English Premier League: Who Will Qualify for the Champions League?

Bimersha GautamCorrespondent IIIMay 6, 2012

English Premier League: Who Will Qualify for the Champions League?

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    Champions League football for English clubs next year poses quite a predicament.

    You have clubs like Tottenham Hotspur—genuine title-contenders at the turn of the New Year, Arsenal—who seemed to have turned around a truly miserable year, and Newcastle United—the underdog who has lit up the entire league. And then there is Chelsea.

    If somehow Chelsea seem to manage the impossible—beat a stupendous Bayern Munich team, who have only lost twice at home, at the grandest stage of them all—the forth placed team will have to make way for the men in Blue.

    Considering there are only a handful of games remaining, let us make a best case/worst case scenario for each of these teams. 

Arsenal

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    Arsenal are currently at third place, but in most likelihood, not for long.

    In an atrocious showing against Norwich, Arsenal were held to a 3-3 draw, and what seemed like imminent third place seems to be slipping away from the Gunners.

    They have a total of 67 points, and they will face West Brom in the final match of the season. Obviously, Arsenal should have taken all three against the Canaries, but they lost which means a lot of things are up to fate for them now.

    Best Case Scenario:

    The best case scenario for Arsenal is for both Tottenham and Newcastle United to lose at least one of their games. Tottenham face Aston Villa in Gameweek 37 and then entertain Fulham at White Hart Lane in Gameweek 38, while Newcastle are yet to face Manchester City and Queens Park Rangers.

    A loss for each of these teams and a win over West Brom will allow Arsenal to finish the season in third place and secure automatic qualification to the Champions League next season.

    In most likely, Manchester City will manage to defeat Newcastle, and if Spurs win their next two games, Arsenal can manage to end on fourth place and secure Champions League qualification.

    Worst Case Scenario:

    A heart-wrenching possibility for the Gunners, should they come fourth, and Chelsea manage to win the Champions League, they will have to make way for Chelsea. 

Tottenham Hotspur

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    Both Tottenham and Newcastle United are level on points currently with 65 points each.

    Tottenham seemed to be heading towards a potential end-of-the-season collapse, only to win back-to-back matches in quite convincing fashion.

    On paper, it looks relatively easy for Spurs, as they face Aston Villa and Fulham in their last two games.

    Best Case Scenario:

    If they manage to win both games, they will finish in third position.

    Worst Case Scenario:

    If they slip up against one of these teams, and Arsenal wins their tie against West Brom, and Newcastle wins both of their games, then Tottenham will come in at fifth.

    And like Arsenal, even if they do manage to finish fourth, the prospect that Chelsea might win in Munich is quite terrifying.

Newcastle United

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    This season, Newcastle United have been an utter joy to behold.

    Despite selling off their biggest stars, Alan Pardew has invested wisely and kept the morale high in the dressing room. Astute acquisitions of players like Demba Ba and Papiss Cisse has meant that Newcastle United are a hair’s length away from Europe’s most prestigious competition.

    Best Case Scenario:

    The best case scenario for the Toon Army is to win both of their remaining matches, and Tottenham to lose at least one of their matches. If such a scenario occurs, they will then clinch the third spot.

    Worst Case Scenario:

    The absolute worst case scenario is for them to lose both matches. This might see them end the season in sixth place.

    However, in my opinion, an even more heart-breaking prospect would be to come in at fourth and then to have Chelsea pry away their place with a win over Bayern. 

Verdict

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    The following results, in my opinion, are the most probable: 

    1. Arsenal will win against West Brom.
    2. Newcastle United will lose against Manchester City, while they will win their last match.
    3. Tottenham will win both of their games.
    4. Chelsea will not win the Champions League final.

    The table standings, in most likelihood, will look as follows:

    Club

    Total Points

    3. Tottenham Hotspur

    71

    4. Arsenal

    70

    5. Newcastle United

    68


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