NFL Free Agency: Odds Stars Without Long-Term Deals Hold out in Training Camp

The 2012 NFL draft has come and gone, and free agency will soon taper off. As teams begin to prepare for June minicamps, several NFL squads have clouds of uncertainty hanging over them.

These clouds are the result of star players refusing to sign their franchise tenders, creating the possibility of contentious contract holdouts that could extend into the summer.

The number of teams facing such a dilemma shrank by one on Monday when Oakland Raiders strong safety Tyvon Branch signed his tender, but a number of prominent players still remain in contractual limbo, including the NFL's single-season record holder for passing yards.

Here's the latest concerning the negotiations between these stars and their respective NFL clubs, including the odds that these situations might go from somewhat awkward to downright ugly.

Drew Brees, QB, New Orleans Saints

Although it's been pushed to the backburner somewhat by the fallout from "Bountygate," the fact remains that New Orleans Saints quarterback Drew Brees has yet to sign his franchise tender. And contrary to team owner Tom Benson's assertion that the Saints and Brees were "close" on a long-term extension, ESPN recently reported that that was not the case.

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The New Orleans Saints and quarterback Drew Brees are not any closer to a contract extension and have made little progress on a long-term deal, a person familiar with the negotiations told ESPN NFL Insider Adam Schefter.

Brees, who was tagged by the Saints as their franchise player, has not signed his one-year tender and has skipped the team's voluntary workouts to date.

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The 12th-year veteran, who set the NFL single-season passing yardage mark last season, remains adamant that he will not report to camp without a long-term deal.

Given the nightmarish offseason that the Saints have endured, it's unfathomable that Benson would allow the team to be dragged through the mud again in a nasty holdout. And with Brees seeming to hold all the cards in this situation, the smart money says that Brees will get his long-term deal in fairly short order.

Odds of a Holdout: 5 percent

Ray Rice, RB, Baltimore Ravens

After a 2011 season in which he topped 2,000 total yards, Baltimore Ravens running back Ray Rice is looking for both a significant raise and some long-term security from the team.

The $7.7 million franchise tender the Ravens extended to the fifth-year pro would provide the former, but it does nothing to address the latter.

Rice recently skipped the Ravens' first set of voluntary workouts, but as he recently told Jamison Hensley of ESPN, Rice hasn't completely closed the door on signing his tender and reporting.

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"We’re waiting to see what’s up [before signing the franchise tender],” Rice said recently. “We just have to figure out what’s best for me and my family right now. I want to be a part of the offseason program, I want to be a part of the team and obviously this works on both ends. I think progress is being made. I know things don’t happen overnight, but a lot of things can change in weeks, months, time. So when it happens, it happens.”

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There hasn't been much news recently regarding negotiations between Rice and the club, and while that may signify a lack of progress, it also signifies a lack of grousing or animosity by either side.

I'm guessing that one way or another, something will get done by the time mandatory workouts kick off next month.

Odds of a Holdout: 10 percent

Dwayne Bowe, WR, Kansas City Chiefs

Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver Dwayne Bowe posted his third 1,000-yard receiving season in four years in 2011, and while Bowe feels that that production warrants a lucrative extension, the Chiefs front office apparently disagrees, even though the team has ample cap space to allow for such a deal.

In fact, rumors recently swirled that the Chiefs were shopping Bowe for a potential trade, although Kansas City general manager Scott Pioli was quick to dispel that notion in a radio interview, according to ESPN's Bill Williamson:

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I fully expect Bowe to eventually sign his tender or sign an extension by the July deadline and be with the Chiefs this season. The fact that he is not going to the team’s organized team activities is really not that big of deal and common practice.

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Pioli's denial would seem to indicate that the sixth-year wideout is definitely in the team's plans for 2012. This is another instance where a progress report on the situation has been hard to come by, but it's hard to imagine that a Chiefs team looking for a bounce-back campaign won't do everything in its power to avoid a protracted and messy holdout.

Odds of a Holdout: 10 percent

Cliff Avril, DE, Detroit Lions

After playing last season on a one-year restricted free-agent tender that paid him just over $2.5 million, Detroit Lions defensive end Cliff Avril turned in the best season of his four-year career. He set career highs across the board, including leading all NFL defensive linemen with six forced fumbles.

Avril believed that performance was enough to net him a long-term deal that would pay him elite pass-rusher money.

The $10.6 million his franchise tender would pay in 2012 is nothing to sneeze at, but it doesn't present the future security that Avril seeks.

The 26-year-old out of Purdue recently told the Detroit Free Press that he's trying keep a positive attitude and set a good example for teammates, even as he passed on the team's recent voluntary workouts.

"I'm trying to be the guy that sets a good example, I guess, in a sense of trying to be here and wanting to be here and hopefully they can keep me here," he said.

However, the four-year, $49 million extension that defensive end Cameron Wake recently inked with the Miami Dolphins likely has Avril wondering why the Lions are so reluctant to treat him similarly, especially since Avril is four years younger.

There's still plenty of time to get something worked out before words like "mandatory" start getting kicked around, but at this point neither side appears willing to budge much, and this is the first player on this list that we could potentially see "officially" hit holdout status.

Odds of a Holdout: 25 percent

Wes Welker, WR, New England Patriots

New England Patriots wide receiver Wes Welker has been one of the most prolific pass-catchers in the NFL over the past five seasons, averaging over 110 receptions and 1,200 yards a year over that stretch.

The 31-year-old hoped to translate that success to one last big contract, but to this point the Patriots have balked at a long-term deal for the ninth-year pro.

Welker, as with every player on this list, skipped his team's recent voluntary workouts, and he recently relayed to ESPN Radio that he may skip mandatory workouts next month if no deal is reached. From the Boston Herald:

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“I’m not 100 percent sure on that. I don’t know if I will or not,” Welker told ESPN Boston Radio. ”I’m thinking I’m probably not going to (attend mandatory workouts), but things could change. We’ll just see how it all plays out.”

“I just feel that this was the best, really the only, leverage I had is to take this route,” he told ESPN Boston Radio. “It’s not a route I thought I’d ever take, just because that’s not me. It’s just kind of the spot I’ve been put in.”

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However, the Patriots have been known to take hardline stances in these instances in the past, such as with holdouts by cornerback Asante Samuel and offensive lineman Logan Mankins.

Given the plethora of wideouts New England added in free agency, if Welker digs his heels in, he may find himself locked in a battle of wills with a very stubborn Patriots front office.

Odds of a Holdout: 30 percent

Matt Forte, RB, Chicago Bears

Running back Matt Forte was the Chicago Bears offense for much of last season, as the fifth-year pro accounted for nearly half of the Bears' offensive production en route to racking up nearly 1,500 total yards before an MCL injury ended his season after 12 games.

That injury may be at least partially to blame for Chicago's reluctance to sign Forte to a long-term deal containing a significant amount of guaranteed money.

However, it was the first time in Forte's four pro seasons that he missed time, and the former Tulane star has topped that 1,400 total yards mark in each of his seasons in the NFL.

The lack of a long-term deal hasn't sat well with Forte, who was a no-show at the team's recent workouts, although at the time Chicago head coach Lovie Smith told the Chicago Sun-Times that Forte's absence was no huge cause for concern.

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‘‘I tell the guys, if you have an issue with your contract, [the offseason] is the time to work on those things. That’s what Matt is going through right now,’’ Smith said Tuesday before a luncheon at Maryville Academy to honor linebacker Brian Urlacher as the Bears’ Ed Block Courage Award winner.

‘‘We start up Monday. Hopefully he’ll be there. If he’s not, we’re going to go to work with the players we have.’’

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Unfortunately for Forte, the Bears made contingency plans for his absence in the meantime, signing former Oakland Raiders running back Michael Bush in free agency and re-upping reserve tailback Kahlil Bell.

The Bears would surely like to have their offensive linchpin from 2011 back in the fold, but at this point it appears that management holds most of the cards, leaving Forte with two equally unappealing options.

Cave, and play the 2012 season for $7.7 million, or dig in and prepare for a holdout that will likely not have the outcome Forte is hoping for.

Odds of a Holdout: 50 percent