2008 MLB Preview: NL East

In all respects, the entire National League was flat out weird last season.

The New York Mets spent an entire month forgetting how to win, and ended up getting supplanted by the Phillies in their quest for the 2007 NL East division title. The San Diego Padres proceeded to choke away the final weekend of the regular season (this would have been the top story coming from the National League, if not for the Mets), and lost in a one-game playoff to the eventual NL Champion Colorado Rockies.

(I’m still waiting for Holliday to touch home plate—but we’ll get to that in another few weeks).

So where do we stand going into this year? Are the Mets going to collapse again? Is Carlos Beltran going to have to eat his words? Will Ryan Howard live up to his $10 million arbitration award? Well, let’s get to it!

To stay with the recent trend started by the AL Central, we’ll go in reverse order.

Florida Marlins (2007 Result: 71-91, 5th in East)

I really wish that it were 2009.

Why?

Because then I could be openly confident in saying that the Florida Marlins are going to the playoffs as the Wild Card seed, and would then represent the NL in the World Series, eventually taking home their third championship. And then my readers (all four of you) would ask “But wait—the Florida Marlins? Really?”

Yep, in studying the Marlins you’ll notice a trend. In 1997, the Marlins made (and won) the World Series. Then, six years later in 2003, the Marlins followed the same path to the World Series, again becoming champions. But this season is only five years removed from their past championship, not six, so does that make the Marlins contenders?

I think the safe bet is no.

Of all of the players that the Marlins lost over the offseason (Miguel Olivio, Aaron Boone, B-H Kim), there wasn’t a bigger deal made over anyone than Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis.

In return for their two best players, the Marlins received a third starter in Andrew Miller (5-5, 5.63 ERA), a center fielder in Cameron Maybin (1 HR, 2 RBI, .143 in 49 at-bats), catcher Mike Rabelo (1 HR, 18 RBI, .256 in 168 at-bats, 10/36 in throwing runners out), as well as three relief prospects (Burke Badenhop, Dallas Trahern, Eulogio De La Cruz).

In Miller, the Marlins add to a starting staff that’s fairly young with a lot of upside. Scott Olsen comes off of a season in which he went "shot-for-shot" with Dontrelle Willis for the most part (both had identical records, ERAs over 5.00, and were separated by only 13 strikeouts). Olsen is followed by Sergio Mitre (5-8, 4.65 ERA) and Rick VandenHurk (4-6, 6.38 ERA), while newly acquired Mark Hendrickson (4-8, 5.21 ERA with the LA Dodgers) becomes the resident greybeard on the Marlins rotation, as he’s the only pitcher who’s started over 75 games in the Major Leagues.

Suddenly B-H Kim doesn’t look so bad does he?

Over in the bullpen, Kevin Gregg will enter his second season as the Marlins closer after logging 32 saves in 84 innings to go with 87 strikeouts in 2007. Taylor Tankersley returns after a successful sophomore campaign (6-1, 3.99 ERA) and will be joined by Justin Miller (5-0), Matt Lindstrom (3-4), Lee Gardner (3-4), Daniel Barone (1-0 as a reliever), Renyel Pinto (2-4), and Logan Kensing (3-0). Now just by looking at wins and losses, the returning Marlins (excluding Gregg) compiled a 23-13 record, and averaged a 3.34 ERA coming out of the ‘pen. Not too shabby for an overworked, inexperienced team.

Rabelo and Matt Treanor will team up behind the plate in hopes of corralling the pitching staff, although the offense from behind the plate looks to be stymied, and production will have to come from other areas of the lineup.

Not to worry...

In the field, Dan Uggla and Hanley Ramirez will be expected to reproduce their solid 2007’s (Ramirez: .331, 29 HR, 81 RBI, 51 steals; Uggla: .245, 31 HR, 88 RBI) so that the blow caused Miguel Cabrera’s absence (.320, 34 HR, 119 RBI) won’t be so noticeable.

Solid seasons from those two alone aren’t all the Marlins need. Mike Jacobs will need to stay healthy and improve upon a career-best 20 home runs (from 2006), while Dallas McPherson will just need to be able to prove that he belongs at the Major League level after sitting out last year with a back injury and some questionable career numbers to date.

If injury problems or slumps arise, expect Jorge Cantu (this guy hit 28 homers in 2005—seriously?), Jose Castillo, and Alfredo Amezaga to see time in various infield roles. Just don’t expect a lot of offensive production.

Fast fact: Did you know that Amezaga hit over .500 (.538) in 2002? Now I’ll tell you that he did it in 13 at-bats. That’s not to take anything away from him though…I would’ve killed to hit .500 at any point, for any period of time in my life.

Joining Maybin in the outfield will be Josh Willingham, Jeremy Hermida, and Luis Gonzalez, who combined for 54 HR and 220 RBI in 2007 (220 RBI, 54HR, while Gonzalez and Hermida hit over .275). Cody Ross will look to earn some time in the outfield, after a strong second-half last season.

All in all, the Marlins have a bullpen that gained some valuable experience last season, with a starting staff that (if the previous years are any indication) will be on the rise. Their offense will have to make the adjustment to not having Miguel “Where’s the Buffet at?” Cabrera hitting for them, so expect the Marlins to start slow, but finish strong.

Are they a contender this year? No, but just wait until 2009.

2008 Prediction: 73-89, 5th in NL East

Washington Nationals (2007 Result: 73-89, 4th in NL East)

To say that the Washington Nationals “cleaned house” over the off-season would be a mild understatement.

The Nationals removed 33 players from last year’s roster, and introduced 23 new players to the organization. Among them? The Boone Brothers (Aaron and Bret), perennial head-cases Lastings Millege and Elijah Dukes, Canadian Pete Orr (although Stubby Clapp is still my favorite Canadian infielder), and Dennis Tankersley—an All-Star if you’re playing MVP Baseball 2005 by EA Sports (I’m now doing product placements for defunct products! Life is good).

On the infield, if this were 2003 I’d say that the Nationals would be contenders. However, 4/5 of this infield seems past their prime. Paul Lo Duca is coming off an injury-plagued season in which he totalled the fewest games-played in his career. He posted some of the lowest RBI and average totals of his career, and he threw out runners at a 22 percent clip—a percentage which marks a career-low, as well as a continuing trend in which Lo Duca’s effectiveness at throwing out runners has decreased over the past few seasons (2002: 28%, 2003: 25%, 2005: 24.5%, 2006: 24%, 2007: 22%).

This is assuming that Lo Duca is the starter however, as Jesus Flores, Humberto Cota, Chad Moeller, and Johnny Estrada were all brought in over the offseason. Now, Flores is the future in Washington, however the present could breed controversy as there will be some who are pining for Lo Duca to start, some will want to see the reigns handed to Flores, some will want to see Estrada given the opportunity to replicate his success of the past two years, and I’m sure there are some Chad Moeller and Humberto Cota fans out there that would at least like to see their guys given a shot.

As Don Knotts would say—“There’s too many catchers! Why are there so many catchers? The brochure said there’d only be a few!” (For the Family Guy fans out there.)

Dmitri Young hit over .300 for the first time since 2000 (coincidentally his second, last year in the National League before going to the Tigers in 2002) and saw a vast improvement over his severely injury-plagued 2006 season. However, Young is 34, and although NL pitching may extend his career, Young will start to decline soon and if Nick Johnson can regain his 20 home run/75+ RBI potential that he was tapping into prior to 2007, then there’s no reason the Nats shouldn’t give Johnson the opportunity to redeem himself at first base.

Christian Guzman and Ronnie Belliard are up the middle, but that’ll only be if the tandem stays healthy. After a disappointing 2005, as well as a non-existent 2006 season, Guzman seemed to be getting his playing legs back. However, Guzman proceeded to hurt his hamstring AND thumb, ending a promising campaign that saw him hitting over .300 for the first time since 2001. Belliard meanwhile has run in to some injury problems the past two years (playing below 100 games in both 2005 and ‘06—the first sub-100 seasons in his career), but worked his way to a productive 2007, sporting a .290 average, as well as his highest home run, RBI, and stolen base totals since 2005.

The brightest spot on the infield though belongs to Ryan Zimmerman. Coming off of his second consecutive 20 homer season, Zimms saw a moderate decline in his RBI totals (110 to 91), as well as a larger drop in his average, but his defensive play led the league in many categories for third basemen (defensive innings played, put-outs, assists, and double-plays turned—evidently his .955 fielding percentage doesn’t tell the whole story), so expect Zimmerman to continue in his development into one of the best third-baggers in the NL.

Oh, and he played 161 games—take that David Wright, one more game than you!

But like all families, we have to move to the dysfunctional cousins in the Nationals family—the outfield.

Over the off-season the Nats went out and acquired Lastings Millege and Elijah Dukes to compliment (um...yea that’s the word) Austin Kearns and Willy Mo Pena. Big Willy Mo seemed to find his stroke with the Nats last season, blasting eight homers in 37 games (he hit only five in 73 with Boston before coming over), and he also posted a big zero in the errors column in his time with the Nationals last season.

Meanwhile Austin Kearns seemed to find his power stroke AND his glove last season, rebounding from a shoddy 2006 and posting a career-high in assists and put-outs, and a career-low in errors (leading to a career-high fielding percentage).

Well now we’re adding to that with Elijah Dukes—who brings some potential power, a steady glove, and a whack of legal troubles—and Lastings Millege—aspiring rapper, high-fiver extraordinaire, and the Nats new center fielder. We all know that Millege has exceptional talent, like Dukes though, it’s keeping his mind clear of distractions that’s the hard part. If the two new additions to the outfield run into issues however, Ryan Langerhans and Rob Mackowiak will start to see some extra playing time.

The starting rotation is where the Nationals might get “shellacked” as your grandfather might say. Shawn Hill is a three-year veteran who has had some recent arm troubles, he has never thrown over 100 innings, and he's never had a record above .500. John Patterson has also had some injury troubles, but he has shown a flash or two of potential over the past six years, but he’ll have to prove that those weren’t mere flukes.

Jason Bergmann provides the Nats with a stable young pitcher although, akin to Hill and Patterson, injuries have been a problem for Bergmann. In 2006, he appeared in 29 games, starting in six, while in 2007 he started 21 games, finishing with a 6-6 record and 115.1 innings.

The rotation will be rounded out with two of John Lannan, Matt Chico (the leading candidates), Tim Redding, Tyler Clippard, and Garret Mock. I wouldn’t be surprised if all of these pitchers saw significant time in the bigs this season when you consider the health of Washington’s front three.

The bullpen was a source of strength for the Nationals last year. Although Chad Cordero blew nine saves (to lead MLB closers), Cordero also produced some dominant stretches throughout the season, which he’ll look to turn into a dominant season this year.

Jon Rauch ended up leading the pitching staff with eight wins (that's right—the entire staff), and Luis Ayala and Saul Rivera complimented Rauch’s production with solid campaigns of their own.

To fill out the bullpen, there will be a mix of youth and experience, however if the tried, tested, and true trio of Cordero, Rauch, and Ayala (if you wanted to ruin my alliteration you could call it a quartet and throw in Rivera) falter, the Nationals could free-fall faster than the Rolling Stones halftime performance a few years ago.

2008 Prediction: 74-88, 4th in NL East (However, you could make the argument that Florida will finish ahead of Washington)

Atlanta Braves (2007 Results: 84-78, 3rd in East)

Well for the Atlanta Braves, it was status quo this off-season: Let the high-priced free agents walk (Andruw Jones, Octavio Dotel) and fill those spots with low-cost, high-production options.

Well, they broke tradition slightly in trading for Mark Kotsay, but we’ll cut them a little slack I guess.

For the first time since 1996, the Atlanta Braves outfield will be without Andruw Jones, the hard-hitting, Gold Glove center fielder. In his spot will be Oakland import Mark Kotsay. Kotsay’s offense has never been overly astounding (11 homers, 60 RBI, .285 average—averaged over the nine seasons he’s played over 100 games), and although he won’t out-slug Jones, but if he can avoid back troubles Kotsay should hit for an average in the .285-.290 range.

Defensively the gap between Jones and Kotsay is surprisingly small statistically. In only one extra season (Jones hit the MLB in ’96, Kotsay in ’97), Jones has committed more errors than Kotsay, (44-39) and trails Kotsay in assists (112-111). Granted the difference in career defensive innings is expansive (Jones has never played fewer than 1300 innings—Kotsay has never played more than 1300 innings) but the potential is there for Kotsay to ease Braves’ fans pain of losing Andruw to the Dodgers.

As for the rest of the outfield, Matt Diaz and Jeff Francoeur return to preserve some familiarity. For the second straight season, Francoeur’s 'Franks' watched Jeff post a full season of work (162 games), and despite seeing his power numbers drop slightly (by ten home runs), Francoeur was able to drive in a career-high 105 RBI in right field, as well as capture his first ever Gold Glove. 

Over in left, Matt Diaz hit over .330, and over .300 for the second straight year, and improved in all facets of the game (errors down, homers and RBI up, average up—this kid comes to play), and his further improvement will be key if the Braves plan on moving on in the outfield without Jones.

The Braves have one of, if not the best corner-infield tandems in the league with Chipper Jones and Mark Teixeira. Both guys hit over .300, have 30 homer/100 RBI potential, and Teixeira’s sparkling defense at first may help Chipper improve on some solid results from last year. That duo could see the production drop a bit as Chipper isn't getting any younger, but there aren't a lot of tandems I'd take over them.

Brian McCann however will have to “up the ante” behind the plate to keep the Braves engine running. In 2007, with more at-bats than ever before in a season, McCann saw drops in nine offensive categories, while an increase in errors and fewer runners caught stealing translated into a defensive season also below McCann’s standard.

Up the middle, Kelly Johnson (the hot start and cool finish that murdered me in my fantasy league late last season) will be back at second base, for his second year at the position since switching from the outfield following Tommy-John surgery. Wait, position players need to get Tommy John surgery now?

Sidenote: Apparently this "arm surgery" fad is getting to be more popular than picking on athlete’s who date movie stars. Oh wait, no, I still have more fun picking on Tony Romo and the fact he dated Jessica Simpson. I mean, Romo had dirty thirds (following John Mayer’s sloppy seconds), but I feel really sorry for the guy who gets fourths (whatever they are) after Tony Romo. Ok. Back to the subject at hand…

Johnson says that he’s comfortable hitting anywhere in the lineup, as he says there are opportunities everywhere. However, if he hits like he did early last year, there’s no reason that Johnson can’t hit at the top of the lineup.

Meanwhile, his partner in crime will be Yunel Escobar—or in other words, the reason that Edgar Renteria wasn’t needed in Atlanta anymore. Escobar exploded onto the scene last year, batting at a .326 clip in 319 at-bats. If that’s not enough for you, he was able to play three positions (short, third, second) and his top fielding percentage was at (you guessed it) shortstop. The Braves brass is high on this kid, and word is that if he pans out, he could be an All-Star very soon. It certainly looks like he got off to a pretty good start.

As for pitching, the Braves actually made the Mets stronger in taking Tom Glavine off their hands. Although Glavine was 13-8 last year, both he and John Smoltz are over 40, and unless your last name is Clemens (with a little helper perhaps?) or Ryan (as in Nolan), pitchers over 40 usually curtail in effectiveness, and have to rely on guile. And in a competitive NL East, guile may not be enough.

In that sense, expect the Braves fate to rest with Tim Hudson (16-10, 3.33 ERA), as injury-prone Mike Hampton is expected to contend for the fifth spot (health permitting, as has always been the case with Hampton), and Chuck James will be asked which performance was the real deal: His dominating 2006 where he went 11-4 with a 3.78 ERA, or the middle-of-the-road 2007 where he went 11-10 with a 4.24 ERA.

If the rotation begins to falter, you can expect to see names like Jair Jurrjens, Jeff Bennett, and Jo-Jo Reyes get their shot on the mound, but with age, and a small sample size from last year playing a factor, whoever has the hot hand of those three may get the first shot.

Although the bullpen was a strong point for the Braves last year, it could provide a few question marks this season. The main one being how Rafael Soriano will adapt to a full season in the closer’s role, after just a month-long audition last season after the departure of Bob Wickman.

Other questions include: Is Peter Moylan just a flash-in-the-pan, or is the Aussie just that damn good (1.80 ERA in 90 innings and a 2.08 opponent batting average), will Mike Gonzalez be the same pitcher after Tommy John surgery that he was before, and can Will Ohman rebound from a rough 2007 (although his solution could just be to avoid Wrigley Field)?

For Braves fans though, the main question is: “When do we get back to the top of the division?”

Well, you’ll have to wait at least one more year to reclaim that NL East crown down there in Georgia.

2008 Prediction: 82-80, 3rd in NL East

Philadelphia Phillies (2007 Results: 89-73, 1st in NL East)

In 2006, the Phillies came second to the Mets in the NL West by twelve full games. Needless to say, they weren’t about to let that happen again in 2007.

And they’ll be damned if they’re just going to roll over and let the “new and improved” New York Mets just be handed the division in 2008.
   
Granted, the Phillies didn’t go out and add a Johan Santana in the off-season, but they did add some impressive pieces. Brad Lidge (until he proceeded to hurt his knee again), Pedro Feliz, Geoff Jenkins, and So Taguchi have all gained quality Major League experience in other markets, and know what it takes to win the close races and in the playoffs. Kris Benson (with crazy wife in tow) is hungry to make it back to the big leagues, and for some guys, that makes them more effective. With Benson we’ll have to see.

But we’ll go back and start in the outfield, where the Braves weren't the only NL East team to lose a center fielder as the Phillies lost one of their main contributors of the past few seasons in Aaron Rowand. With the addition of Geoff Jenkins in right, the offensive blow of losing Rowand will be easier to take, especially if Jenkins is able to produce a near-full season. If that’s the case, these two almost become comparable:

Geoff Jenkins (2004): 157 games, 617 AB, .264 AVG, 27 HR, 93 RBI, 152 strikeouts

Aaron Rowand (2007): 161 games, 612 AB, .309 AVG, 27 HR, 89 RBI, 119 strikeouts

Jenkins and Rowand also had similar walk totals (46 and 47 respectively) in those seasons, so if Jenkins is able to piece together a full season, the transition should be seamless offensively and defensively (over their careers Rowand has averaged 3.28 errors per season while Jenkins has averaged 3.7). The sticking point is Jenkins playing that full season, as the past four years his games-played have decreased.

Since Rowand is gone, Shane Victorino takes over in center, following a season in which he played in fewer games than in 2006, but he improved in nearly every offensive category except RBI and average. If the Phillies are able to set the table a little better for him this season expect Victorino to finally improve on that RBI total (46).

Over in left, Pat Burrell will be looked upon to protect Ryan Howard in the lineup, as Burrell brings a big stick (30 HR, 97 RBI in 2007) to the lineup, but also a small glove as he committed a career-high 10 errors last season, leading to a career-low .948 fielding percentage.

Behind the plate, the Phillies have two steady catchers in Carlos Ruiz and Chris Coste. Although neither will blow you away with their hitting (it’s not like Philly needs any more anyhow), both have proven themselves to be solid defensively, and very apt at handling this Phillies pitching staff.
   
While Atlanta has one of the most imposing corner-infield tandems in the NL, the Phillies have Chase Utley and Jimmy Rollins. Between them, Utley and Rollins hit .314 (Utley had the higher average at .332) with 52 home runs, 197 RBI, and 50 stolen bases. To put that in perspective, the projected infield for the San Francisco Giants hit 26 homers, 171 RBI, and stole 26 bases. They also only committed 21 errors between them, which is two more than Rangers shortstop Michael Young committed by himself all 2007.

On the corners they have Ryan Howard and Pedro Feliz. Now everyone probably knows everything about the past three years of Howard’s career (he’s averaged a home run every eleventh at-bat), but what about Pedro Feliz? 

Well, Feliz is hoping to bring some stability to third base for the Phillies. Although he’s nothing exceptional at the hot corner, Feliz will offer consistency on the left side of the infield, as the Phillies enter their third straight season with a new third baseman. Third time’s the charm, right?

As for the rotation, the opening day starter was announced as Brett Myers. In a season split between starting and relieving, Myers went 5-7 with 21 saves and a 4.33 ERA. Before last year’s move however, Myers was coming off of four straight seasons of 10 or more wins, and a record above .500 in three of those seasons. He’ll be followed by 45 year-old Jamie Moyer (whose ERA has gone up the past three years), injury-prone Cole Hamels (who if he stays healthy could easily get 20 wins), Adam Eaton (who should be good for another 10 -12 wins), and Kyle Kendrick (who’s coming off an impressive 10-4, 3.87 ERA rookie campaign). If injuries, struggles, or fatigue begin to play a roll in the rotation though, Chad and JD Durbin could pose as fill-ins.

Now to the bullpen, and with the injury to Brad Lidge (who was Myers replacement as closer) on has to wonder a) Will Lidge recover from arthroscopic surgery in time for the season and b) If Lidge isn’t ready, will Myers see time again in the bullpen this season? In the meantime though, Tom Gordon will reprise his closing duties from 2006, and the bullpen will re-arrange itself accordingly: JC Romero and Ryan Madson are back, while Francisco Rosario, Clay Condrey, Scott Mathieson, and Mike Zagurski battle it out for the final spots.

Although a division title isn’t in the cards for the Phils, it’ll be another card, a wild card if you will, that will determine their fate come October.

Ok, enough with the secretive language. I’m taking the Phils for the NL Wildcard.

2008 Prediction: 94-68, 2nd in NL East, Wild Card Winner

New York Mets (2007 Results: 88-74, 2nd in East)

I’m going to ignore everything else that’s happened to the Mets in the off-season and just key on one thing for a moment:

They signed Brady Clark.

I’ve been writing about how this guy is a curse to Major League ball teams every since that one game playoff between Colorado and San Diego when Brady showed the world why the only team’s he ever saw consistent time on were those miserable Milwaukee teams of the early 2000’s. Watching this guy play a bounce off of a center field wall is like watching four midgets get chased by a skunk: It’s amusing, but you know it won’t turn out well.

I was paranoid that he would land in Toronto and doom a promising Jays team, but now that he’s in New York? Well, if he’s still on your roster come playoff time, Mets fans better pray.

Anyway, back to the Mets (we’ll start with the rest of the roster, then get to Johan).

Gone from the outfield are aging veterans Shaw Green and Jeff Conine, while Carlos Gomez and Lastings Millege were both dealt in the offseason, paving the way for a little fresh blood to enter the confines of Shea Stadium.

Both Carlos “We’re the team to beat” Beltran and Moises “I pee on my hands before I bat instead of taking steroids” Alou are back after a couple of strong 2007 seasons.

Although Beltran saw his power numbers and walks drop, he was still able to post the fifth 20+ homer/100+ RBI campaign of his career, while swiping more than 20 bags for the first time since 2004 (split between Houston and Kansas City).

Alou meanwhile is 41 years old and coming off an injury-riddled 2007. Despite posting only his third season with fewer than 15 HR though, Alou was able to post the second-highest average of his career at .341. Although Alou may see his production drop a little more this year while missing a few more games due to injury, if he hits over .330 again—well that’s a lot of ducks on the Mets pond.

Rounding out the outfield will be recent acquisition Ryan Church in right field. A veteran of four seasons, Church has spent his entire career in the NL East, posting a .271 average with 35 homers, and 153 RBI. Nothing overly impressive, but he does own 4 homers and 12 RBI vs. the Mets in his career (both his best against any opposition) as well as a .317 average. Whether or not that success translates into consistency for the Mets or not, at least he won’t be hurting them from the other dugout this season.

On the infield, the Mets have the one guy you can never get, but always want in your Fantasy Pool: David Wright.

The only time that he’s hit less than .300 in a season was in 2004 when he hit .293 in 69 games. Since then, Wright has played in at least 154 games each season, hit at least 25 home runs, and brought in at least 100 RBI. If it wasn’t for the aging (and steadily declining) Carlos Delgado at first base, the Mets would fall into that “Elite Corner Infielder” combo category that I talked about earlier with Atlanta. However, with Delgado being 35, suffering from an average that’s been declining annually, and some career lows last year on offense, expect the corner infielders to be buoyed by Wright’s play.

Jose Reyes will return at shortstop after stealing a league-leading 78 bases last season, and he’ll be looking to continue his defensive development over the past few years (in 2007, Reyes played 1431.1 innings—the highest total of his career, and committed only 12 errors—his fewest in a full seasons work). 

His partner in crime up the middle this year will be Luis Castillo, who is hoping that his career can get back on track after a pair of shuddersome seasons in Minnesota. If Castillo’s wheels are oiled however, and he can get somewhere close to his steal totals of old (roughly 35-40) the Mets have one of the fastest middle-infields in the league which will also bode well for them on defense.

Although we’re still a little ways away from getting to Johan, I will say this—his presence alone will lighten the load on the Mets bullpen this year, as with Santana’s ability to go deep into games the Mets will hopefully be able to avoid another post-August 9th collapse.

Billy Wagner’s dead-arm should have (hopefully) amended itself, Aaron Heilman and Pedro Feliciano will hopefully see fewer than last year’s 81 and 78 (respective) games (thus preserving them for September/October) but will be expected to replicate last year’s strong stats, while Jorge Sosa, Scott Schoeneweis, and potential relievers such as Matt Wise and Steven Register will be expected to produce solid, and consistent production throughout the season.

Paul Lo Duca is gone, and in his place will be Brian Schneider whose primary role will be to build the starting rotation (and relievers for that matter) into a force to be reckoned with. Although if Pedro Martinez pitches like he did in his brief showing last season (2.57 ERA, 3-1), Oliver Perez shows that last season’s 15 wins weren’t a fluke (looking at his career, they very well could be), John Maine translates his 2007 success into 2008 success, and one of either Orlando Hernandez or Mike Pelfrey can get the Mets at least 9 wins (El Duque’s total last season), then handling this rotation shouldn’t be a problem.

Oh, and that Johan guy should help out a lot too.

To be honest, I’d be a hypocrite if I said that Johan Santana will be horrible this season after vehemently destroying Dontrelle Willis’ AL potential. Well, I’m not trying to avoid controversy or the anonymous posters; but Johan Santana will be good.

This is a guy who has only had three sub-.500 records in his professional baseball career: once in 1997 Rookie League (5 starts, 0-4 record), 1998 Single-A (0-1 in one start), and in 2000 with Minnesota (5 starts in 30 games, 2-3 record). This is a guy who has hit double-digits in wins every season since 2003. This is a guy who’s had over 235 strikeouts in each of the past four years. Santana is good, and in the NL he’ll only get better.

With an offense to support him that is much more potent than the one in Minnesota, Santana could easily crack the 20 win barrier for the second time in his career, as well as see his strikeout numbers remain around the 220-225 mark (considering the strong competition in the NL East). His ERA will probably be closer to 2007’s result (3.33) than 2006 (2.77) as he’s facing two strong offensive teams in Atlanta and Philly, as well as two dark horses in Florida and Washington, but the wins will be there, and they will be more than enough to ensure that this Mets team can stay competitive for the WHOLE year this time.

2008 Prediction: 97-65, 1st in NL East