2012 NHL Mock Draft: Breaking Down Elite Prospects with Biggest Bust Potential

For the past several years, the No. 1 overall pick in the NHL draft has essentially been a slam dunk. In the past 11 drafts, 10 of the top picks appear to be slam-dunk superstars, while the other is a solid defenseman in Colorado Avalanche rearguard Erik Johnson.

For as automatic as the top pick is, though, things are equally cloudy thereafter.

There is no doubt that Russian forward Nail Yakupov is the top prospect in this year's draft, but there is a ton of uncertainty elsewhere in the first round. The top five could go a number of different ways and there is undoubtedly a strong possibility that more than one team will misstep when it comes to their selections.

Along with a full first-round mock draft, here is some analysis on the top prospects that are most likely to be busts at the NHL level.

1. Edmonton Oilers - Nail Yakupov, F, Sarnia

There is no denying that Yakupov is the most skilled and consistent player available, so the Oilers won't hesitate to team him with former No. 1 picks Taylor Hall and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins.

2. Columbus Blue Jackets - Mikhail Grigorenko, F, Quebec

It isn't uncommon for scouts to have differing opinions on players during the draft process, but it isn't often that talent evaluators are split right down the middle. That appears to be the case with Quebec Remparts center Mikhail Grigorenko, however. The 6'3", 200-lb. Russian star is big and skilled and has drawn comparisons to Evgeni Malkin, but there are concerns as well.

As is the case with many Russian players, there is a thought that Grigorenko lacks drive and that he may not be willing to do the dirty work necessary to put himself in good scoring positions. Also, since he has only played one year in North America, there is always a chance that he could bolt the NHL for a big contract in the KHL if things don't work out immediately.

With the way that Alexander Ovechkin and Alexander Semin have fallen out of favor with the Washington Capitals, teams are more wary than ever of Russian players. If Grigorenko is committed to the NHL, then he can be a star, but I'm not sure I would be willing to take that risk as a general manager.

3. Montreal Canadiens -  Filip Forsberg, F, Leksands

A late riser up draft boards, Forsberg is still growing into his 6'1" frame and has displayed lightning quickness and great hands, so the Habs would love to nab him here.

4. New York Islanders - Ryan Murray, D, Everett

The Islanders' progression has been slow, but with good, young forwards like John Tavares, Matt Moulson and Michael Grabner, they'll take Murray as a stalwart on the blue line.

5. Toronto Maple Leafs -  Alex Galchenyuk, F, Sarnia

Like Grigorenko, Alex Galchenyuk of the Sarnia Sting is a huge gamble, but for very different reasons. Galchenyuk is a dynamic American player born to a Belarusian father who puts forth his best effort every time he steps on the ice. He was dominant as a rookie in the OHL as he and teammate Nail Yakupov tore up the league during the 2010-11 season.

The 2011-12 season was much tougher for Galchenyuk, though, as he tore his ACL in preseason and missed all but two games. It normally takes a while for an athlete to regain his explosion following an ACL injury, and sometimes it never happens at all. Galchenyuk has all the tools to succeed at the next level, but his injury history has to be disconcerting.

Even if Galchenyuk is a stud when he's on the ice, it won't help an NHL team if he can't stay healthy. The Toronto Maple Leafs desperately need to add some forward talent to help Phil Kessel, so they could easily bite the bullet and hope that Galchenyuk can get past the ACL tear, but another failed pick would set the Leafs back even further.

6. Anaheim Ducks - Mathew Dumba, D, Red Deer

While Ryan Murray is the best offensive defenseman in the draft, Dumba may be the most complete, so he will make a great addition to the Ducks roster.

7. Minnesota Wild - Morgan Rielly, D, Moose Jaw

The Wild have a couple good-looking forward prospects coming up through the system, so they would be wise to add some defensive depth by taking Rielly.

8. Carolina Hurricanes - Radek Faksa, F, Kitchener

It would be fair to say that Yakupov, Grigorenko, Forsberg and Galchenyuk are unquestionably the top four forwards in the draft in terms of talent level, but after that it becomes somewhat of a crap shoot.

Many consider Czech center Radek Faksa to be next on that list, though. It's easy to see why, as he has adjusted to the North American game quickly and is already 6'3" and nearly 200 lbs.

Faksa has the size to dominate physically if he so chooses, but we have seen European stars of his ilk who try to coast by on talent alone. Faksa has unfortunately shown some signs of that, so it gives teams reason to pause before potentially selecting him.

If he is that at No. 8, though, I have a hard time believing that the Carolina Hurricanes won't pounce on him. Aside from Eric Staal and Jeff Skinner, the Canes are quite short on talent at forward, meaning they'll be willing to hope that Faksa realizes his full potential.

Faksa can be a big-time, top-six forward, but he could just as easily be out of the league in a few years.

9. Winnipeg Jets - Jacob Trouba, D, USA U-18

The Jets are pretty set when it comes to forward talent coming through the pipeline, but the defensive depth is a bit thin, so Trouba is the sensible pick here.

10. Tampa Bay Lightning - Griffin Reinhart, D, Edmonton

Tampa Bay is one of the more offensively-talented teams in the league, but their defense corps leaves a lot to be desired, making Reinhart a good fit for them.

11. Washington Capitals (from COL) - Teuvo Teravainen, F, Jokerit

With Alexander Semin as good as gone, the Caps will have to replenish their skill at forward, and while Teravainen won't be in the NHL for a couple years, he has a lot of potential.

12. Buffalo Sabres -  Brendan Gaunce, F, Belleville

It took a long time to realize what to do, but the Sabres have finally started to draft skilled players with size and Gaunce will be yet another great addition to their growing crop of forward talent.

13. Dallas Stars - Cody Ceci, D, Ottawa

The Stars are quite the middling team right now, so while they won't be getting a superstar in Ceci, he is a guy that should be ready to contribute in a couple years.

14. Calgary Flames - Olli Maatta, D, London

Maatta broke the single-season record for playoff scoring by a defenseman in the OHL this season, and that is the kind of offensive production the Flames would love from a defender.

15. Ottawa Senators - Sebastian Collberg, F, Frolunda HC

The Sens have gone to the Swedish well on a number of occasions and have struck pay dirt with Daniel Alfredsson and Erik Karlsson, so they'll try their luck again with Collberg.

16. Washington Capitals - Matt Finn, D, Guelph

Washington will look for a little balance in this draft as they will take a solid defenseman in Finn after going with a Finn, in nationality of course, in the form of Teravainen earlier.

 17. San Jose Sharks - Ludvig Bystrom, D, Modo

The Sharks don't have much time left to contend, so they had better start building up their farm system now, beginning with a versatile Swedish defenseman in Bystrom.

18. Chicago Blackhawks - Zemgus Girgensons, F, Dubuque

Chicago already has a very nice stable of young forwards that are NHL ready, so they'll take a skilled Latvian in Girgensons to add even more talent to the pool.

19. Tampa Bay Lightning (from DET) - Malcolm Subban, G, Belleville

The Lightning have absolutely nothing in the pipeline at goaltender, so they will make no mistake by selecting Subban and hoping that he can become a stalwart between the pipes.

20. Philadelphia Flyers - Derrick Pouliot, D, Portland

With Chris Pronger perhaps the on the verge of retirement, the Flyers may have to dip into their defensive depth next season, but Pouliot can replenish it.

21. Buffalo Sabres (from NAS) -  Pontus Aberg, F, Djurgardens

The Sabres have largely stuck with North American players in recent years, but after taking Finn Joel Armia in the first round last year, they'll go with the Swede in Aberg this time.

22. Pittsburgh Penguins - Hampus Lindholm, D, Rogle

Pittsburgh's defense was exposed in a big way against the Philadelphia Flyers in this season's playoffs, so it would behoove the Pens to improve there with Lindholm.

23. Florida Panthers -  Stefan Matteau, F, USNTDP

The Panthers took a big step forward by making the playoffs this season and they have some talent waiting in the wings as well, so they'll add a tough, honest player in Matteau.

24. Boston Bruins - Brady Skjei, D, USA U-18

Boston doesn't have a lot of depth in the minor leagues in general, so they can afford to take the best player available here, and that appears to be Skjei.

25. St. Louis Blues - Nicolas Kerdiles, F, USA U-18

Strong defensive play took the Blues a long way this season, but you can only get so far without great scorers, so St. Louis will hope that Kerdiles reaches his fill potential.

26. Vancouver Canucks - Slater Koekkoek, D, Peterborough

It's tough to say what went wrong for the Canucks in the playoffs, but all they can do is put their heads down, push forward and add another talented player in Koekkoek.

 27. Phoenix Coyotes -  Tomas Hertl, F, Slavia

The Coyotes certainly like their Czech forwards, as they currently roster Radim Vrbata and Martin Hanzal. They'll nab another by taking Hertl at No. 27.

28. New Jersey Devils - Tom Wilson, F, Plymouth

It's basically impossible to replace forward Zach Parise should he depart from New Jersey during free agency, but Wilson has the ability to become a solid scorer at the next level.

 

29. New York Rangers - Scott Laughton, F, Oshawa

The Rangers are pretty stacked at every position in terms of prospect depth, so they might as well roll the dice by taking a high-upside offensive player in Laughton.

30. Columbus Blue Jackets (from L.A.) - Andrei Vasilevski, G, Ufa

Taking a Russian goaltender is obviously a risky endeavor, but the Blue Jackets' situation at that position is so dire that they'll pin their hopes on Vasilevski. 

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