2012 NBA Free Agents: Jeremy Lin Not Worth Big Bucks in Loaded Point Guard Class
If you thought Linsanity was overblown during the season, just wait and see what happens when the NBA opens up free agency on July 1st.
The flash-in-the-pan point guard who shot to stardom with the New York Knicks is already garnering interest from a handful of teams ahead of his impending foray into restricted free agency. According to Alex Kennedy of Hoopsworld, Lin's list of suitors already includes the Dallas Mavericks, the Toronto Raptors, the Portland Trail Blazers, the Golden State Warriors and the Brooklyn Nets.
Lin will be limited to a maximum salary of $5 million in the first year and $5.225 million in the second year of whatever new deal he signs on account of the "Gilbert Arenas Provision" that was included in the new collective bargaining agreement.
From a marketing standpoint, it makes sense that so many teams would take such a keen interest in Lin, especially at that price. The 23-year-old generated tremendous interest across the country and around the world, both for his underdog story (i.e. a Harvard grad fulfilling his NBA dream after going undrafted and getting cut twice) and his Chinese and Taiwanese heritage.
In short, Lin's a unique player with a unique story around whom unique opportunities for advertisers, corporate sponsors and ticket vendors tend to coalesce.
And, as a basketball player, Lin's prospects for future success are solid. He averaged 14.6 points and 6.2 assists in 35 games this season, and saw his production shoot up to 18.2 points and 7.7 assists in games that he started.
The kid can certainly play, though there's still plenty of cause for concern. He turned the ball over 3.6 times per game for the Knicks, which would've made him the seventh-most giveaway-prone player in the league if he'd qualified statistically.
Or, in laymen's terms, smack-dab between Russell Westbrook (3.62) and Kobe Bryant (3.52).
There's also the business about Lin's defensive deficiencies, though he was hardly the only player whose energy was focused solely on one end of the court while Mike D'Antoni was still running the show.
Let's not forget, either, that the meat of his free-agent portfolio consists of a stretch that didn't even last two months! If you're the Knicks, the Mavs, the Raptors, the Blazers, the Warriors or the Nets, are you really going to shell out $5 million per season (or more) whose NBA stardom lasted all of seven weeks?
Especially when that was cut short by a season-ending knee injury. Granted, it was "just" a small meniscus tear, but the fact that he's even mildly damaged goods can't help his vale on the open market.
Above all, what makes this coming chapter of Linsanity so ridiculous is the fact that the free-agent class of 2012 is so deep on quality point guards. Why spend beaucoup bucks on a largely unproven player like Lin when there are veteran guys like Deron Williams, Steve Nash, Chauncey Billups, Andre Miller, Jason Kidd, Kirk Hinrich, Jason Terry, Leandro Barbosa and Jameer Nelson open for business?
Any team looking to take a chance on a young point guard would be just as well off spending the same (or less) on Jerryd Bayless, Goran Dragic, Aaron Brooks or Ramon Sessions. Like Lin, these guys all have holes in their respective games, though at least they've proven their potential over the course of more than two months.
They may not have nearly the same pop culture cachet that Lin does, but they just might be better options when it comes to winning games.
And, last I checked, nothing sells tickets, ads and sponsorships better than a team that piles up victories.
With all of that being said, don't be surprised if Lin winds up embarrassingly rich anyway. For whatever reason, NBA general managers have long been prone to making multimillionaires out of scrubs, at the expense of their financial flexibility and despite the best efforts of owners to curb such superfluous spending in collective bargaining agreements.
That trend doesn't figure to change for an overhyped, worldwide phenomenon like Lin. If anything, Lin's profile makes him as prime a candidate as any to suck up a team's cap space for years to come.
