NBA Free Agency 2012: 15 Restricted Free Agents Teams Must Gamble on to Improve

Top-tier talent shifts around the NBA on what seems like a constant basis. Whether through free agency or trades, big names are always moving.

Getting one of these big names usually helps a team—but sometimes keeping the younger, lesser-known names is better for a team than bringing in the big shots.

This year’s free-agent crop features a healthy dose of middle-of-the-road restricted free agents who could blossom into potential All-Stars.

These 15 players need to be retained by their current teams. Otherwise, management will kick itself when they become stars elsewhere.

Aaron Brooks, Phoenix Suns

Qualifying offer: $3 million

With the future of Steve Nash in question, locking up his replacement is a top priority.

That’s where Aaron Brooks comes in. Brooks is an established NBA point guard the Suns can potentially sign on the cheap.

The biggest question mark surrounding Brooks is whether he improved or regressed in China during his season away from the NBA.

If he is able to recreate his 2009-10 campaign when he was named the NBA’s Most Improved Player, Phoenix has a bargain.

George Hill, Indiana Pacers

Qualifying offer: $3.1 million

The Indiana Pacers point guard had an impressive season backing up Darren Collison.

Then Collison went down with a groin injury, and George Hill has taken his game to a new level in the postseason.

His scoring is up and he is playing efficient basketball. Hill looks like he could supplant Collison in the starting lineup.

To be Indiana’s full-time starting point guard, Hill needs to increase his assists. Once he does that, the Pacers are in good shape.

Nicolas Batum, Portland Trail Blazers

Qualifying offer: $3.2 million

Portland cost itself a lot of money by not re-signing Nicolas Batum during the season.

Now that Batum has emerged as a potential All-Star in the future, he will command at least one or two high offers from teams around the league.

With two other countrymen on their roster, the San Antonio Spurs are rumored to be a destination for the Flying Frenchman.

Batum is a 6'8" slasher who can bury threes, defend positions 1 through 4 and spark the crowd with spectacular blocks. Portland cannot afford to let such a specimen walk out its doors.

Courtney Lee, Houston Rockets

Qualifying offer: $3.2 million

With a healthy Kevin Martin next season, Courtney Lee will return to the bench.

Lee coming off the bench for Houston makes the Rockets a playoff team. He will be one of the best sixth men in the league.

If he adjusts to the role and accepts it, he can affect games. Lee can come off the bench and score, and he can score from deep.

Retaining Lee allows the Rockets to bring instant offense off the bench next season.

Ryan Anderson, Orlando Magic

Qualifying offer: $3.2 million

The reigning Most Improved Player in the NBA will draw high-dollar interest from other teams.

He is a top-notch scorer, and he improved his rebounding prowess dramatically this year.

Anderson does not need to improve as much as some other players on this list. If he is able to sustain this level of play and improve on one or two facets of his game—defense—he is deserving of far more than a $3 million offer.

J.J. Hickson, Portland Trail Blazers

Qualifying offer: $3.4 million

With the exception of Jeremy Lin, J.J. Hickson was the best waiver-wire pickup of the 2011-12 season.

In Hickson’s brief stint in Portland, he made double-doubles his calling card. He did so while playing in place of starting power forward LaMarcus Aldridge—as Aldridge’s backup and alongside him.

Next season, Hickson will have to accept a reduced role with the Blazers. A healthy Aldridge will play 35 minutes a night. That leaves few precious minutes for the backup power forward.

However, the duo’s ability to coexist creates the option of playing Aldridge minutes at center with Hickson manning the power forward spot.

Hickson’s ability to accept a reduced role is the biggest X-factor for Portland in re-signing him.

JaVale McGee, Denver Nuggets

Qualifying offer: $3.5 million

Improving mentally is the biggest key for JaVale McGee.

He is one of the most gifted athletes in the NBA, but his lack of focus has made him a household name.

If Denver can figure out a way to harness all of McGee’s energy onto the floor and away from fake pet platypuses, the Nuggets will have a shot-blocking, slam-jamming force like no other in the league.

Either way, it’s a near guarantee that McGee sells tickets.

But for his game to translate into wins, he must improve his mental approach.

Roy Hibbert, Indiana Pacers

Qualifying offer: $3.7 million

The 7'2" Indiana center has improved his production in all four of his NBA seasons. That paid off this year with a berth in the All-Star game.

Hibbert is a late bloomer in terms of basketball and has shown a willingness to work hard. He will continue to add to his offensive repertoire. That will make him even more dangerous around the basket.

Two or three more seasons of consistent improvement will make Hibbert a mainstay in future All-Star games.

Marreese Speights, Memphis Grizzlies

Qualifying offer: $3.8 million

Marreese Speights saw an expanded role this season from years past. In response, he posted career-high numbers in points and rebounds per game.

He still did not play a ton of minutes—22.4 per game—but was effective while on the floor.

Speights could up his production even more in more minutes. At 30 minutes a game, it’s easy to see him averaging double-digit scoring and maybe even posting double-doubles on a nightly basis.

Expect continued improvement from Speights in his fifth season.

Robin Lopez, Phoenix Suns

Qualifying offer: $4 million

Robin Lopez has a long way to go before becoming as good a center as his twin brother.

Right now he can’t seem to get off the bench—in his four seasons, Lopez has averaged 14.4 minutes per game.

For a seven-footer with a decent touch (career .517 field-goal percentage), Lopez needs to figure out a way to get onto the floor.

He has to learn how to become a better rebounder and a more aggressive scorer.

One area in which Lopez does not need to improve, however, is the quote department.

Brook Lopez, Brooklyn Nets

Qualifying offer: $4.2 million

Brook Lopez looked like he was blossoming into one of the game’s premier centers. Then an injury limited him to five games last season.

Career averages of 17.5 points and 7.5 rebounds per game are tough to improve on—but Lopez needs to only remain healthy to improve the Brooklyn Nets in 2013.

D.J. Augustin, Charlotte Bobcats

Qualifying offer: $4.4 million

With D.J. Augustin and Kemba Walker in the backcourt, the Charlotte Bobcats could have the same kind of undersized success the Golden State Warriors found with Monta Ellis and Steph Curry.

Augustin needs to improve his shot selection—last season he shot .376 overall and .341 on threes.

Augustin has proven himself to be a better passer than Walker and can take on distribution duties if the Bobcats add any talent elsewhere on the roster.

Eric Gordon, New Orleans Hornets

Qualifying offer: $5.1 million

Eric Gordon is a premier scorer but missed most of last season.

If he is able to stay in the lineup in 2012-13, the Hornets have the go-to scorer they lacked in 2011-12.

At just 23 years of age, New Orleans must lock up Gordon and his career 18.2 points per game. He shoots a high percentage (.452) for a guard.

He’s also an adept thief, averaging better than a steal a game in his brief career.

Gordon is still a few years shy of his prime. The Hornets have to keep him because it’s a near guarantee he will get even better in the next few seasons.

Jeff Green, Boston Celtics

Qualifying offer: $7.2 million

After missing the 2011-12 season with a heart condition, Jeff Green should be ready to return to the NBA in 2012-13.

Green showed signs of stardom during his first few years in the league with Seattle/Oklahoma City.

As Boston turns its attention toward building for the future around Rajon Rondo, Green could be a big piece of that puzzle. His scoring and rebounding abilities at the small forward position will ease the transition away from Paul Pierce.

O.J. Mayo, Memphis Grizzlies

Qualifying offer: $7.4 million

O.J. Mayo has regressed since his rookie year. Part of that comes from a slippage in minutes played.

Mayo needs to raise his shooting percentages and scoring averages back to the level they were at during his first two years in the NBA.

Mayo has shown he is able to compete at a high level in the NBA. He must return to that level to justify a contract offer from Memphis.