away the favorite this postseason, disposing of the Utah Jazz and Los Angeles Clippers in eight games combined, winning each game in convincing fashion. 

You have to go all the way back to April 11 to find the Spurs' last loss. San Antonio has won 18 straight games over the past month and a half, winning each game by an average of more than 15 points. 

Despite their recent dominance though, these Spurs may not be built to maintain a championship level for much longer.

The Future of the Big Three

The combined age of Tony Parker, Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobili—San Antonio's Big Three—is 100. The oldest of the Big Three, Duncan is 36 and scheduled to become a free agent at season's end.  

Parker is set to make $12.5 million in each of the next three seasons with the Spurs, and is coming off arguably his best year as a pro. Parker led San Antonio with 18.3 PPG and 7.7 APG during the regular season. The 30-year-old floor general also shot 48 percent from the field and 80 percent from the foul line.

Thirty-four-year-old sixth man Manu Ginobili will turn 35 this July, but won't become a free agent until after the 2012-13 season. The Argentinian only played in 34 games this past regular season with the Spurs, but shot better than 52 percent from the floor and nearly 42 percent from beyond the arc. 

What It Means

Whether Duncan re-signs with San Antonio is a huge factor in determining how much longer the Spurs can contend. All indications point to Duncan playing out his career with the franchise that drafted him in 1997, but either way the Big Fundamental is a lot closer to retirement than fans realize.

Parker will certainly be the star that bridges the gap from one era to the other in San Antonio, but in five or six years Parker's style of physical style of play will have taken its toll on his body, and he will eventually have to rely more on his shot as he loses his quickness. It seems Parker may be the piece that keeps the Spurs in playoff contention over the next five to six seasons, because sooner or later the Spurs must face life without Duncan. 

Meanwhile Ginobili has dealt with a number of nagging injuries over the past few seasons in San Antonio, which leads us to wonder how much longer he can continue to excel while playing such an aggressive style of basketball. Also, how much longer can Gregg Popovich afford to bring a talent like Ginobili off the bench?

Outcome and Projection

Popovich has done a remarkable job transforming college stars like DeJuan Blair, Gary Neal and Danny Green into dependable NBA role players, but in the end it will be Ginobili, Parker and Duncan who lead the Spurs to the promise land. Replacing that experience and, in Duncan's case, once in a generation talent and ability is not without its consequences. 

The future of the San Antonio Spurs will be depend entirely on the future of the Big Three. Within the next five to six seasons, Duncan will be retired, Ginobili will have surpassed age 40 and Parker will have gone from experienced to old and much too past his prime to lead a Tim Duncan-less team to the finals. 

The Spurs have earned their respect, and it would be anything but respectful to say their championship window is closed after this season. But at the same time, to say they will be playing into June for the next decade would be foolish. 

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