A Very Early 2009 NBA Playoffs Betting Preview

2009 NBA Playoffs betting preview courtesy of Ted Sevranksy, an award-winning professional sports handicapper featured on Touthouse.com.

If you are betting the NBA this season, be sure to buy Ted Sevransky’s expert NBA picks

The Western Conference playoff race is basically settled before the All-Star break.

Heck, the playoff race was basically settled before Christmas.

There are nine Western Conference teams fighting for eight playoff spots. The Lakers are five games ahead of everybody else; a lock to make the postseason, and my clear choice to earn the No. 1 seed.

The Spurs, Nuggets, Hornets, Blazers, Rockets, Mavericks, Suns, and Jazz—eight teams in all—are fighting for seven playoff spots.

Minnesota is nine games behind Utah, the team currently sitting on the outside looking in. Golden State is eleven games behind the Jazz.

The Grizzlies, Thunder, Kings, and Clippers are all lottery-bound teams once again. That quartet will be mathematically eliminated from the postseason before March Madness rolls around!

Barring a near miracle from the T-wolves or Warriors, seven of the eight teams listed above will make the playoffs. One will miss out on the postseason.

There’s just not that much drama in the Western Conference this year, and that’s very much reflected in the current betting numbers. The Lakers are in the -120 range to make the NBA Finals, and I’d be hard pressed to find any reason or value betting against them. Phoenix, Dallas or Utah—whichever team is the least healthy or the most chemistry-impaired—will be on the outside looking in at the playoffs when late April rolls around.

The Eastern Conference, on the other hand, is loaded with questions and drama as we approach the All-Star break. There’s a three-way battle for the all important No. 1 seed.

That battle for the No. 1 seed is even more important than usual this year, because the No. 2 and #3 seeds are likely to engage in a brutal series leading up to the Eastern Conference Finals, while the No. 1 seed is likely to coast through the first two rounds, reaching the Conference Finals fresh and healthy.

I rank Cleveland and Boston a notch higher than Orlando. The Celtics won the title last year; the Cavs reached the Finals the previous year. The key players on both squads know what it takes to reach that level of excellence in the postseason. Meanwhile Dwight Howard and company have yet to reach the Conference Finals, let alone the NBA Finals.

I wouldn’t expect the Cavs or the Celtics to lose a Game Seven on their home floor. Earning the No. 1 seed in the East is of enormous importance—a race that is likely to go down to the final week of the season.

After the Big Three of the East, the rest of the conference is a jumbled mess. The only team out of the dozen remaining squads that is absolutely out of the playoff picture is the hapless Wizards. That leaves eleven teams legitimately fighting for five playoff berths, with only nine games separating the current No. 4 seed (Atlanta) from the current No. 14 seed (Toronto).

In the remainder of this week’s article, I will try to make some sense out of this jumbled morass. I’ll go through the teams one by one, listing them in order of their current rank in the standings.

Atlanta went 6-0 to open the season. Since that time, they have been a .500 ballclub. They haven’t beaten an opponent with a winning record in 2009. The Hawks haven’t even gotten the job done against weaker foes, just 3-8 ATS in their last eleven tries as a favorite.

Maybe things will get better when Al Horford returns from his knee injury, but his return date is still uncertain. Atlanta’s 18-5 SU record at home is the best of any Eastern Conference team other than the Big Three.

Miami ranks in the bottom third of the NBA in most key offensive categories—points per game, shooting percentage, three-point shooting percentage, free-throw shooting percentage, and offensive rebounding. Their only consistent scorer is Dwayne Wade, and they rank 26th out of 30 teams in rebounding margin, consistently manhandled in the paint.

Trade rumors continue to swirl in South Florida, never a good thing in terms of team chemistry. The only pointspread role that Miami has enjoyed success with this year is as a big underdog: 7-2 ATS as a dog of six points or more.

Detroit has lost nine of their last twelve. They are 21-21 since dealing Chauncey Billups for Allen Iverson. They were manhandled at the Palace of Auburn Hills by the Celtics and Cavs this past weekend.

Iverson: “Our whole thing is, it better be figured out by the time we get to the playoffs. Regardless of where we’re seeded, we need to be playing at a high level and that’s the only thing I’m concerned about.”

Iverson is assuming that Detroit will make the playoffs. I’m not willing to make that assumption.

Philadelphia is in excellent current form, winners of ten of their last 13 to finally reach the .500 plateau for the first time since November. Two of their three losses during this span came by a single bucket.

The 76ers' current run is very reminiscent of last year, when they were just 18-31 SU before going on a torrid 19-5 SU (17-7 ATS) run that led to a #7 seed in the Eastern Conference playoffs.

Right now, I rate the Sixers as the fourth-best team in the East, but they aren’t offering any value for their supporters of late, covering only one pointspread in their last six ballgames.

Milwaukee currently holds the No. 8 seed in the East. Frankly, I don’t expect that to last without veteran leader Michael Redd in the lineup. The Bucks are 2-2 SU and ATS since Redd’s season ending injury, but their 5-10 ATS mark in their last 15 games is a far cry from their 24-11-1 ATS mark to start the season.

No team in the league has been more inconsistent than Milwaukee. They’ve won three in a row only once all season, and are just 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight tries following a SU victory.

Next time: assessing the chances of the teams currently sitting ninth to 14th in the Eastern Conference standings.