Kentucky Derby Picks 2012: Bodemeister and Favorites to Forget

Still trying to sort out your picks for the 2012 Kentucky Derby?

You and everyone else with spare change to spend. This year's field is wide open, almost frustratingly so, with no fewer than 10 colts capable of finishing first in the Run for the Roses.

At this point, there's not much we can do but poke holes in each horse's candidacy. For these three favorites, flaws are easy to find.

Too easy to put money on 'em, anyway.

Bodemeister

Dropping dough on the odds-on favorite is never a particularly good value. Even more so this year, with Bodemeister taking the lead in that department at 4/1.

I like his trainer (Bob Baffert), I love his pedigree (son of Empire Maker) and I really love that he blew away the field at the Arkansas Derby by a full nine lengths.

But his racing career isn't even four months old. No horse has ever won the Derby with so little experience in his back pocket.

Bodemeister has the talent to win—and there's plenty of pressure on Baffert for him to do so, considering he named the horse after his son Bode—but he figures to be weighed down by 138 years of history, if not by his own inexperience. 

Dullahan

Dullahan is certainly a better value at 8/1, and he isn't lacking in experience. He's run eight races since kicking off his career in June of 2011.

Three of those have come at Churchill Downs, which would seem to give Dullahan a leg up on the competition.

Except that he's never finished better than third at the legendary Derby track, where he most recently came in fourth at the Breeders' Cup. The distance shouldn't be a problem for Dullahan, though the same can't be said for the dirt track itself.

Alpha

Nobody's suggesting that Alpha isn't a handsome-looking horse or that he doesn't look swift of foot on the track.

His issue is one of size, which matters more than ever in a tough, physical race like the Kentucky Derby. Alpha isn't particularly big or bulky, leaving him susceptible to getting bullied in the scrum that's sure to develop right out of the gate.

Then again, the 8/1 favorite is a strong late-runner and has shown the wherewithal to run through pain, as he did during the Wood Memorial.

Ultimately, though, in a field loaded with physical specimens, it's difficult to see a relative runt of Alpha's stature surviving and advancing all the way to the finish line.

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