Roberto Luongo as a Toronto Maple Leaf: A Data-Supported Case for the Move

While hockey fans speculate Roberto Luongo’s future with the Vancouver Canucks, I’m going to do a comprehensive analysis of the case of Luongo going to the Leafs.

This article does not offer details about the approach, but I hope this will inspire my readers to think about Luongo in a different manner. The aspects analyzed in this article are, in order of importance:

1)      Mental strength
2)      Age
3)      Consistency
4)      Contract
5)      Salary
6)      Externality

1) The Net-MIND-der

The goaltender on a hockey team plays a different game than the rest of the team. While everyone else tries to get the pucks into a net, the goaltender does whatever it takes to keep it out.

Goaltenders playing in the Toronto market face an even bigger challenge—mental pressure from the fans, management and the media. Mental stability is the most important asset for a goalie suited to playing for the Blue and White.

Look no further than Raycroft and Toskala to see why even decent goalies become mediocre once they play this market.

Roberto Luongo lacks the mentality to perform. He has failed to come up with big saves in key moments. While many praise Luongo as a great goalie by citing his performance at the 2010 Winter Olympics, keep in mind that he did let in the tying goal that put Canada in OT.

Though we saw improvements in Luongo’s game in the season following his Gold Medal at the Olympics, not much has changed in the Stanley Cup playoffs. Luongo fails to make key saves in key moments. In Toronto, the pressure to perform is as high as ever.  Luongo is not fitted to play for the Leafs.

However, mental stability seems to improve with experience. Goalies who have had success in the oronto market in the last decade are Cujo and Belfour; both were in their early 30s when they joined the Leafs. Luongo fits that profile. He just turned 33 last April.

2) Consistency

Consistency of the goaltender has been haunting the Leafs during the last seven years. When it comes to Luongo, consistency is not an issue.

His goals against average and save percentage are excellent in the regular season, regardless of his team. With the addition of mental pressure, however, “playoff-Luongo” is not quite the same as “regular-season-Luongo”.

Statistics, courtesy of TSN.ca

Year	Team	League	GP	W	L	OT	Min.	GA	SA	GAA	PCT	SO
2011-12	Vancouver	NHL	55	31	14	8	3162	127	1577	2.41	.919	5
2010-11	Vancouver	NHL	60	38	15	7	3590	126	1753	2.11	.928	4
2009-10	Vancouver	NHL	68	40	22	4	3899	167	1915	2.57	.913	4
2009-10	Canada	Olympic	5	5	0	-	308	9	123	1.76	.927	1
2008-09	Vancouver	NHL	54	33	13	7	3181	124	1542	2.34	.920	9
2007-08	Vancouver	NHL	73	35	29	9	4233	168	2029	2.38	.917	6
2006-07	Vancouver	NHL	76	47	22	6	4490	171	2169	2.29	.921	5
2005-06	Florida	NHL	75	35	30	9	4305	213	2488	2.97	.914	4
2005-06	Canada	Olympic	2	1	1	-	119	3	42	1.51	.929	0
2004-05	Canada	W-Cup	1	1	0	-	64	3	40	2.82	-	0
2004-05	Canada	WC	2	1	0	-	120	3	43	1.50	-	1
2004-05	Did not play	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2003-04	Florida	NHL	72	25	33	-	4252	172	2475	2.43	.931	7
2003-04	Canada	WC	7	5	1	-	440	17	-	2.32	-	1
2002-03	Florida	NHL	65	20	34	-	3627	164	2011	2.71	.918	6
2002-03	Canada	WC	4	-	-	-	212	7	100	1.98	-	1
2001-02	Florida	NHL	58	16	33	-	3030	140	1653	2.77	.915	4
2000-01	Florida	NHL	47	12	24	-	2628	107	1333	2.44	.920	5

3) The Age Factor

Goaltenders belong in a class of their own. When it comes analysing a goalie, Leafs management should not be discouraged by age.

A goalie’s hockey career is longer than players’ beacuse their bodies go through fewer bumps and bruises and less wear and tear during their career.

Veteran goalies such as Tim Thomas, Dwayne Roloson and Dominik Hasek have been key factors in their club’s playoff success despite their age. A more important factor to consider is the severity of injuries a goalie has had.

Goalies who appeared in the Stanley Cup final in the last decade are:

Year	Goalie (Champion)	Age	Injury	Goalie (Finalist)	Age	Injury
2000	Brodeur	28	1	Belfour	35	0
2001	Roy	35	3	Brodeur	29	1
2002	Hasek	36	5	Irbe	35	0
2003	Brodeur	31	1	Giguere	25	5
2004	Khabibulin	32	0	Kipprusoff	28	28
2005
2006	Ward	22	0	Roloson	36	2
2007	Giguere	29	25	Emery	25	4
2008	Osgood	35	53	Fleury	23	39
2009	Fleury	24	39	Osgood	36	54
2010	Niemi	27	0	Boucher	34	31
2011	Thomas	37	6	Luongo	32	54

The data above shows that older goalies are capable of high level performance if they have been healthy in prior years. Of course, this analysis assumes a positive relationship between the length of injury and its severity.

The exceptions are Osgood and Boucher. Osgood played for a nearly invincible Detroit Red Wings squad, and Boucher played on a team that struggled to find a No. 1 goalie.

The above is a rough analysis. Leafs management should take a step further to study Luongo’s injury history to decide a more accurate trade value

4) Contractual Matters

When it comes to signing players, Brian Burke has been clear that he will not do front-loaded, long-term contracts. Let’s take a look at Luongo’s contract.

Age	31	32	33*	34	35	36	37	38	39	40	41/42
Salary	$10M	$6.7M	$6.7M	$6.7M	$6.7M	$6.7M	$6.7M	$6.7M	$3.4	$1.6M	$1.0M

Front-loaded, long-term contracts like this are exactly the type Brian Burke will not engineer. However, does this mean he will not take one of them? No.

To understand this, we need to understand “why” Burke doesn’t like this type of contract. After the Leafs lost on Richards sweepstake, Burke had this to say about FLLT contracts:

“These deals that are front-loaded and have small amounts at the back end, in my opinion, are designed to circumvent the salary cap… I won’t do them, I never have, I’m not going to…That’s not a contract structure we’re interested in.”

We know that Burke is a man of principle. It is against his principle to offer such a contract; however, it is not against his principle to take on an existing contract. Furthermore, by the time Vancouver trades Luongo, his contract is no longer front-loaded.

Luongo will have five years at $6.7 million, and the deal gradually drops to $1.0 million over three years. This type of contract is common.

5) Money matters

Leafs have the money. No biggie.

6) Externalities

As a GM, Brian Burke runs the team on an “asset management” model. Besides his hockey skills, does Luongo bring anything more?

For the Leafs to consider him, Luongo will need to be more than just a goalie. He'll also need to be a mentor to Reimer, Gustavsson (if he resigns), Scrivens and the rest of the crew.

Although he was stripped of the “C”, as a former captain, Luongo nevertheless possesses the leadership skills to help the young Leafs. Luongo will have to do the hard work to prove himself in the new club.

Lastly, what price should the Leafs pay if they were to trade for Luongo?

I’ll discuss the answer to that question next time, as well as talk about Leaf’s trading strategy.

**The author is an economic analyst**
[e-mail]