NHL Playoffs 2012: 6 Reasons the Washington Capitals Will Win Game 7

The Washington Capitals will win Game 7 of their series with the New York Rangers.

Yes, that is a bold statement and, to a great extent, it flies in the face of not just conventional wisdom but history as well.

After all, the Caps are a rather dismal 3-7 in Game 7s in their less-than-stellar playoff history.

The Rangers are not really that much better, posting only a 4-5 record. However, those four wins came at Madison Square Garden. The Rangers have never lost a Game 7 at home.

Home ice has suddenly become an advantage in this series. The home team has won the past three games.

With one of the best shot-blocking defenses in the league, the Rangers were the best team in the Eastern Conference during the regular season.

They also have a Vezina Trophy finalist in net and will certainly be a mad and aggressive team after their lackluster showing in Game 6, not to mention the tongue-lashing they most certainly received  from coach John Tortorella.

Reading all that, I almost convinced myself that I had it wrong and that the Rangers would win this game.

But they won't.

The Capitals will thumb their nose at all of this, just as they did against Boston.

Here are six reasons why.

1. The Caps Have Been Better 5 on 5

One thing that has become apparent is that the Rangers are finding it increasingly difficult to score when the teams skate five a side.

I heard Barry Melrose talking about this on ESPN, so I wanted to look into it further.

If you look solely at the box scores, though, you would not know this.

Through six games, the Caps have eight goals at even strength and four on power plays. The Rangers have nine at even strength and four on power plays.

But if you actually look at the Rangers' goals from Game 3 through Game 6, it becomes apparent that it is getting more difficult for them to find the back of the net when it is five on five.

In Game 3, Marian Gaborik's game-winner was beautiful. Ryan Callahan's power-play goal, however, was a matter of him being in the right place at the right time. He smacked home a puck that was left lying at his feet.

In Game 4, Artem Ansimov's goal was a similar easy putback off an odd bounce, and Gaborik's goal, while a great shot, came as a result of one of the Caps' few mental errors.

In Game 5, Anton Stralman's goal was probably the softest goal that Braden Holtby has allowed all series. After that, though, the Rangers were completely shut down. Not until they were able to get a four-minute double-minor penalty against Joel Ward were they able to score again.

In Game 6, the Rangers were nearly shut out. Only when they had an empty net and an extra attacker could they score. And even that came as the result of a fortunate bounce off John Carlson.

There is no question the Rangers are generating offense. But when it is five on five, the Rangers' quality scoring chances have not been as good as Washington's. There are several reasons for this.

Offensively, the Rangers do not have as much skill as the Caps. Yes, Ranger fans, I know you have Brad Richards and Callahan and Gaborik and Anisimov and Chris Kreider. They are all very good players.

But the Caps have two-time MVP Alexander Ovechkin who, when he wants to be, is still one of the best players in the world, bar none. In Game 6, the Great Eight imposed his will and the Caps won.

But it is not just Ovechkin. People seem to forget how dangerous the Caps can be offensively. Don't let the shift to defensive hockey fool you, or being the No. 7 seed. At its core, this is still the same team that in 2009-2010 scored 318 goals, won 54 games and amassed 121 points.

Yes, we all know what happened to that team. It does not change the fact that players like Alexander Semin, Nicklas Backstrom, Brooks Laich and Jason Chimera (who is rapidly turning into a Ranger killer) are not just very good players—they can all be game-changers.

It is on defense, however, that the Caps' five-on-five advantage is being felt the most. Everyone is blocking shots. Everyone is playing hard.

A prime example is Mike Green. He was always a very good offensive defender. But he is, without question, playing excellent, tough, playoff-style defense in 2012. The transformation is nothing short of remarkable.

Beyond Green, other perennial playoff disappointments have come to play this postseason. Backstrom is playing a very physical brand of hockey. Semin might not be scoring but his effort is off the charts. Keeping him contained has been a tall order for the Rangers.

Just look at the effort he put forth on Chimera's goal in Game 6.

When it is five a side, it is getting increasingly difficult for the Rangers to get pucks to the net. The Rangers have actually outshot the Caps by 100 shots in this series—100 shots!

But as far as shots on goal, the Rangers only have a 24-shot advantage. The Caps have blocked 164 shots in this series.

When it is five on five, the puck is just not getting to the net for the Rangers. The Caps are "all in" as far as the defensive style of play Dale Hunter has emphasized.

And with the Caps slight but noticeable advantage with their skill players, if the Caps stay out of the penalty box and keep the game as a five-on-five affair, the Caps' advantage should be enough for them to win Game 7.

2. Braden Holtby Is Not Going to Crack

I find it rather amusing that people are still, apparently, waiting for Braden Holtby to fall apart.

It is just not going to happen.

They look at his odd mannerisms or his unorthodox pregame routines and just can't believe that the 22-year-old rookie is not just competing with guys like Tim Thomas or Henrik Lundqvist, he is outplaying them.

Believe it.

A 1.95 goals against average and a .935 save percentage, despite facing more shots than any other goalie in the playoffs, is all the proof you need.

If you are a Rangers fan, the really bad news is that Holtby seems to be getting stronger as this series has progressed.

Holtby's performance in Game 6 was his best of the playoffs—just when the Caps needed it most. He stopped 30 of the 31 shots he faced. What was equally impressive was his rebound control. He was swallowing virtually everything up, giving the Rangers no second-chance opportunities.

On top of that, Holtby just became a father on Thursday, so he now has another reason to succeed.

Could Holtby put together a stinker of an effort in Game 7 like Seymon Varlamov did against the Penguins a few years back? Sure, anything is possible. But you also have to recall that the Caps defense, or lack thereof, pretty much hung Varlamov out to dry in that game.

The Caps' defense in 2012 plays tremendously hard for Holtby. He won't have to worry about wave after wave of Rangers coming in on him unmolested.

There is no real indication that a collapse by Holtby is imminent. Holtby plays like a seasoned veteran. He just does not get rattled or shaken. Even when he is scored on, he barely reacts. He is as cool as they come. He has not lost his poise, at all, as the playoffs have progressed.

His performance in the hostile confines of the TD Garden against the Bruins in Game 7 was absolutely inspiring. His play as this series has gone on has been just as good, maybe better.

As Scott Burnside reported:

"According to the Elias Sports Bureau, only Ken Dryden (1971), Mike Vernon (1986), Felix Potvin (1993) and Cam Ward (2006) have won two Game 7s as rookies."

Braden Holtby has a chance to be included with some elite company with a win in Game 7. That he even has a chance to be mentioned in the same breath as Dryden, Vernon, Potvin and Ward should tell you just what he has accomplished so far.

If Holtby puts forth a similarly strong effort in Game 7, and if he can control his rebounds, the Caps should advance to the conference finals for the first time since 1998.

3. The Rangers Defenders Are Getting Tired

Earlier, I mentioned how I felt the Caps had an advantage if the game was a five-on-five affair. One of the factors I mentioned was my opinion that the Caps had superior skill players.

For the Rangers, that problem gets compounded by the reality that their defenders are getting tired.

Compare the top defensive pairings for both teams, the Caps' Karl Alzner and John Carlson and the Rangers' Ryan McDonagh and Dan Girardi.

Through the first six games, Alzner and Carlson have logged a little more than 298 minutes of combined ice time; McDonagh and Girardi have put in almost 321 minutes.

That means that the Rangers' two best defenders (arguably) have put in nearly 23 minutes more ice time than the Caps' best defensive pairing.

That might not sound like much, but consider that Alzner and Carlson average about 22-23 minutes per game. Essentially, it means the Rangers' defenders have probably played about a half a game more than the Caps' defenders.

In the marathon Game 3, McDonagh played a staggering 53 minutes. Girardi played 44. By comparison, Alzner played 37 minutes, Carlson 39.

McDonagh and Girardi are great athletes but they are only human. Between this series and the Ottawa series, fatigue has to be catching up to them.

Never was this more evident than in Game 6 when John Tortorella had to use his timeout in the second period. When asked about it after the game, he said he did so because his team was tired.

You could see this on the ice, particularly when Jason Chimera had the puck. The Rangers defenders in general seemed to have difficulty keeping up with him.

With the Rangers slowly tiring out, the Caps talented skaters should be able to gain an extra step on them.

That could be all the advantage the Caps need to win Game 7.

4. The Pressure Is All on the Rangers

It was not supposed to be this hard for the top-seeded Rangers. Ottawa was supposed to pose no challenge, but it took New York seven games to oust the Sens.

Against the Caps, this was supposed to be a series of redemption for the Rangers. After all, they had largely been built to defeat this specific team in the playoffs after having fallen short against them two of the prior three years.

To say things have not gone according to plan would be an understatement.

It started off well with a win in Game 1, but the Rangers could not hold that advantage.

They then won a classic in Game 3 and the series was theirs for the taking. They came out flat in Game 4 and squandered that opportunity.

Then they pulled off an absolute miracle to win Game 5, but gave up a power-play goal less than two minutes into Game 6 and were never really in the game after that.

So now the Rangers have to play a second Game 7 in as many series, at home, against a team they have had so much trouble with the past few years.

The Rangers are supposed to win this game. They are supposed to win this series. They are supposed to challenge for the Stanley Cup.

They are playing at home, where they have never lost a Game 7. No team has won two in a row in this series, so this should be the Rangers' turn to win. They have a Vezina Trophy finalist in goal and opposite him is a 22-year-old rookie who had never even won a playoff series before 2012.

If the Rangers lose this game, it will be a crushing defeat for them and their fans.

If the Caps win, it will be a resounding success in a postseason full of surprises.

It is safe to say that all the pressure is on the Rangers. They responded well against Ottawa.

If they do not respond well against Washington, Game 7 will be over before it really begins.

5. The Caps Are the More Resilient Team

While the Rangers showed a lot of heart and fight against the Senators in the opening round of the playoffs, they have not had to consistently rise to the occasion like the Capitals have in this series.

First, the Caps had to come back from their worst game of the playoffs to avoid going down to the Rangers 2-0 in the series. They responded with a tough 3-2 victory in Game 2 after having blown a two-goal lead.

They then had to rebound from a hugely disappointing triple-overtime loss in Game 3, a game they probably should have won. They responded with a dominating first period in Game 4 before winning that game late.

Then there was Game 6. Facing elimination and coming off one of the most brutal collapses in Caps playoff history, they played their most complete game of the series and forced a Game 7.

In Game 6, the Caps had to face down the demons of Game 5 all over again. They were forced to kill off a four-minute Rangers' power play, the exact scenario that doomed the Caps in the previous game.

In what was their best moment of the game, the Caps not only killed off the power play to preserve a 2-0 lead but very nearly scored a short-handed goal.

For the Caps, they have done all this in the face of all their prior playoff failures. At any time, they could have succumbed to the ghosts of hockey past and quit. They have refused to do so. They have reacted to tremendous adversity with the heart of a champion.

The Rangers have not faced that type of adversity in this series, not even close. The Rangers have never trailed in the series in terms of wins. They have always either been a game up or tied.

They now face an elimination game against a team that has basically been playing elimination games for close to two months now.

The Caps already have been here, playing a Game 7 on the road against a supposedly superior team. The Caps will not be fazed by the situation, and they are a much better team than the Senators team that pushed the Rangers to the limit.

Whether the Rangers will respond with the resolve of a champion remains to be seen. But thus far, the Caps are the more resilient team and this will carry them to a Game 7 win.

6. The Caps Are Due for a Lucky Break

Prior to Game 6, I wrote about the reasons I thought the Caps could come back and win not just that game but the series as well.

One of the reasons was because I felt their luck was due to change.

Prior to Game 6, the Caps had hit a post or crossbar six times in the series, with none of those shots deflecting off the iron and going in.

Well, add two more to that total from Game 6.

The Caps are striking iron with somewhat startling frequency.

Sooner or later, one of those shots is going to deflect the other way and go in. Sooner or later, the law of averages almost mandates this.

It worked for New York in Game 5. It stands to reason that the Caps are due for a similar break. If they catch such a break, with goals at such a premium, Game 7 could turn on that moment alone.

But the Caps are due for more luck than just that. Caps fans know all too well that with the possible exception of the Cleveland Browns, the Caps might just be the most snake-bit franchise in all of sports.

The bad luck that has followed this franchise since its first playoff appearance in 1983 is astounding. From crazy bounces to red-hot goalies to astonishing comebacks, no franchise in the history of hockey has failed repeatedly and in as agonizing a fashion as the Caps.

This 2012 team seems intent on erasing history and going someplace that no Caps team since 1998 has gone.

A little luck would go a long way toward accomplishing just that.