Fantasy Football 2012: Top Third Year Wide Receiver Breakout Candidates

There is a school of thought in fantasy football that wide receivers entering their third season can be attractive fantasy targets, as they often go on to have "breakout" campaigns.

This doesn't always prove to be the case, as Kenny Britt of the Tennessee Titans was believed to be a leading candidate to explode a season ago, only to tear his ACL three games into the season and record fewer than 300 receiving yards.

However, there have been any number of instances of wide receivers posting big numbers in their third years—with Steve Johnson of the Buffalo Bills serving as a recent example—so it can be advantageous for fantasy owners to take a look at the leading candidates for a third year "breakout" in 2012.

It's important to note that I have omitted Antonio Brown of the Pittsburgh Steelers and Victor Cruz of the New York Giants from this list. Both players topped 1,000 yards and cracked the top 25 in fantasy points among wide receivers last year, and it seems sort of silly to predict a breakout season for a player who already has.

David Nelson, WR, Buffalo Bills

Buffalo Bills wide receiver David Nelson made the most of increased playing time during his second season in the National Football League, reeling in 61 passes for 658 yards and five touchdowns while finishing among the top 40 fantasy wideouts in 2011.

There is ample reason to believe that the former Gators standout will build on those statistics in 2012, even though Nelson will battle Donald Jones for second receiver duties for the Bills this season.

However, Nelson will also see significant playing time as the slot receiver in the Bills' three-wide sets. Nelson's capabilities as an underneath receiver and red-zone target should mean additional targets and should give the 6'5" Nelson added value, especially in leagues that award points for receptions.

Eric Decker and DeMaryius Thomas, WR, Denver Broncos

A "double-dip" of potential third-year breakout candidates, both DeMaryius Thomas and Eric Decker enjoyed some success even in the face of the challenging role of catching passes from quarterback Tim Tebow in the Mile High City last year.

Thomas came on strong down the stretch for the Broncos a season ago, emerging as Tebow's favorite vertical target late in the season, and it was the former Georgia Tech Star who hauled in the game-winning pass from Tebow in Denver's surprising overtime playoff win over the Steelers last year.

Decker, on the other hand, led the team in both receptions and receiving yards in 2011, and the 6'3" wideout's eight touchdown passes were twice as many as any other player on the team had a season ago.

There's plenty of reason to think that both pass-catchers could be in for career years in 2012 with the addition of free-agent quarterback Peyton Manning, who should have quite a bit more success hitting both receivers in stride with passes than the wildly erratic Tebow did.

Thomas is more a "home-run" option with a higher ceiling, but Decker's higher reception numbers will probably make him the more consistent weekly option of the two and preferable in PPR formats.

Dez Bryant, WR, Dallas Cowboys

I'd be remiss if I didn't at least mention the biggest "name" among the third year wide receivers, which is undoubtedly the mercurial Dez Bryant of the Dallas Cowboys, who made 63 receptions for 928 yards and nine touchdowns a season ago for the Cowboys while cracking the top 20 fantasy wideouts. 

Bryant has yet to live up to the hype that surrounded his entry into the NFL in 2010, as injuries and a number of off-the-field incidents have made more news than anything the 6'2" Bryant has accomplished on the field to this point.

However, Dallas receivers coach Jimmy Robinson recently told the Fort Worth Star-Telegram that Bryant is "working really, really hard to get better," in offseason workouts and that "He’s doing great. Having a good offseason."

Given that Bryant had six-or-more catches in four of the last five games for Dallas last year (with three touchdowns), it's not hard at all to envision Bryant positing the first 1,000-yard season of his career this year, and a top-10 season at his position isn't out of the realm of reason.

Follow @IDPManor