UFC on Fox 3: B/R MMA Staff Predictions

Jeffrey McKinneyMay 3, 2012

On Saturday, MMA fans will be treated to an exciting night of fights as the UFC returns to FOX.

Headlining UFC on FOX 3 will be Nate Diaz taking on Jim Miller in a match that could determine the next No. 1 contender in the lightweight division.

In the co-main event, the often outspoken Josh Koscheck will look to stop the rise of fellow welterweight contender Johny Hendricks.

In a middleweight showdown, dangerous Brazilian jiu-jitsu artist Rousimar Palhares will take on Roufusport product Alan Belcher.

Opening the main card will be a battle between heavyweight sluggers Pat Barry and Lavar Johnson.

Here are predictions for this weekend's big fights from Bleacher Report featured columnists Dan Hiergesell, Kyle Symes, John Heinis and myself.

Pat Barry vs. Lavar Johnson

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Kyle Symes: Many fans will be expecting a slugfest given these two fighter's backgrounds, and I believe that's how this one will start. The fight will change, however, when Barry gets caught and will look to utilize his improving grappling skills.

We've seen before that Johnson has had issues with grappling. Even the talented striker Shane del Rosario took Johnson to the mat in order to secure a finish.

I feel Barry has perhaps come to the realization that he won't climb the heavyweight rankings relying on just his kickboxing alone and will look for takedowns and submission attempts against Johnson.

A lot of people are expecting Johnson to lay down some heavy leather on Barry, and that's certainly not crazy to think, but I'm going with Barry in the second round.

Barry by submission

Dan Hiergesell: Lavar Johnson is coming off an impressive first-round TKO finish of the hard-nosed Joey Beltran, but he's still relatively inexperienced inside the Octagon.

Pat Barry, on the other hand, has been a heavyweight mainstay within the UFC for the past few years, showcasing devastating kick-boxing skills and tremendous KO power after his bout with Cheick Kongo (albeit a loss).

And even though Barry will give up roughly five inches to Johnson, he should still be able to get to his chin and test his will. I really don't see this going past Round 1. I can't really see Barry taking another loss to a mid-tier heavyweight.

Barry by first round knockout

John Heinis: After losing two in a row under the Strikeforce banner, Lavar Johnson made an emphatic UFC debut by knocking out the very durable Joey Beltran in January.

Johnson is exactly what he says he is: a power puncher who hates to see a fight go the distance.

In 21 fights (16 wins), not one time did the judges decide the winner.

Pat Barry has only seen one decision in 11 professional fights. While he is heavy hitting striker all the way, his grappling has improved in recent memory.

His most recent victory over Christian Morecraft is a perfect example, as "Hype or Die" actually managed to escape an armbar and had something that resembled a takedown defense.

Despite that, don't expect Barry to be looking for takedowns or submissions in this one: he still wants to stand and bang.

This one won't last long, but it will be fun to watch.

Barry via first round TKO

Jeffrey McKinney: Two dangerous strikers in Barry and Johnson meet in a bout that could be the fight and knockout of the night.

Barry is coming off a victory over Christian Morecraft. Though Barry picked up the victory by knockout, he showed great improvements in his submission defense.

Barry is known for his dangerous kicks and power in his punches, but he will have to be careful leaving his chin open against Johnson.

Johnson made a big statement in his UFC debut, becoming the first man to knock out Joey Beltran.

Fourteen of Johnson’s 16 wins have come by knockout. A majority of his fights have ended in the first round.

Johnson is a dangerous heavyweight who could have enough power to take out Barry.

This fight could go either way. I honestly don’t see it lasting past the first round.

My gut tells me that Barry will be the guy winning his second straight fight.

Barry by knockout

Rousimar Palhares vs. Alan Belcher

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Kyle Symes: This is a typical coin toss-type of fight. When picking a winner between Rousimar Palhares and Alan Belcher, it really could go either way.

The fan inside me wants to see Belcher win as he continues his comeback after injuring his eye in 2011. But the MMA analyst in me believes that Palhares' jiu-jitsu may be too much for the Roufusport product.

Belcher has a talented ground game in his own right, but a point brought up by another member of the B/R MMA staff presented an intriguing point when discussing this bout that is worth repeating.

Every opponent of Palhares knows what his go-to move and what the Brazilian is going to try to do. Yet, six of Palhares' submission victims still couldn't stop it.

Will Belcher be able to stop it?

Belcher will provide one heck of a fight, but I still see Palhares grinding out a victory.

Palhares by a close decision

Dan Hiergesell: Even though Alan Belcher has won his last three fights by early finishes, "The Talent" hasn't fought since September, making this bout with Rousimar Palhares somewhat of a comeback fight.

Palhares has been on a tear in the UFC, going 5-1 with four submission victories. His only loss came at the hands of former No. 1 middleweight contender Nate Marquardt.

Palhares is one of the best submission artists in the UFC, especially in the 185-pound division.

With momentum on his side, as well as a bigger core (not height), he should be able to muscle Belcher to the ground and implement his world-class jiu-jitsu. For Belcher's sake, the only way he can come out victorious is to keep it standing.

Palhares by second round submission

John Heinis: Rousimar Palhares looks to finally put himself into serious title contention at 185 pounds with his fourth consecutive win here.

"Toquinho," a fighter who has won seven of his 14 professional bouts with leg locks, is a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt who has no problem pulling guard and working his magic from there.

His opponent, Alan "The Talent" Belcher," swears he will not play into the bulky Brazilian's game.

Belcher also comes into this one on a three-fight win streak, looking impressive in his recent TKO victory over Jason MacDonald (he tapped to strikes) in September.

Belcher, who trains with Roufusport, has some wicked Muay Thai and is certainly the better technical striker in this one.

Of course, let's not pretend Palhares is going to be drawn into a stand-up battle. Although Belcher has earned his black belt as well, few would argue that Palhares is a superior grappler.

Unless Belcher can fight off a submission attempt and drill Palhares with some heavy ground and pound (ala Nate Marquardt,) we all know how this is going to end.

Palhares by second round submission (heel hook)

Jeffrey McKinney: Rousimar Palhares and Alan Belcher are two middleweights who are looking to go to the next level in the division.

Palhares is known for his dangerous submissions, specifically his leg locks.

Currently on a three-fight win streak, a fourth straight win could put Palhares in serious title contention.

Belcher is on a three-fight win streak of his own. What's more impressive is that he was able to bounce back from a near career-ending eye injury in 2011.

Belcher looked great in his comeback fight and proved that no matter how long you've been gone, as long as you train and prepare well, you can succeed without any ring rust.

This fight will be a true test for both fighters. One key to victory will be whether Belcher is able to keep the fight standing or Palhares is able to take the fight to the ground.

Another key will be Palhares' ability to stay mentally focused. But I believe he will be focused enough to pull out a hard-fought decision.

My heart feels for Belcher, but my gut is saying Palhares.

Palhares by split decision

Josh Koscheck vs. Johny Hendricks

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Kyle Symes: This bout is a classic example of a member of the old guard trying to hold his place in the rankings against a younger, up-and-coming fighter.

Josh Koscheck has been a staple in the welterweight division for years and has been through a ton of tough battles. Hendricks, meanwhile, is one of the most accomplished wrestlers in all of MMA and has some serious punching power, evident by his one-punch KO of Kos' former teammate, Jon Fitch.

Koscheck seems to have forgotten his roots in recent times and has obviously chosen to focus more on his striking. I believe Koscheck is the more technical fighter on the feet, but with Hendricks still able to utilize his wrestling successfully, I could see him taking Koscheck down if the striking game doesn't work.

Very few people not named Georges St-Pierre have been able to get Koscheck to the ground. Hendricks will certainly have his work cut out for him if he shoots for a takedown. With that said, Koscheck looks to be on the downside of his career after his less than stellar performance against Mike Pierce.

Hopefully, the move to a new camp and away from the AKA drama will make Koscheck a better fighter, but I still see Hendricks taking this one.

Hendricks by TKO

Dan Hiergesell: This fight has all the ingredients to capture Fight of the Night honors.

But with both Josh Koscheck and John Hendricks looking to secure the right to challenge Carlos Condit for the welterweight championship, we need to check our expectations for an all-out brawl.

Sure, Koshceck has the killer instinct to finish this fight, and Hendricks has some of the best hands in the division with his recent KO of Jon Fitch. But it's important to remember that both of these guys are very athletic wrestlers.

This fight will surely go to the ground and may even stay there longer than people would expect.

With that said, Koscheck's standup is too crisp and too in-and-out to just sit around and trade power punches with Hendricks.

Look for "Kos" to pick his shots, shoot for takedowns and smother the up-and-coming welterweight contender. Experience will also play a major role.

Koscheck by unanimous decision

John Heinis: Johny "Bigg Rigg" Hendricks was just another bearded face in the welterweight crowd coming into his UFC 141 bout with perennial contender Jon Fitch.

That all changed when Hendricks became the first man to finish Fitch under the UFC banner.

Now all of a sudden, Hendricks is (theoretically) one fight away from a title shot.

However, Fitch's friend and former American Kickboxing Academy teammate Josh Koscheck would love to get his name back in the title picture with a win here.

Given that both men are former Division I national champions in wrestling, expect takedowns to either be inconsequential or nonexistent in this one.

Should the fight miraculously stay on the mat for an extended period of time, Kos, a Brazilian jui-jitsu purple belt, will have the advantage.

I wouldn't put any money on that happening, though.

These guys are going to stand and trade until Hendricks once again shows off his impressive punching power and negates any chance of Koscheck vs. GSP III happening.

Hendricks by second round TKO

Jeffrey McKinney: It took Johny Hendricks just 12 seconds to knock out Jon Fitch at UFC 141.

Hendricks was already experiencing success before that fight with only one loss on his record. But the 12-second knockout over a guy who was possibly the second-best welterweight in the division put Hendricks on the map.

Hendricks will now get the chance to shock the world again when he takes on Fitch's former teammate, Josh Koscheck.

Koscheck has won two straight fights since losing to Georges St-Pierre at UFC 124.

Koscheck recently changed teams, which could be good or bad for a fighter.

If he can focus more on his fight and less on trash talk or excuse-making, Koscheck could find himself in a title fight again.

Both guys are capable to delivering powerful knockouts, and both come from a D-1 wrestling backgrounds.

Koscheck has more experience, but I believe it will be Hendrick's time.

This could be a stand-up war, with Hendricks getting the better of the exchanges. He has the power to knock out Koscheck, but I believe it could go all three rounds.

Hendricks by decision

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Nate Diaz vs. Jim Miller

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Kyle Symes: With Dana White confirming Nate Diaz will receive a title shot with a victory, all the pressure has been taken off Jim Miller's shoulders and placed on the Cesar Gracie product.

Both men have been on a roll recently. They've both also failed to realize their full potential. Diaz stumbled in losses to Gray Maynard and Rory MacDonald. Miller stumbled in his loss to current champ Benson Henderson.

Diaz is a dangerous fighter. He recently earned his black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu and is also a capable boxer. To his credit, Miller has become one of the best grapplers in the lightweight division. With that said, I believe Diaz will attempt to keep it standing while Miller will look to secure a takedown.

I don't see Diaz having the power to stop Miller with one punch. That will likely force Miller to eat one or two punches while working inside the lengthy reach of Diaz.

We've seen Diaz's offense stumble against top heavy wrestlers. I see Miller implementing a similar strategy.

It will be a close fight and Diaz will look to turn it into a “fight.” But I see Miller using takedowns and ground strikes to eke out a victory.

Miller by decision

Dan Hiergesell:This is basically for No. 1 contender rights within the lightweight division.

With a rematch between Benson Henderson and Frankie Edgar seemingly looming in the distance, Nate Diaz and Jim Miller will deservedly duke it out Saturday to control the next spot in line for the crown.

Diaz is coming off his recent destruction of Donald Cerrone, a fight in which he landed 238 total strikes.

Miller, on the other hand, is coming off a huge submission victory over Melvin Guillard in January, so he should be more than ready to continue his winning ways.

With that said, this fight has Diaz written all over it. He'll once again maintain a superior reach compared to Miller, and we've seen what Diaz can do with long jabs and hooks.

He'll also come in as the better submission expert. Miller is no slouch, but Diaz is way better off his back and should be able to use his limbs to keep Miller positioned.

Assuming Miller becomes frustrated on his feet after getting peppered for two rounds, he should look to shoot on Diaz in order to finish the fight in the third round.

That's where Diaz does his best work. Rolling, clinching, transitioning and using Miller's own moves to his advantage, Diaz will secure a victory before the final bell goes off.

Diaz by submission

John Heinis: A couple of Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belts square off in the main event that has serious title implications in the UFC's lightweight division.

Jim Miller, a Sparta, N.J. native, seemed to be destined for a title shot after winning seven UFC bouts in a row before dropping a decision to now champion Benson Henderson in August.

He has since rebounded with a submission win over Melvin Guillard (who Diaz has also submitted) at the UFC on FX event in January.

Meanwhile, Nate Diaz has looked impressive in his second campaign at 155 pounds. He has notched back-to-back wins over Takanori Gomi and Donald "Cowboy" Cerrone and has been assured a title shot by Dana White with a win in front of Miller's home crowd.

Diaz has shown that he can hang with pretty much any other lightweight on the feet, but he continues to struggle with well-rounded grapplers (remember when he lost to Joe Stevenson? Yea, neither do I).

In all seriousness, Miller has the wrestling and jiu-jitsu skills to neutralize Diaz on the ground and win a highly entertaining grappling affair.

Miller via unanimous decision

Jeffrey McKinney: In the night's main event, Nick Diaz will take on Jim Miller, with the winner possibly being the next No. 1 contender for the lightweight title.

Diaz has bounced around between the lightweight and welterweight divisions, with his most recent success coming at 155.

Diaz heavily out-struck Donald Cerrone in his most recent fight, using his trademark Stockton slap.

What makes the former TUF winner even more dangerous is his Brazilian jiu-jitsu. Out of his 15 wins, 10 have come by submission.

Miller is no slouch on the ground either. Miller is a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt like Diaz and has 12 submission victories to his credit.

Diaz will have the advantage standing up. But the key to this fight may be Miller's wrestling.

In his career, Diaz has struggled to overcome wrestlers.

This could be the true test for Diaz. But while he is a great fighter and can be frustrating to go against, I believe it will be Miller that frustrates him.

Miller by decision