Every NFL Team's Realistic Best-Case Scenario Outcome in 2012

We are in the doldrums of the offseason—if you can believe that with news like Jonathan Vilma's lawsuit and Ed Reed's potential retirement coming out on a regular basis—making this a good time to pause and evaluate teams.

What is each team's best case scenario for the upcoming season? Obviously, health will be key to any team, so that is a given in these scenarios. We will also operate within the bounds of reason—every team's best-case scenario is an undefeated season and a Super Bowl win.

Arizona Cardinals

2011 Record: 8-8

After parlaying Kurt Warner's twilight into a Super Bowl appearance and another playoff berth, things have not been too peachy for the Arizona Cardinals. They won just six of their next 17 games with the likes of Derek Anderson, John Skelton and Kevin Kolb at the helm.

Arizona quietly turned things around mid-season, however, going 7-2 to close out the season, finishing just one game worse than eventual the Super Bowl champion New York Giants.

Kolb and Skelton will reprise their roles from a year ago, and whether they can get the job done is a big question mark for this young team. Lucky for them, they have Larry Fitzgerald in his prime and a promising rookie in Michael Floyd to throw to.

The Cardinals also needed to shore up the offensive line, and they hope to have done that in the draft by taking Bobbie Massie, Senio Kelemete and Nate Potter.

Their best case scenario is John Skelton winning the starting job and finally developing into a solid starter and having the defense mature into a stellar unit. 

Best-Case 2012 Prediction: 10-6

Atlanta Falcons

2011 Record: 10-6

It's time.

The Falcons have been building up to this. Matt Ryan has taken this team to the playoffs thrice only to fall to the eventual Super Bowl representative for the NFC.

Atlanta is very much in "win now" mode after trading away much of this year's draft for Julio Jones last year and Asante Samuel. With the clock ticking on veterans Michael Turner and Tony Gonzalez, Ryan must take his game to the next level.

The Saints are reeling from the bounty scandal, the Bucs are a reclamation project for Greg Schiano and the Panthers are still up-and-coming. There may not be a better opportunity for the Falcons to seize. 

Hitting on all cylinders, particularly come playoff time, is this team's best-case scenario.

Best-Case 2012 Prediction: 13-3

Baltimore Ravens

2011 Record: 12-4

For a split second, we all thought the Ravens had beaten the New England Patriots to make it to Super Bowl XLVI. The thought was extremely short-lived as Lee Evans dropped what would have been the game-winning touchdown pass from Joe Flacco in last season's AFC Championship game.

The Ravens have all the ingredients to make another run at a Super Bowl appearance. Flacco is as confident as ever, and the defense should be great once again, despite the absence of Terrell Suggs.

Could the top two quarterbacks from the 2008 draft find themselves dueling in the Super Bowl? There is certainly a good chance.

It will only happen if Baltimore's defense can continue to be elite and Joe Flacco's play catches up to his confidence.

Best-Case 2012 Prediction: 13-3

Buffalo Bills

2011 Record: 6-10

Here come the Bills.

There is serious hope in upstate New York these days, and the Bills have everything to do with it.

After an offseason that saw them land a marquee free agent in Mario Williams and retain Stevie Johnson—not to mention signing Mark Anderson to bookend Williams, re-signing Fred Jackson and having a great draft—Buffalo is abuzz with belief.

Even if Ryan Fitzpatrick has reached his ceiling, there is plenty to look forward to from the Bills. The serious upgrade on defense will be the biggest factor in turning around this once four-time Super Bowl losing franchise.

They still need to make it out of the gauntlet in the AFC East.

Gauntlets are made to be conquered, though, and the Bills can do it if the defense lives up to its billing. If the front four can take the pressure off the improved secondary, the Bills will not have to rely on Fitzpatrick so heavily. A great two-headed monster at running back should help as well.

Best-Case 2012 Prediction: 10-6

Carolina Panthers

2011 Record: 6-10

Does Superman have an encore in mind?

Cam Newton stormed the league, rushing for 14 touchdowns, an NFL record at quarterback. He did not win many games in the process, however.

According to NFL.com, the Panthers were 28th in total defense and 27th in scoring defense last year, largely the reason why they only won six games. They got better as the season wore on, though, allowing just 21.8 points per game in their final six games, a 4-2 stretch to end the season.

Luke Kuechly should help, though the Panthers are also getting injured linebacker Jon Beason back.

If Cam Newton can avoid a sophomore swoon and the defense can get even better, the Panthers have a good shot at second place in the division.

Best-Case 2012 Prediction: 10-6

Chicago Bears

2011 Record: 8-8

The NFC North is stacked, and the Bears know it. Aside from lowly Minnesota—which should be somewhat better than last season—Chicago has to contend with the likes of the juggernaut Green Bay Packers and the up-and-coming Detroit Lions, both playoff teams from last season.

Chicago has reason to hope for the playoffs themselves, however. They were in the hunt until Jay Cutler went down with injury, still finishing a respectable 8-8. They have only gotten better on offense.

Led by ageless Brian Urlacher, their defense should be good enough as well. By adding Shea McClellin to pair with Julius Peppers, they should be able to generate a great pass rush.

If Cutler rekindles his magic with Brandon Marshall and the defense plays up to its potential, the Bears will be a serious challenger for the NFC North crown. They will not win it, but they will be in it until the bitter end with a playoff trip as a consolation.

Best-Case 2012 Prediction: 12-4

Cincinnati Bengals

2011 Record: 9-7

Perhaps the biggest surprise of last season were the Cincinnati Bengals led by second-round rookie Andy Dalton. Though they did not make the playoffs in a pretty fashion at 9-7, they defied expectations to get there.

Is Dalton in for a regression or can the Bengals hope to build on their success?

Their best-case scenario is a step forward for Andy Dalton and continued good play from the defense. They may not win the AFC North, but they can make the playoffs again.

Best-Case 2012 Prediction: 11-5

Cleveland Browns

2011 Record: 4-12

The immediate future of Cleveland hinges on the arm of a 28-year-old rookie.

Whether you think age matters or not, the Browns selected Brandon Weeden with the 22nd pick of the draft, their second pick in the first round. They will have you believe he was a fallback after they missed out on Kendall Wright, but I had been speculating they were onto Weeden for weeks.

At any rate, he gets to hand the ball off to fellow rookie stud Trent Richardson much of the time, which will help take the pressure off him at quarterback. Can he transition to a pro offense and adjust quickly enough to help the Browns this season?

In their best-case scenario, yes, though it will not amount to better than a fourth place finish in the tough AFC North.

Best-Case 2012 Prediction: 8-8

Dallas Cowboys

2011 Record: 8-8

Defensive coordinator Rob Ryan placed the blame on himself for his team's defensive struggles last season. 

Personnel-wise, they took a step in the right direction by trading up to snag the consensus top cornerback in the draft class, Morris Claiborne. He and new acquisition Brandon Carr will immediately provide an upgrade over Terrence Newman, who was simply not very good last season.

Of course, the bigger question is whether Tony Romo can finally take his game to the next level. He continues to be plagued by late-game gaffes and failures that have haunted him and his team over the years. He needs to step up this season and be a true leader, otherwise he could find this to be his last rodeo in Dallas. 

Best-Case 2012 Prediction: 11-5

Denver Broncos

2011 Record: 8-8

John Elway won his Super Bowls at the ages of 37 and 38. Peyton Manning is 35, and he is a better quarterback.

Granted, the future Hall-of-Famer is coming back from serious neck surgery, meaning we have no idea how good he can be once he puts the pads on.

Everything rides on the new Bronco, though. Without Manning, Denver will be forced to choose between Caleb Hanie and rookie project Brock Osweiler.

It is true, all teams' best-case scenarios involve relative health, but in Manning's case, it is vital. If he can stay healthy, the Broncos can win the AFC West.

Best-Case 2012 Prediction: 12-4

Detroit Lions

2011 Record: 10-6

Madden Curses be damned, the Detroit Lions are poised to terrorize NFL defenses once again.

Matthew Stafford is 23 years old, making him one of the youngest quarterbacks in the league. He threw for 5,038 yards last season, just the fourth quarterback to break the 5,000-yard barrier (though three of them broke it in 2011-2012).

Granted, a lot of that had to do with Calvin Johnson, the best receiver in the league. Megatron will be key to Stafford and Detroit's success this year, making fans nervous that he is the Madden poster boy this time around.

Have no fear, Detroit fans, curses do not work on highly evolved robots. At least in this year's best-case scenario.

Best-Case 2012 Prediction: 12-4

Green Bay Packers

2011 Record: 15-1

The Packers seemed to carry over their momentum from their Super Bowl victory into last season, setting the league ablaze and threatening to go undefeated until they ran into Kansas City, of all teams.

With a cast that is returning most of its personnel on offense and a defense that is seemingly improved after the draft, the Packers are simply reloaded and ready to make another run at a title.

Their best-cast scenario is another Super Bowl victory. In fact, anything less would be a bit of a disappointment.

Best-Case 2012 Prediction: 15-1

Houston Texans

2011 Record: 10-6

Making the playoffs was a balm for the Texans after dealing with Andre Johnson's nagging injuries and losing Matt Schaub for the season. Trouncing the Bengals with sixth-round quarterback T.J. Yates at the helm was sweet.

He was no match for the Ravens defense the following week, but last season marked the first time Houston had ever won the division and made the playoffs, and they are primed for bigger things.

Despite losing Mario Williams in free agency and trading away injured linebacker DeMecco Ryans, the Texans have a good, young defense. 

On offense they have the ability to play smash-mouth football with Arian Foster and Ben Tate and air it out with Schaub, Johnson, and Owen Daniels. 

Putting it all together is their best-case for this season. The question is whether they can do it in the playoffs against the grizzled veterans in Baltimore, New England or Pittsburgh.

Best-Case 2012 Prediction: 13-3

Indianapolis Colts

2011 Record: 2-14

Rock bottom has been achieved. The only way is up.

The Colts took their first post-Manning step forward by selecting Andrew Luck with the first overall pick in the draft. They took several other steps forward on offense by taking Coby Fleener, Dwayne Allen, T.Y. Hilton, Vick Ballard and Lavon Brazil. 

Who will play defense, you ask?

Good question.

The truth of the matter is the Colts are rebuilding so much that they can afford to focus on the offense this year. Defensive tackle Josh Chapman was their only real defensive addition of note in the draft, and he is coming off ACL surgery. 

To be honest, their real best-case scenario would involve grabbing another high draft pick. Since we are talking about records, though, they do have a shot at threatening .500 if Luck plays better than Peyton Manning did during his rookie season.

Best-Case 2012 Prediction: 7-9

Jacksonville Jaguars

2011 Record: 5-11

I wonder if Shahid Khan expected Gene Smith to draft a punter with the third round draft pick they could have offered for Tim Tebow.

The Jaguars defense quietly ranked sixth in total defense and 11th in scoring defense last year. They retained Jeremy Mincey and drafted Andre Branch to rush the passer from the other side.

If Blaine Gabbert can defy the low expectations and the defense can continue to play well, the Jaguars might be a pleasant surprise this season.

Best-Case 2012 Prediction: 9-7

Kansas City Chiefs

2011 Record: 7-9

Healthy knees.

That is the prayer in Kansas City going into the season.

After a surprising playoff appearance after the 2010 season, the Chiefs crashed back down to earth badly. The season soured early with devastating knee injuries to offensive MVP Jamaal Charles and defensive stud Eric Berry.

The Chiefs are back on the right track with Romeo Crennel running things. Their best case scenario is a stout defense and a strong running game with Charles and Peyton Hillis. 

Best-Case 2012 Prediction: 11-5

Miami Dolphins

2011 Record: 6-10

Jeff Ireland's seat is smoldering.

The Dolphins appear to be the laughingstock of the NFL after an offseason that saw them whiff on Jeff Fisher, lose the Peyton Manning sweepstakes, then seemingly get snubbed by Matt Flynn, trade away Brandon Marshall for a mid-round pick, and apparently reach on Tannehill according to some experts.

After all the negativity, it seems like the Dolphins are doomed to a top-three draft pick. Is that really the case?

Miami returns 10 starters from a sixth-ranked scoring defense, although they will be running a new defense under Kevin Coyle. They may not have big names in the receiving corps, but there is enough on the offensive side to be competitive.

Miami's best-case scenario is having Matt Moore keep Ryan Tannehill's seat warm as a starter while the rookie learns, and having a strong running game and solid defense carry the team. 

Best-Case 2012 Prediction: 9-7

Minnesota Vikings

2011 Record: 4-12

Everything ride on All Day.

The Vikings took a tumble last season, extending their hangover from Brett Favre's NFC Championship loss for another season. 

If Peterson cannot make it back and be effective, the Vikings might find themselves in some trouble. They are returning a 31st-ranked scoring defense. That will make things a bit more difficult.

Their best-case scenario involves a healthy ACL, a developing Christian Ponder, and an overachieving defense. In the brutal NFC North, getting to .500 will be a feat.

Best-Case 2012 Prediction: 8-8

New England Patriots

2011 Record: 14-2

The Patriots are restocked and reloaded after another Super Bowl appearance. 

Despite running into a formidable Giants pass rush—a.k.a. Tom Brady's kryptonite—in their past two Super Bowl appearances, the Patriots are a perennial contender like no other. As long as Brady and Bill Belichick are a team, the Patriots will be a Super Bowl contender. Well, perhaps until Brady hits his 40s.

There is no reason to believe this team will win less than 11 games this season. Getting back to 14 victories might be tougher sledding for them, however. One of their losses from last season came at the hands of the Bills, and they are much improved.

New England improved their own defense, though, drafting Chandler Jones and Dont'a Hightower in the first round. If they can get back to playing at a high level, combining them with that prolific offense will be a deadly combination for the NFL.

Best-Case 2012 Prediction: 14-2

New Orleans Saints

2011 Record: 13-3

Making a prediction on the Saints' record is probably the biggest crapshoot there is right now. Not only does the fallout from the bounty scandal permeate the organization, but Drew Brees is not signed to a long-term deal and leaves his franchise tender unsigned.

New Orleans has the ingredients to make a playoff run, but are they ready to handle the season without their coach and leader? Will there be negative psychological effects from this offseason? 

Even if the team can get some positive traction by finally signing Brees to a long-term deal, this season could be bad. Still, it is hard to believe the Saints will not win at least eight games with Brees at the helm.

If anyone can shrug this all off, though, it is Brees. The Saints go as Brees goes, and he could still take them to great heights.

Best-Case 2012 Prediction: 12-4

New York Jets

2011 Record: 8-8

What do you do with a quarterback with a career 55.3 percent completion rate and whose yards-per-attempt has dropped each season in the league to a low of 6.40 last season? Bring in a quarterback who completes 46.5 percent of his passes, of course.

The quarterback circus aside, the Jets have some serious questions on offense. After Plaxico Burress' age-defying season they drafted talented-but-raw Stephen Hill. LaDainian Tomlinson is about to retire, and the offensive line still features Wayne Hunter, Pro Football Focus' fifth-worst offensive tackle from a year ago.

At least the defense should still be great.

The Jets are almost as much of a crapshoot as New Orleans for entirely different reasons. They have held things together in recent years thanks to a stellar defense, timely good play from Sanchez on occasion, and good fortune. The volatility the latter two of those things offers could be a problem.

New York should still win at least seven games, and they could threaten for a playoff spot. The AFC East got a lot tougher this offseason with a much-improved Bills team, however, so it will be a dogfight.

If Sanchez can take that next step, they will be a playoff contender.

Best-Case 2012 Prediction: 10-6

New York Giants

2011 Record: 9-7

The defending champs will open up the season with a facelift mostly thanks to a good draft. Did the rich get richer?

To be fair, the Giants got hot at the right time, much like in 2007. They were fortunate to make it to the playoffs with a 9-7 record and took it from there. 

This season should be a little different. With Eli Manning officially entering the ranks of the elite, and a perennially good defense, the sky is the limit for the Giants. Or 12 victories.

Best-Case 2012 Prediction: 12-4

Oakland Raiders

2011 Record: 8-8

A new era has begun in the East Bay, and Reggie McKenzie is here to pilot the ship amidst turbulent waters.

With San Francisco's sudden return to prominence across the Bay Bridge, the Raiders have some catching up to do. They find themselves behind the eight ball, however, even after narrowly missing the playoffs with an 8-8 record.

Oakland ranked 29th in both scoring and total defense last season, and they have not improved their personnel on that side of the ball. 

Offensively, if Carson Palmer can shake off the rust with a full offseason, they have a shot to carry that defense. With Darren McFadden back and a deep receiving corps, Palmer will have plenty of weapons. He just needs to avoid the costly turnovers.

Best-Case 2012 Prediction: 8-8

Philadelphia Eagles

2011 Record: 8-8

Can they be the "Dream Team" without Vince Young?

In all seriousness, the lofty expectations burdening the Eagles last season have been tempered after missing the playoffs, but they are in a much better position for a run at a Super Bowl this year.

The Eagles have shored up the middle of their defense by trading for DeMeco Ryans and drafting Fletcher Cox and Mychal Kendricks. They also mitigated the loss of Jason Peters by signing Demetress Bell. 

With the defense seemingly improved and an always-dangerous offense featuring Michael Vick and LeSean McCoy, I expect big things from Philadelphia. They should win a minimum of 10 games and seriously challenge the Giants for the NFC East championship.

Best-Case 2012 Prediction: 13-3

Pittsburgh Steelers

2011 Record: 12-4

The Steelers made the playoffs with a hobbled Ben Roethlisberger and lost in the first round because they dared Tim Tebow to throw the ball one too many times. They had just lost Rashard Mendenhall for the playoffs and possibly 2012 season as well, though some might argue that losing him was not exactly a bad thing.

Then the 2012 draft happened and the other 31 teams stepped aside and allowed the Steelers to draft David Decastro, one of this year's best offensive line prospects, with the 24th pick.

If the improved line gels and plays well together, Isaac Redman should find plenty of running room, and Ben Roethlisberger may not have to worry about getting trampled every other play.

Best-Case 2012 Prediction: 12-4

San Diego Chargers

2011 Record: 8-8

This has to be Norv Turner's last stand.

After failing to make the playoffs last season, many including myself thought that was the end for Turner in San Diego. He was given a lifeline by A.J. Smith, however, and returns to try his hand at the whole head coaching business one more time.

Most of the team's success will hinge on Philip Rivers, who did not look like himself for much of last season. If he can return to form, the Chargers should win the AFC West.

Best-Case 2012 Prediction: 12-4

San Francisco 49ers

2011 Record: 13-3

We never saw the 49ers coming last season, but rest assured the league knows about them now.

After being a couple of bounces away from a Super Bowl berth, Jim Harbaugh and his team suddenly find themselves carrying the burden of expectations. 

The defense should be stout once again led by Patrick Willis, NaVorro Bowman and Justin Smith. The offense is stocked with some new weapons for Alex Smith in Randy Moss, A.J. Jenkins and even rookie running back LaMichael James.

Of course, the NFC West is not the pushover it was a season ago. The Seahawks have a good defense of their own, the Rams landed Jeff Fisher and a mountain of draft picks, and the Cardinals are dangerous with Larry Fitzgerald and a good, young defense of their own.

Chances are Alex Smith does not throw just five interceptions again either.

I expect the 49ers to be good again, but less so than a season ago. If all goes well, they should win the NFC West anyway.

Best-Case 2012 Prediction: 12-4

Seattle Seahawks

2011 Record: 7-9

Speaking of the NFC Wild West, the Seahawks are primed to pull what San Francisco did a year ago.

Seattle boasts a young and dangerous defense and Mr. Skittles himself, Marshawn Lynch, whom they just locked up to a long-term contract. They have an underrated receiving corps that, when healthy, will be a boon to whoever starts at quarterback.

And that is the rub.

Who will be Seattle's starting quarterback come Week 1? Conventional wisdom says newly acquired Matt Flynn should be that guy, but he is mired in a three-way competition for the job with Tarvaris Jackson and third-round rookie Russell Wilson.

If the Seahawks settle on the right quarterback and that defense continues to improve, they will give the 49ers a run for their money.

Best-Case 2012 Prediction: 10-6

St. Louis Rams

2011 Record: 2-14

The Rams were supposed to be better last year after narrowly missing the playoffs in 2010. The opposite was true. 

Granted, the defensive secondary resembled a M.A.S.H. unit and Sam Bradford's receivers may have been wearing oven mitts half the time.

Never fear, Jeff Fisher is here.

The former Houston and Tennessee stalwart took his coaching talents to the Midwest and promises to turn things around. It could happen sooner than later if everything clicks.

Best-Case 2012 Prediction: 9-7

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

2011 Record: 4-12

Raheem Morris has been exiled. Enter rookie head coach Greg Schiano.

The Buccaneers were a pleasant surprise in 2010 behind the arm of Josh Freeman, going 10-6 and narrowly missing the playoffs. Freeman's major regression last season coupled with the team's waning desire to play for Morris doomed them, however.

It is tough to gauge the Bucs based on last season because they did not play up to their potential. If Freeman bounces back and the defense takes a step forward, they should be competitive in the NFC South. It might be tough to make the playoffs even then, though, with all the good teams in the NFC.

Best-Case 2012 Prediction: 10-6

Tennessee Titans

2011 Record: 9-7

Perhaps they will have a better season now that the Titans need not worry about a contract holdout from their best player.

Jake Locker is still behind Matt Hasselbeck on the depth chart, but he flashed his ability in limited duty last season and should see the field more this season. He is their future, after all.

Tennessee was eighth in scoring-defense last season. They lost Cortland Finnegan, but they gained Kamerion Wimbley. While that may be like comparing apples to bananas, the Titans should field a good defense next season.

They could be good enough for a playoff bid if Jake Locker takes the reins early and plays well, Chris Johnson returns to form, and the defense holds its own.

Best-Case 2012 Prediction: 10-6

Washington Redskins

2011 Record: 5-11

Washington D.C. has been searching for a marquee quarterback longer than Miami. They finally found one.

Nineteen years after Super Bowl-winning quarterback Mark Rypien last suited up for the Redskins, Robert Griffin III will take the field, and expectations could scarcely be higher for the rookie out of Baylor.

What has Washington done to help the young quarterback? Quite a bit.

Griffin is surrounded with good, young talent to help him transition to the NFL and take advantage of his skills. If he can live up to Cam Newton's rookie ghost and the defense improves, the Redskins will make waves. That is a tall order for Mike Shanahan, but the Redskins are moving in a good direction.

Best-Case 2012 Prediction: 9-7