Against the Odds: Can the Edmonton Oilers Make the Playoffs?

Except for the debacle of the 2006 season where the Oilers won just two of their last 20 or so games, Oiler fans have been part of many memorable sprints to the finish line when it comes to a push for the last playoff spot in the Western Conference. 

Written off since before the trade deadline this year, when they sat 11 points out of 8th spot in the West, the Oilers seemed all but mathematically eliminated from the postseason. 

Returning from a horrible road trip that saw them lose important games in both Dallas and Tampa, the Oilers came home facing much the same scenario they did last year, not to mention a huge rash of season ending injuries to several key players including Shawn Horcoff and Sheldon Souray. 

But unlike last year, the team hasn't rolled over and died, and instead has put together a vital four-game winning streak, and now sits within seven points of Colarado for the last playoff spot with sixteen games remaining. 

The question is, can the Oilers pull off another miracle by sneaking in the back door with four weeks left in the season?

With 15 games left, after the loss to the Nashville Predators, the Oilers will have a maximum of 30 potential points left on the table meaning the best they can finish with is 97 points.  

The accepted cut off for making the post season over the past several years has been right around the 93 points, meaning the Oilers would have to win 11 to 12 of their last 15 games to make the cut, which even the most die hard Oiler fan would admit is not likely. 

There is reason to believe that the cutoff could be three or four points lower this year thanks to a serious log jam right now in the West.

Only 11 points separate the 6th and 15th spots, and 3 teams are tied for 8th at 74 points. 

With Colorado losing young star Marek Svatos due to a season-ending injury, as well as probably losing Ryan Smyth for the season after his separated shoulder and concussion, the chances of the Avalanche being able to play much more than .500 hockey is unlikely even with Forsberg back in a Colorado uniform. 

With 16 games remaining,  that means the Avs will likely finish with seven wins for a total of 14 points, which would bring them to 88 points and could very well be the cutoff for the last spot in the West. 

Meanwhile, the Vancouver Canucks have started to sputter down the home stretch, with a tough loss in overtime to the Blue Jackets and a 4-1 whalloping from the Blackhawks on Sunday

They also have a tough schedule, including three games against the Flames, two against the Wild, two against Edmonton, and three against Colorado.   

Roberto Luongo is the key for a team that struggles offensively, and the Canucks playoff hopes clearly rest with his play. 

With 17 games left in the season, they have a one game in hand luxury, which could make a big difference when all is said and done. 

Let's put their predicted point production at 18, which is slightly better than .500. This is based on their interdivisional schedule and nine remaining road games, which would give them 92 points after their last game against Calgary on April 5th.  

Resting in between the Oilers and playoff contention is the Predators, the Coyotes, Blue Jackets and Blackhawks.  All five teams are in roughly the same boat right now, nursing injuries and depleted lineups. 

The Predators are the main wild card as they hold down 9th spot, but really are tied for 8th with 74 points, and have 16 games left.  

Nine of those remaining games are on the road, with four games against the powerful Detroit Red Wings, who are determined not to go into the playoffs on a slide.

Taking their current road record into account (13-15), we can predict that they will win four of their last nine road games, and three of their last six home games for a total of 14 points and a final season total of 88 points. 

This means that the Oilers are looking at having to get to the 89 point mark to slip into the last playoff spot.

This means that they will have to win 11 of their last 15 games, including the vital games against the teams they are chasing, which is tough, but not impossible. 

The variable here to consider is that the Oilers have three games against Colorado and two games remaining against the Canucks, including their last game of the year in Vancouver. 

Another point of consideration is that the Oilers also play five games against non-playoff bound teams, but will face their toughest challenge in a home and home series against the Wild at the end of March, a team the Oilers have not fared well against this season.

Their schedule also includes nine games on the road where they are 12-16 this year.

Non-Oiler fans will clearly be able to find holes in this formula, but Edmonton die-hard believers can still see a glimmer of hope, knowing that the Oilers can afford to lose 4 games before they will be more or less officially eliminated from playoff contention.