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The Real Winners and Losers in the NBA Lottery
Erick BlascoMay 24, 2007
It's easy to spot the winners and losers in the 2007 NBA Draft Lottery. Portland and Seattle each came out of nowhere to nab the top two picks. With Greg Oden and Kevin Durant there for the taking, Blazers and Sonics fans must feel like...well, like they won the lottery.
The Atlanta Hawks came away with a nice consolation prize—provided they don't tank next year and give a top-two pick to the Suns. They missed out on Oden and Durant, but the Hawks have to be happy to end up with two picks in a rich draft class after almost losing them both.
Unless Chicago finds a franchise player at nine, the Knicks are also winners, even though they don't have a pick. Trading Eddy Curry for Tyus Thomas and Yi Jianlian looks a whole lot better than trading Curry for Thomas and Oden/Durant.
Of course, you can't have winners without losers. Boston and Memphis each hoped to justify a horrible season by landing the rights to a franchise player. Missing out on the Oden/Durant sweepstakes only adds insult to injury for two struggling franchises.
The Bucks, meanwhile, had an outside shot at a top pick but fell to sixth. The Pacers are also losers: Their stupid Al Harrington trade (the one with the Hawks, not the one with the Warriors) left them without a pick.
What does all this mean for the parties involved?
The Blazers, for their part, could be an elite Western Conference team within three years. Portland has a dynamic young post presence, an intelligent young swingman, a talented young point guard, and a capable young center...and that's without Oden or Durant!
The biggest issue for Portland is the team's tarnished image. With most of the knuckleheads gone (Darius Miles is set to join them) and Zach Randolph in the process of resurrecting his career, the Blazers are well on their way to winning the PR game.
Talent-wise, Portland's biggest needs are a scoring guard and a deeper bench. Durant could fill the first void—he'd play small forward, allowing Brandon Roy to play the two. Durant's presence would take pressure off Roy on the perimeter, and allow him to focus on playing without the ball to register his points.
Durant would also help to offset Randolph's laziness on the boards without cutting into Randolph's or LaMarcus Aldridge's playing time.
Durant's defense is a question mark, and his transition game may be underutilized in the half-court sets the Blazers run with Roy and Jarrett Jack.
In Oden, Portland would get the game's best young center since Tim Duncan. Oden, Randolph, and Roy, combined with Aldridge off the bench, would make for a stellar young frontcourt. Drafting Oden would also give the Blazers the luxury of trading Aldridge for a scoring guard.
As he develops, Oden's inside presence will draw double teams and create open shots for his teammates. With Oden on the court, opponents would have to defend Randolph one-on-one.
The question marks for Oden: Does Portland have enough perimeter punch without another guard? Would Randolph get jealous? Do the Blazers have the coaching and patience required to develop the big man?
In any event, look for Portland to make the playoffs within two years. With Durant, the Blazers will score points by the bushel, and might even make the postseason next year. Oden would transform the team into a rugged defensive unit that would likely take an extra year or two to find its groove.
My two cents: Go with Greg. While Durant might bring quicker success, Oden has the skills to carry a team to a championship. Remember, quality big men are hard to find. Take this one while you can and reap the rewards down the road.
Seattle's case is a little trickier because of the uncertainty surrounding Rashard Lewis.
The Sonics' most pressing need is a defensive force in the middle. Maybe Robert Swift can be that guy, but he's young and has been plagued by injuries his brief career.
If Lewis stays and the Sonics get Oden, look for Lewis, Ray Allen, and Luke Ridnour to excel on the perimeter. Add in Swift and Nick Collison as spark-plug power forwards and you have the makings of a pretty solid foundation.
If Lewis leaves and the Sonics get Oden, it becomes decision time in Seattle. Oden's defensive presence down low might allow the Sonics to go after an offensive-minded wing. Alternatively, the team could lean on Ridnour as a third option and go after a more accomplished defender.
If Lewis stays and the Sonics get Durant, Seattle will look like the wing-heavy Golden State Warriors. Unfortunately, the Sonics don't get enough steals to fuel a transition game, and Ridnour—unlike Baron Davis—is a half-court guard. Plus, the Sonics lack adept defenders...and we saw what happened to the Warriors when they ran into a patient offense that could attack the paint.
If Lewis leaves and the Sonics get Durant, Seattle will have room to add a conventional power forward. Durant can team with Allen to provide the fireworks, while Swift (hopefully) can develop into a formidable player near the basket.
With so much offensive firepower on the roster, Seattle can also expect to get back to the playoffs inside of two years. If they keep Lewis and get Oden, they might have the makings of a championship team. Either way, they have the easiest job on draft day: Take whoever Portland passes on.
And then there's Memphis. The Grizzlies have a decent big man and a decent wing scorer...and a supreme lack of defense and toughness. They'll miss Oden incredibly, and even Durant would have helped them outscore opponents.
True, the number four pick could net the Griz some worthwhile returns. Mike Conley could be their point guard for the next decade. Al Horford could complement Pau Gasol. Corey Brewer could team with Mike Miller to form an all-Gator wing.
What do all those scenarios have in common?
None of them give the Grizzlies the franchise player they sorely need.
As for the Celtics: Given how inept the franchise has been the last few years, they would have drafted Oden or Durant and still sucked. As it is, they'll probably take Yi Jianlian and watch him turn into another Nikoloz Tskitishvili.
The real lesson here: Boston concentrated on NOT winning games down the stretch and has nothing to show for it. The Blazers did things the right way and came out on top.
Who says there's no such thing as karma in the NBA?
The Blazers, for their part, could be an elite Western Conference team within three years. Portland has a dynamic young post presence, an intelligent young swingman, a talented young point guard, and a capable young center...and that's without Oden or Durant!
The biggest issue for Portland is the team's tarnished image. With most of the knuckleheads gone (Darius Miles is set to join them) and Zach Randolph in the process of resurrecting his career, the Blazers are well on their way to winning the PR game.
Talent-wise, Portland's biggest needs are a scoring guard and a deeper bench. Durant could fill the first void—he'd play small forward, allowing Brandon Roy to play the two. Durant's presence would take pressure off Roy on the perimeter, and allow him to focus on playing without the ball to register his points.
Durant would also help to offset Randolph's laziness on the boards without cutting into Randolph's or LaMarcus Aldridge's playing time.
Durant's defense is a question mark, and his transition game may be underutilized in the half-court sets the Blazers run with Roy and Jarrett Jack.
In Oden, Portland would get the game's best young center since Tim Duncan. Oden, Randolph, and Roy, combined with Aldridge off the bench, would make for a stellar young frontcourt. Drafting Oden would also give the Blazers the luxury of trading Aldridge for a scoring guard.
As he develops, Oden's inside presence will draw double teams and create open shots for his teammates. With Oden on the court, opponents would have to defend Randolph one-on-one.
The question marks for Oden: Does Portland have enough perimeter punch without another guard? Would Randolph get jealous? Do the Blazers have the coaching and patience required to develop the big man?
In any event, look for Portland to make the playoffs within two years. With Durant, the Blazers will score points by the bushel, and might even make the postseason next year. Oden would transform the team into a rugged defensive unit that would likely take an extra year or two to find its groove.
My two cents: Go with Greg. While Durant might bring quicker success, Oden has the skills to carry a team to a championship. Remember, quality big men are hard to find. Take this one while you can and reap the rewards down the road.
Seattle's case is a little trickier because of the uncertainty surrounding Rashard Lewis.
The Sonics' most pressing need is a defensive force in the middle. Maybe Robert Swift can be that guy, but he's young and has been plagued by injuries his brief career.
If Lewis stays and the Sonics get Oden, look for Lewis, Ray Allen, and Luke Ridnour to excel on the perimeter. Add in Swift and Nick Collison as spark-plug power forwards and you have the makings of a pretty solid foundation.
If Lewis leaves and the Sonics get Oden, it becomes decision time in Seattle. Oden's defensive presence down low might allow the Sonics to go after an offensive-minded wing. Alternatively, the team could lean on Ridnour as a third option and go after a more accomplished defender.
If Lewis stays and the Sonics get Durant, Seattle will look like the wing-heavy Golden State Warriors. Unfortunately, the Sonics don't get enough steals to fuel a transition game, and Ridnour—unlike Baron Davis—is a half-court guard. Plus, the Sonics lack adept defenders...and we saw what happened to the Warriors when they ran into a patient offense that could attack the paint.
If Lewis leaves and the Sonics get Durant, Seattle will have room to add a conventional power forward. Durant can team with Allen to provide the fireworks, while Swift (hopefully) can develop into a formidable player near the basket.
With so much offensive firepower on the roster, Seattle can also expect to get back to the playoffs inside of two years. If they keep Lewis and get Oden, they might have the makings of a championship team. Either way, they have the easiest job on draft day: Take whoever Portland passes on.
And then there's Memphis. The Grizzlies have a decent big man and a decent wing scorer...and a supreme lack of defense and toughness. They'll miss Oden incredibly, and even Durant would have helped them outscore opponents.
True, the number four pick could net the Griz some worthwhile returns. Mike Conley could be their point guard for the next decade. Al Horford could complement Pau Gasol. Corey Brewer could team with Mike Miller to form an all-Gator wing.
What do all those scenarios have in common?
None of them give the Grizzlies the franchise player they sorely need.
As for the Celtics: Given how inept the franchise has been the last few years, they would have drafted Oden or Durant and still sucked. As it is, they'll probably take Yi Jianlian and watch him turn into another Nikoloz Tskitishvili.
The real lesson here: Boston concentrated on NOT winning games down the stretch and has nothing to show for it. The Blazers did things the right way and came out on top.
Who says there's no such thing as karma in the NBA?
