UFC on Fox 3: Full Breakdown of Alan Belcher vs. Rousimar Palhares

Rousimar Palhares is becoming a cult hero in MMA circles. But when you cut through the tall tales and the aura and the mystique, when you peel away the flesh and tendons and break through the bones, therein lies the delicious marrow of truth.

And the truth is, Palhares is one incredibly good fighter. We all know about the leg locks. But there's more to it than that. Eh, maybe.

There's also the small matter of his opponent, Alan Belcher. Just some guy who used to be a top contender and could, with a win over Palhares, find himself there again.

When the fun stuff ends and the serious fight begins, here's how it all stacks up.

Stand-Up

Belcher is a Muay Thai expert who works well in the clinch. Unfortunately for him, the words "clinch" and "Rousimar Palhares" aren't really two great tastes that go great together. Because, when you're inside an Octagon fence, you don't, you know, want Palhares touching you under any circumstances.

Luckily, Belcher has a four-inch reach advantage. (Palhares is, after all, a tree stump.) If he stays on the perimeter and uses jabs and kicks, Belcher should be able to control this phase.

Advantage: Belcher

Wrestling

Don't get me wrong. I think Alan Belcher can win this fight. I don't think he's going to, but that's different from thinking he can't do it. 

Palhares has never beaten an elite fighter. That's a fact. And he has never held up consistently when the fight goes to later rounds.

So sure, Belcher can do it. But if he wants to do it, as I mentioned, he can not, and I can't stress this enough, can not come into physical contact with Palhares except to hit him.  

So for Belcher, it won't—nay, it can't—have anything to do with wrestling. Palhares has the advantage here; like everything else he does, he commits to each takedown attempt with every fiber of his being. But if Belcher can work the game plan everyone including him knows he needs to work, then wrestling is a moot point. Palhares has the takedown power. Belcher's counter isn't to fight fire with fire, but to avoid the firefight in the first place.

Advantage: Palhares

Submission Game

I'm not even going to dignify this one with an explanation.

Very large advantage: Palhares

Between the Ears/Intangibles

Palhares is not going to win the Nobel Prize anytime soon. But when you hurt people in the cage the way Paul Harris hurts people in the cage, you have to say he's in his opponents' collective head.

But Belcher has a secret weapon of his own: cardio. That's the deep water Belcher has at his disposal. If he's able to employ it, he may be able to level the playing field.

Slight advantage: Palhares 

Bottom Line

The pressure in this one, as I see it, is on Belcher. Going in, he has admitted his game plan heavily involves avoiding and, in the process, thwarting the game plan of his opponent.

That may not be how you win a fight like this. While Belcher is worrying and dancing and hoping to stay out of the danger zone long enough to take it into the third round, all Palhares has to do is be Palhares. And Palhares is one nasty, dangerous dude. No secret there. But Palhares' effectiveness isn't exactly predicated on the element of surprise.

Prediction: Rousimar Palhares, submission, first round