Kentucky Derby 2012: Why Union Rags Will Give Michael Matz Another Win

Fortunately for Union Rags, the odds-on favorite rarely wins the Kentucky Derby.

Though Bodemeister enters Saturday's race with 4-1 odds, Union Rags is right behind him at 9-to-2—and with, seemingly, a better chance of winning, all things considered.

The horse, described as "really nice" by exercise rider Peter Brette, according to The Baltimore Sun's Chris Korman, has won three of his five starts, and in defeat, he's never been beaten by much.

As one of the only top contenders who's faced and beaten a fair amount of the Derby competition, Union Rags would seem a likely choice to be the favorite. But the fact that Bodemeister blew out the field in the Arkansas Derby put him one step ahead in the eyes of oddsmaker Mike Battaglia.

But that's fine with the trainer of Union Rags, Michael Matz. Since 1975, only seven favorites have emerged as winners.

Most of the criticism levied toward Union Rags has come as a result of how he's lost the races he's lost. In the Breeders' Cup Juvenile and the Florida Derby, he seemed hesitant to make his move.

The criticism doesn't bother Matz, who knows that his horse is capable of making the right break at Churchill Downs. He believes that in a bigger field, fewer of the horses will be conspiring to eliminate his—one of the favorites.

Plus, he knows how to commandeer a winning horse, having done it in 2006 with Barbaro, in a similarly wide-open field.

Since Barbaro, Matz doesn't feel as though he's had a horse with a chance of winning the Derby—until now.

The fact that he even allows a comparison between the two horses speaks volumes.

Matz feels good about Union Rags' No. 4 post position, which—though not ideal—will still allow the horse to run the race he wants to run.

As for those losses against tough competition in the Breeders' Cup and in Florida, Matz isn't worried. This is a different track and a different set of circumstances, and he believes they favor his horse.

It will be tough to win among so many fierce contenders, but Matz did it in 2006.

He knows how to do it again.