NFL Stat Predictions: What Will It Take to Win NFL MVP in 2012?

The NFL's Most Valuable Player award has become a quarterback-driven accolade.

Since 1957—when the NFL started handing out the award—a quarterback has won the prestigious distinction 37 out of 54 possible seasons.

Seven QBs have won the award multiple times, while Jim Brown remains the only running back in NFL history to have won the MVP more than one time. 

Since 2000, three running backs have been awarded the MVP award while the other 10 seasons have seen the award won by quarterbacks.

With that being said, let's take a look at what it will take to win the MVP award at the major positions in 2012.

Running Back

Marshall Faulk, Shaun Alexander and LaDainian Tomlinson each won an MVP during the 2000s.

In 2000, Faulk rushed for 1,359 yards on 253 attempts and scored 18 rushing touchdowns while catching 81 balls for 830 yards and eight touchdowns out of the backfield. 

2005 and 2006 saw back-to-back MVPs go to running backs Shaun Alexander and LaDainian Tomlinson.

Alexander rushed for 1,880 yards and 27 touchdowns on 370 carries in 2005, tying the NFL record for single-season rushing touchdowns. 

The following season, Tomlinson broke the record for rushing touchdowns in a single season, rumbling his way to 28 TDs and 1,815 yards on 348 carries, while also grabbing 56 receptions for 508 yards and three touchdowns through the air. 

Given the two-headed monster rushing attacks that a lot of teams in the NFL feature today, it gets harder with each passing season for a running back to be the best player in the league.

In 2009, Tennessee Titans running back Chris Johnson surpassed the 2,000 yards mark (2,006) and scored 14 rushing TDs, but it wasn't good enough to stop Peyton Manning from winning his fourth MVP award.

Arian Foster led the NFL in yards (1,616) and TDs (16) in 2010, but couldn't compete with Tom Brady's MVP campaign.

In 2011, the NFL didn't have a running back that led the league in both rushing yards and touchdowns, and no one could compete with the season that Aaron Rodgers put together.

Prediction

With the inflated quarterback stats that we've seen over the course of the past few seasons, it's going to take a LaDainian Tomlinson-like performance to win the MVP award for a running back: 1,800-plus yards and 25 TDs.

Quarterback

Let's start with Aaron Rodgers, who won the hardware last season with 4,643 yards, 45 TDs, six interceptions and a 122.5 rating, while completing 68.3 percent of his passes.

Rodgers didn't lead the NFL in yardage, touchdowns or completion percentage, but he did throw the second-fewest interceptions for quarterbacks who attempted at least 400 passes and he was No. 1 in passer rating.

It was Drew Brees who led the league in passing yards (5,476), TDs (46) and completion percentage (71.2) while throwing 14 interceptions, which was good for a 110.6 rating.

When Tom Brady won the award in 2010, he led the NFL in TDs with 36 and threw just four picks, but ranked No. 8 in yards, with 3,900, No. 4 in completion percentage (65.9) and first in passer rating at 111.0.

In 2009, Peyton Manning collected his fourth MVP award despite not leading the NFL in yards, TDs, least interceptions thrown, completion percentage and passer rating. In fact, Manning's passer rating dipped below 100.0, yet he still won the award (4,500 yards, 33 TD, 16 INT, 68.8 completion percentage and 99.9 rating).

Prediction

2011 saw three quarterbacks throw for more than 5,000 yards and at least 39 TDs (Brees, Brady, and Matthew Stafford), but none of them won the MVP award. Aaron Rodgers had the best touchdown-to-interception ratio as well as the highest passer rating—categories voters clearly take into careful consideration. A line around 4,800 yards, 46 TD, 8 INT, 69.0 completion percentage and 118.0 rating would keep the award under center.

Wide Receiver/Tight End

No wide receiver or tight end has ever been named NFL MVP.

Randy Moss set the NFL single-season touchdown reception record in 2007 when he grabbed 23 passes in the end zone, but he missed out on the MVP because of the monster season by teammate Tom Brady.

Calvin Johnson of the Detroit Lions was the best wideout in 2011, amassing 1,681 yards and 16 touchdowns, both of which led all wide receivers. His 96 receptions were third-best among wideouts.

New England Patriots tight end Rob Gronkowski set the bar high for fellow tight ends last season, scoring an NFL-leading 17 receiving touchdowns and a sixth-best 1,327 yards on 90 receptions.

Johnson's 1,600-plus yards was the first for a wide receiver since Torry Holt accomplished the feat in 2003.

Marvin Harrison collected 1,722 yards in 2002—the most we've seen in years—on 143 receptions, but he only scored 11 touchdowns, which was nowhere near good enough for an MVP award. 

Prediction

Going off of what Johnson did in 2011, a wide receiver/tight end will have to lead the league in receptions, yardage and touchdowns to win the MVP award, and it's going to have to be a colossal season: 145 receptions, 1,800 yards and 24 TDs.

Defense

Alan Page of the 1971 Minnesota Vikings and Lawrence Taylor of the 1986 New York Giants remain the only defensive players to ever earn the distinction of an MVP in the NFL.

As arguably one of the most feared linebackers to ever play the game, Taylor set the NFL single-season sack record in 1986 when he reached the quarterback 20.5 times. That mark is now held by fellow former Giant Michael Strahan.

Simply put, it's going to take a monster defensive season to win the MVP award.

The 2011 season's Defensive Player of the Year award winner, linebacker Terrell Suggs, recorded 70 tackles, 14 sacks, seven forced fumbles and two interceptions to accomplish the feat.

From a defensive back's perspective, Troy Polamalu won the 2010 Defensive Player of the Year award when he amassed 63 tackles, one sack, one forced fumble, seven interceptions and one touchdown.

As a defensive end, Strahan never won the MVP award, even as the NFL's single-season sack king. Last season, Jared Allen led the league in sacks with 22, but recorded a mere 66 tackles. The defensive lineman with the most tackles in 2011 was Jason Pierre-Paul, who had 86 total tackles and 16.5 sacks.

Prediction

A linebacker will need to record at least 165 tackles, 17 sacks, six interceptions, eight forced fumbles and three touchdowns. For a defensive back, I would say 145 tackles, nine sacks, 10 interceptions, seven forced fumbles and five touchdowns. As for the defensive lineman, it's going to take upwards of 100 tackles and 25 sacks to bring home the hardware. 

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