NHL Playoffs 2012: 5 Reasons to Believe the Capitals Can Come Back

The Washington Capitals had no business winning Game 5 of their series with the New York Rangers.

So why does the Game 5 loss sting as badly as any loss in Capitals playoff history?

The stunning turn of events in the final 25 seconds of regulation turned cause for celebration into complete dejection, because even though the Caps had no business even being in the game at that point, they should have won anyway.

I know that sounds a bit like rambling, but for those who watched it all go down, they know what I mean.

Where do the Capitals go from here? How do they somehow pick themselves up off the canvas, again, after an arguably more gut-wrenching defeat than the Game 3 triple-overtime thriller?

The good news, if there is any, is that the Capitals are still alive.

Yes, the Rangers won Game 5.

Yes, the Rangers lead the series 3-2.

Yes, the Rangers seem to have all the momentum in the world.

But they haven't won this series, not yet.

The Capitals have accomplished so much this postseason, more than anyone could have imagined. 

It is tempting to say "stick a fork in them because they're done" after Game 5—but they are not done, not at all.

The Capitals can still come back and not just take Game 6, but the entire series as well.

And here are five reasons why.

1. Home Sweet Home

Perhaps the best thing going for the Caps in Game 6 is that they are playing at home before some of the most raucous fans anywhere in the NHL.

"Rock The Red" is not just a slogan for Capitals fans—it's a way of life.

If the Rangers are coming into Washington and expecting the crowd to be dejected because of Game 5, then they will find themselves on the business end of a first period beating like they received in Game 4—the same type of first period they themselves delivered in Game 5.

The home team has been far from perfect in this series, but the fans in both venues are so passionate that it is clear they are giving their respective teams a great deal of increased energy, particularly in the first 20 minutes.

This is where the Caps must strike in Game 6. They must feed off of what should be an electric crowd at Verizon Center, get that first goal (especially since they are 0-5 in the playoffs when the other team scores first) and then get a two-goal lead, or more.

Neither team has broken away from the other in this series, with both having enjoyed a two-goal lead only once through the entire series.

What the Caps have to know is that they are long overdue to really break out on an opponent here in the playoffs. They may be a No. 7 seed, but they have all the offensive weapons to score four or five goals, even against a star like Henrik Lundqvist.

It may be a bit risky to steer away from the defensive style of hockey that has worked so well for them, but I think the Caps need to ride the home ice advantage for all it is worth in that first 20 minutes, try and put a couple past Lundqvist, and then clamp down hard.

In the Boston series, and in this one, the Caps came through at home when they absolutely had to.

There is no reason to think they can't come through again.

2. The Rangers' Aggression Keeps Creating Opportunities

Through five games of this series, the Rangers have been the more aggressive of the two teams. This has been particularly true with their forechecking, which has caused all sorts of problems for the Capitals.

However, the Blue Shirts' aggression has also left them exposed on quite a number of odd-man opportunities for the Caps.

So far, the Caps have not made the Rangers pay for this, with Henrik Lundqvist standing tall in the face of these opportunities for the most part.

In Game 3, the Caps had at least three odd-man rushes and Lundqvist stopped them all. Notably, his save on Brooks Laich on a Caps three-on-one was a key reason the Rangers ultimately won that marathon.

In Game 5, his stop on Jason Chimera on what became a three-on-two early in the first period kept the game scoreless and enabled the Rangers to continue to dictate play throughout the first period.

Still, if the Rangers are going to continue to play as aggressively as they have been, and continue to give the Caps golden scoring opportunities, the snipers on the Caps will eventually make them pay. The law of averages would seem to dictate as much.

The most likely suspect here would be Alexander Semin, who has seemed to be on the cusp of a goal throughout the entire series. 

Alexander Ovechkin is always dangerous in those types of situations as well.

As good as Lundqvist has been, I suspect he would be the first to tell you that giving repeated odd-man opportunities to the Capitals is like playing with fire.

For the Rangers, they almost have no choice but to continue to play aggressively, as lying back and letting the Caps bring the game to them would likely end with dreadful results. So, the opportunities for Washington should be there in Game 6.

For the Caps to even the series, they must make the Rangers pay for their mistakes and make the most of their opportunities.

3. The Caps Luck Is Due to Change

I suspected that the Caps had been the unluckier of the two teams in this series. To be sure, I went back and looked at the highlights of all five games so far just to see how many posts and crossbars the two teams had hit.

The Caps have hit iron six times in this series, three in Game 1 alone. None of those shots has deflected in off the iron.

Alex Ovechkin's shot off the post in overtime of Game 3, had it deflected in, would have shifted the dynamics of the series entirely.

Meanwhile, the Rangers have struck iron four times. The big difference—one of those went in, and it just happened to be the biggest goal of the series.

A microcosm of the disparity in luck in this series was on full display in Game 5. With the Caps ahead 2-1, Nicklas Backstrom came in on a breakaway with 12:45 remaining in regulation. He struck the post and what would have surely been the last nail in the coffin bounced harmlessly away.

About 12 minutes and 38 seconds of game time later, Brad Richards pokes a puck under Braden Holtby's glove, past John Carlson, off the post and into the net for an improbable game-tying goal with just 6.6 seconds remaining.

Now, of course, it is better to be good than lucky. But any team that has ever won the Stanley Cup had a bit of good luck along the way.

The Caps have not been lucky so far. If even 25 percent of those shots that hit the post or crossbar goes in, the Caps would be ahead. For that matter, the series might even be over.

For the second time, I will reference the law of averages.

If it holds true for the Caps, it would certainly appear that their luck is due to change.

4. The Rangers Might Suffer an Emotional Letdown

As devastating as the Game 5 loss was for the Caps, it was the complete opposite for New York, perhaps even more so.

Conventional wisdom would seem to suggest that the Rangers have all the momentum, and that the Caps will just wilt under the heartbreak of such a crushing defeat.

I am not so sure about that.

If I were a Rangers fan, I would be a bit concerned about whether my team might have a letdown after such a huge emotional victory.

Sometime between now and Wednesday evening, the Rangers will come to realize something—that for all their heroics and the amazing comeback they pulled off, they still have not won the series quite yet.

After all that, they now have to go into Washington, raise their emotions and energy to a level that will match the Caps and be able to do what is necessary to eliminate a team that has been a thorn in their side for several years now.

There is no question that the Rangers are a talented team with a ton of heart.

We saw that against the Senators when they had to win the final two games to win that series.

We saw it during the final 25 seconds of Game 5 too.

Still, to go from the highest of highs and try and maintain that in Game 6 will be a challenge for New York.

It was a challenge they did not meet for the first 20 minutes of Game 4, after their equally classic Game 3 triple-overtime victory.

If they put forth a similar performance in the first 20 minutes of Game 6, and the Capitals can take advantage, then everything that happened in Game 5 will be nothing but a distant memory.

5. This Caps Team Has the Mental Toughness and Heart to Come Back

While prior versions of the Capitals have folded under the pressure of the playoffs like the proverbial "cheap suit", this year's Caps have shown a resiliency that, quite frankly, Caps fans did not believe they had.

It starts with their coach Dale Hunter. If you listened to his post-game interview yesterday, you had to be impressed.

He was not panicking. He was not complaining or lamenting what might have been if Richards shot have been a millimeter more to the right or any of that.

In a matter-of-fact kind of way, he just chalked everything up to it being a hockey play made in a hockey game. Nothing more...nothing less.

Hunter's demeanor carried over to Joel Ward, who has gone from savior in the Boston series to goat in this one. But he did not hide from the media after Game 5. He acknowledged his mistake, admitted he let the team down and took responsibility.

Ward did not have to do that but, in true stand-up fashion, he faced the music and faced it well.

It is not just words for the Caps though. Their actions throughout the playoffs have shown the heart and fight in this team.

Against Boston, they found a way to win Game 2 when it was not clear how they would even score.

They then won Game 4 to avoid being down 3-1.

In Game 5, they blew a two-goal lead and still managed to win.

In Game 7, they prevailed after having blown a golden opportunity to close the series out at home.

In this series with the Rangers, they have been equally brave.

They blew a two-goal lead in Game 2, but still found a way to win.

In Game 4, they put the disappointment of Game 3 behind them and were able to pull out the victory.

As disappointing as Game 5 was, no one believes the Caps will just give up in Game 6 and be content with the run they have had—especially the Rangers.

The 2012 version of the Washington Capitals do not know how to quit, and they won't do so in Game 6.

If they win, well, we already know anything is possible in Game 7.